Beating the drop by any means necessary

Early this morning Tim.

I actually think I quite like the way the Argentinians decide relegation. It took a little while to get my head around at first but I now think it is a good system. It would be interesting to see what the repercussions would be on the Premier League this season if this system were in place - would Portsmouth be relegated, for example?

https://the-fa-premier-league.blogspot.com/

Does that mean if a club ever does get promoted they are guaranteed three full seasons in the top flight?

No but if they have a poor season yet another club who scores higher has a lower average over the 3 seasons then that team will be relegated instead. Conversely, if they have a reasonable season but the teams below them had performed well in previous seasons then they could be relegated despite finishing near mid table.

River Plate are going to be in serious trouble next year, I reckon.

With those 66 pts accumulated in 07/08 wiped off, they will be starting next season around 10 pts adrift of the other relegation candidates.

River Plate fans I know seem very divided over Cappa. Yes, "he's an old romantic, whose passing game puts him right in line with the traditions of the club", but is that what River Plate need right now? They are in a relegation scrap, and arguably, need blood and guts.

One thing for sure, whatever type of football River play, they need to sign some strikers - River are woeful up-front and desperately need someone who can score goals.
...........

I was never any good at maths, but was thinking about this the other day - under the Argentina system of dividing points by games played over 3 seasons, this places the newly-promoted team at a definite mathematical disadvantage when accumulating points.

When 3 pts is added to a higher total, and divided by one more game, it is worth more than when a newly-promoted club gains 3 pts that get added to a lower total and divided by a lower number of games.

eg, if an established club beats, for example, Boca Jnrs 3-0 at home it is worth more than if a newly-promoted team beats Boca Jnrs 3-0 at home.

I think I've got that right?

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that, if by amazing chance, Man U finished in the bottom three, the Premier League would change the rules so that they couldn't be relegated. The entire Premier League set up, with at least three of the same clubs guaranteed to be in the champions' League every year, is designed to make those 'photogenic' clubs richer and richer, and the planned increase in parachute payments, is designed to ensure thatless fashionable clubs never even achieve the Premier League. The whole set up is designed to stop fair competition and is quite dishonest.

This is what i believe the Premiership Would look like to date:

MNU 87 90 82 259 86.33 1
Che 85 83 83 251 83.67 2
Ars 83 72 72 227 75.67 3
LIV 76 86 62 224 74.67 4
ASV 60 62 64 186 62.00 5
EVE 65 63 58 186 62.00 5
MNC 55 50 66 171 57.00 7
TNH 46 51 67 164 54.67 8
BLN 58 41 44 143 47.67 9
FLM 36 53 46 135 45.00 10
WHU 49 51 34 134 44.67 11
WIG 40 45 35 120 40.00 12
SUN 39 36 44 119 39.67 13
POR 57 41 19 117 39.00 14
BOL 37 41 36 114 38.00 15
STO 0 45 44 89 29.67 16
BIR 35 0 50 85 28.33 17
HUL 0 33 28 61 20.33 18
WOL 0 0 35 35 11.67 19
BRY 0 0 27 27 9.00 20

07//08 08//09 09//10 3 Seasons Average Finished
Man u 87 90 82 259 86.33 1

Chelsea 85 83 83 251 83.67 2

Arse 83 72 72 227 75.67 3

live 76 86 62 224 74.67 4

AV 60 62 64 186 62.00 5

EVE 65 63 58 186 62.00 5

MAN C 55 50 66 171 57.00 7

TH 46 51 67 164 54.67 8

Blac 58 41 44 143 47.67 9

Ful 36 53 46 135 45.00 10

WH 49 51 34 134 44.67 11

Wigan 40 45 35 120 40.00 12

Sund 39 36 44 119 39.67 13

ports 57 41 19 117 39.00 14

Bolton 37 41 36 114 38.00 15

Stoke 0 45 44 89 29.67 16

Bi 35 0 50 85 28.33 17

Hull 0 33 28 61 20.33 18

Wolves 0 0 35 35 11.67 19

Burnley 0 0 27 27 9.00 20

There is a flip side to the battle to stave off relegation, and that it difficulty getting promoted.

Try playing Championship Manager (or Football Manager nowadays) starting with a team outside the top flight in Argentina...

David, if a team has less than 3 seasons in the league then the total would be divided by the number of complete seasons the team has been present for so Burnley would have an average of 27, Wolves an average of 35, Hull an average of 30.5, Birmingham an average of 50 and Stoke an average of 44.5

I was wondering how that would work for newly promoted teams, but what mattydalton is saying makes sense, the only othe way i think it could work is if only maybe 2 teams were promoted and relegated and u are exempt from potential relegation for the first 2 seasons. I suppose if it was still 3 teams promoted and relegated, that would make give mid table teams more incentive to fight on til the very end, if the knowledge that 12th could potentially still relegate them.

But i think mattydaltons method is better!!

That is certainly how the Argentinian system works (I can't take credit for that Diego!). Personally, I quite like the idea as, like you say, there is always an incentive to push on. I don't think I would like to see the rest of the league being calculated on an average though - I am a Livepool fan but think it would be unfair for us to still qualify for the CL after such a woeful season. For the record, the Argentinean league only uses this average for relegation calculations.

The Argentinian method is ridiculous. Shamessly made to save the big clubs from trouble. Let them fall, I'll say.

Obviously it is pretty farcical, as the old cliche goes over the course of a season the table doesn't lie and the bottom teams deserve to go down. But i do think the system could be a heck of a lot worse than the argentinian method which to be fair has the potential to make for a pretty exciting end to season when for example the bottom team could have a lot less points than a team in mid table and they're fighting each other for survival due to the averaging out.

The teams all kno whats happening so its not really unfair in that regard. The biggests argument a team thats been in the league longer than 3 seasons who are fighting for their lives against a team newly in the league can have is that a win for them is only on average worth 1 point, but a team who have only been there a seasons victory is worth the full 3 points.

I definitely agree with Diego here, it would make for a more exciting end to the season as more teams would be taking risks. It would be interesting to see what effect this kind of system would have had on the Premier League over the last 5 years for example.


https://the-fa-premier-league.blogspot.com/

Very interesting and informative blog Tim, thanks!

Really highlights just how much football mirrors the ills of modern day society in how much money talks no matter where in the world you live.

Clubs' are no longer solely of social significance they are critically entwined in sustaining regional and local economies with their employment, tourism and merchandising capabilities....it's amazing to think what damage a few simple kicks of a ball can do to a communities' financial well being and as a consequence understanding the lengths people will go to protect their 'higher' status by manipulation of the rules.

Favouritism of the top teams simply makes a mockery of Fifa's slogan of 'My Game is Fair Play' though...should be 'Life's not fair so why do you think the game is!?'

Nice picture, Tim. Geography teachers across the globe solute you.

River Plate have been God awful since Passarella was manager never mind since Simeone's Championship win. That tournament produced possibly the worst champions to ever win, and don't even get me started on how they performed in both Copas - it was an embarrassment to such an illustrious club's history.

The problem has been down to finances, River don't own half of their players and because of this virtually none of the money raised is pumped back into the playing squad which means youngsters are brought through before they're anything like ready. What happened with Falcao still hurts me to this day and is a perfect example of the ineptness that is River Plate. And then to make matters worse we've had to suffer through players like Salcedo, Abreu, Zarate, and now Canales.

The club needs a complete overhaul from top to bottom and left to right. The first team squad is way to big so needs to be cut virtually in half, and most importantly the wage bill must be slashed. From what I'm hearing out of Argentina half of the playing squad are on phenominally high wages compared to that of the rest of the league, and not a single one of them is worth it.

"There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that, if by amazing chance, Man U finished in the bottom three, the Premier League would change the rules so that they couldn't be relegated. The entire Premier League set up, with at least three of the same clubs guaranteed to be in the champions' League every year, is designed to make those 'photogenic' clubs richer and richer, and the planned increase in parachute payments, is designed to ensure thatless fashionable clubs never even achieve the Premier League. The whole set up is designed to stop fair competition and is quite dishonest."

The shear negativity of stacepipes comments here are beyond belief. Despite being faced with systems clearly far more corrupt and tilted in favour of the big clubs he still choses to imply that we are somehow worse despite many of our top clubs having been relegated plenty of times from the top division. Lets face it, Newcastle were relegated only last season. Staecepipe would probably like to pretend they're not a big club as they haven't won anything in the top division lately but the fact is, they are a big club, with one of the largest fan-bases in the country which when they are doing well easily fill the third largest club football stadium in England. Negative comments like stacepipes just help help to propagate a feeling of despondancy and fatalism in fan's without addressing real fact or doing any favours, why can't we accept that sometimes we're not the worse at something and maybe our system is fairer and more acceptable that Argentiana's?

@David - well yeah but Chelsea would still have won the Apertura Championship this season. ;-)

@9 - No. Its quite simple to get promoted in Argentina. There is no league split in the second division or points average that is worked out for promotion, that system is only used for relegation. And yes, I am aware of the computer game you have referenced - which is hideously wrong. That issue was raised with the developers who haven't bothered to correct their mistake.

The issue in Argentina is not getting promoted its actually staying up.

Both Tucumán and Characita won promotion last season after finishing in the top 2 after 38 games but are headed straight back down. Although in essence, if Argentina wasn't using the average points total and Apertura-Clausura system they would still be occupying the bottom three anyway.

Quite interestingly, in the US, where they hold capitalism under such importance claiming to be the epitomy of meritocracy, they use their league franchises systems where promotion and relegation are simply non-existant.

anyway, Tim, you said big brazilian clubs were always able to bounce back from relegation right away (except Bahia), but you forgot that Fluminense not only fell to second division... it then fell to third division!

From the big brazilian clubs, only 5 were never relegated:
Flamengo, São Paulo, Santos, Internacional and Cruzeiro.

The fact Brazil only has a national league since the 70s (only state and regional leagues existed before), contributes to the fact there are still 5 "surviving" teams...

I detest the Apertura/Clausura system used by both Argentina & Uruguay, it opens the door to strange irregularities like the marathon "campeonato" final in Uruguay last year. But my question is wasn't that put in place so that the teams can "showcase" their players to the European clubs during the offseason, in a bid to recuperate some money?

BTW great article in World Soccer Report (regarding your Brasileirao 2010 tournament)... I thought the "long" national league had fixed the woes in Brazil's league, never knew how much those State Championships take away from the game.

In Brazil, in any given year, there are at least twelve clubs which can be Champion: Sao Paulo, Santos, Corinthians, Palmeiras, Flamengo, Botafogo, Fluminense, Vasco, Cruzeiro, Atletico Mineiro, Internacional and Gremio.
Every few years, a new candidate appears (e.g., Atletico Paranaense, Sao Caetano).
This means that, with only twenty clubs, the First Division in Brazil is much tougher than anywhere in the World.

A consequence is that it is becoming natural that the bigger clubs move up and down.
Another consequence is that the Second Division is gaining more and more respect. The past years, the club with the highest attendance in the stadium was in the Second Division (Corinthians in 2008, Vasco in 2009).

Just yesterday, Santos was champion of the State league, but lost the final to Santo Andre, which was in the First Division in 2009 and was relegated); coach Dunga certainly watched that match closely.

Post number 10 (mattydalton)

For what it's worth, Birmingham would not have an average of 50 as you said, but 42.5 (35 + 50 / 2)

Anyway ... very interesting article, hadn't heard about the 'averaging' scheme before. It's clearly designed to protect the 'bigger' fish from relegation. Quite simply if one of the well established clubs had a one-season nightmare and (heaven forbid!) finish in the bottom three, they would almost certainly be protected by virtue of their 'normal' (expected) points total accumulated in the prior 2 seasons. So ... a stay of execution would prevail, and they would have no gripes if they succumbed the following season to any equally poor points tally, which clearly severely dents their average.

The more I think about this scheme, the more I'm warming to it. Like any 'system' there will be people applauding it, others despising it, but you've got to say it's very different!

Another way of looking at this topic is this ... what is the point of reaching the Premiership, if you know you don't stand a cat in hells chance of ever winning it ... and I do mean EVER! It's the same story every season ... straw poll the managers and my money's on the fact that they've already worked out how many points they need to stay up. Before a ball's been kicked, that is the ONLY statistic a vast majority of them are concerned with. If you offered the 'averaging' points scheme, many of them would say 'Yes please', as they know damn well that their one 'bad' season will merely be part of the decision making process to stay up - not the ONLY one.

I can't say I agree with the bloke who states that the English game would stop being quite so egalitarian if clubs such as Man Utd faced a prospect of relegation; Plenty big clubs have dropped down over the years... Newcastle, Leeds... Burnley.... but if the risk of relegation for the elite clubs was symptomatic of a greater financial sufferance, what measures do we reckon the governing bodies would take? I agree that it is not just to protect individual teams simply on basis of status, but if the relegation of one or more such teams to the detriment of the overall fabric of the league, what action would we demand?
It is, to coin a phrase, a complete Titus Brambles. But whilst some folk might be inclined to put the ever-changing Brazilian 'system' down to a stereotypical quirkyness or their seemingly innate inability to organize a peace-up in a hippy's brewery, others might point to a more sinister factor; corruption. Whilst the two might seem out of step, this may seem to be as much a part of their national fabric as 'samba' culture.
But then, is it simply a case of corruption, or is it really because Brazilian (and also Argentine) football, quite literally could not afford to see institutional clubs falling from grace? Or, as is most likely, are all the above factors applicable?
I think the problems in Argentina & Brazil remind us that money is the great revelator and ultimately the great equalizer... for instance, once the financial bubble of the Premiership bursts and the 'decline' sets in, the playing field will ironically even out. We see the same thing in Scotland, where Rangers & Celtic are not sitting quite so comfortably at the top of the table now that the money has dried up. But is it for the good of the game? Or do we actually need the 'class' set-up and status-quo that might initially seem so unfair?

The piece reveals an extent of ethnocentrism that does not fit the footballing movements of countries that are geographically, demographically and historically not comparable with the English leagues.

Nevertheless, the facts do not support the claim that River Plate would be in trouble next year just for losing the 66 pts from two years ago:

Even if next year River had a poor season comparable to the present one (and it has been poor indeed), they would have an average of 1.312 pts. Combined with the average points scored over the previous two seasons, this would give a total average of 1.234. However, the current average to be automatically relegated is at .916 (Chacarita Jrs.), whereas the average to play the relegation play-offs is at 1.151 (Rosario Central).
Considering that all these values are representative of similar averages from the past years, with such a score River would be nowhere near relegation, and would score even better than the current last club not involved in the relegation zone (Racing - 1.205).

In conclusion, the chances that River would have to fight to avoid relegation, although not altogether impossible, are mathematically speculative.

The US is a single entity league--why would you send yourself out of your own league? The pending creation of a new "premier" league MAY rip the doors off the hinges--perhaps backhanding the MSL with an effective free-agency and relegations of sorts. And recently the whole US CUP was shred up to eliminate all but the top two pro leagues.

My question is if the rules in Euro leagues were possible to scuttle, wouldn't they try o save Newcastle and Crystal Palace--highly recognizable names, at the least? And on those lines, isn't the impeding collapse into oblivion by Palace an actual argument in favor of feudalisms?

Hi Tim,

Another excellent piece this week - albeit, shorter than normal :)

I like the Argentinian system of average points and the Apertura/Clasura. It means teams have to work hard to survive in the top flight.

If River go down it is up to the team to haul themselves back into contention and learn from their inability to survive.

Sometimes a big club needs to go down to come back stronger ie Newcastle, despite footballing bodies blatantly supporting the big names by any means necessary (as seen in the France v Ireland dodgy goal game).

Cheers,
TDT
https://www.thedirtytackle.blogspot.com

I am not a fan of the Argentinian (and Uruguayan, although here "only" two seasons are taken into account) relegation system but it has an additional advantage for the small teams who manage to qualify for the international cups.
A small team (ie Gimnasia) does well, reaches Copa Libertadores and loses its best players. The following season, even if they are struggling (because they lost many players and probably have a new manager) they can still concentrate on doing a decent job in the international cups because their points from the previous season will prevent them from being relegated...
(Think Bolton in the UEFA Cup a couple of seasons ago)

Actually, your projected average should drop to 1.100... But I'm glad it got you thinking.
Let's see if next time you are a bit more informative than us vs. them.

The system is most unfair on the teams who are newly promoted and then have a poor season - such as Chacarita - and get immediately relegated. If Chacarita, get immediately promoted again, they still carry forward the points that got them relegated a couple of seasons ago - and hence will need to have an excellent 2011/12 season just to stay in la primera. ie if they get promoted in 2010/11, they will need to get approx 60 points in 2011/12 just to stay in the first division, which is Copa Sudamerica form! They may as just as well wait one season more to have the 2009/10 points wiped off and then go for promotion.

As for River being relegated in the next season, I just can't believe it can happen. There is too much power in play (away from the pitch). How could a season not pass without the superclasico, River v Boca? Unthinkable! If the football authorities were to let it happen, the government would intervene!

Excellent article Tim.

Many comments here are referring to the averaging points over a number of seasons to determine relegation as the Argentinean system (or Uruguayan system). However, I was under the impression that this system is common across most of Latin America, I think Colombia, Paraguay, Bolivia and others all use this system. Perhaps you can educate us and let us know how prevalent it is.

The system is extremely unfair to newly promoted teams, and exists only to protect the big teams. Huge credit must go to the Brazilian FA for having the courage to change their system – hopefully Argentina and others will follow. As you say Brazil has benefited from this, which is demonstrated in the strength of their 2nd division.

If other countries follow perhaps we will see more strength in depth in their leagues too.

@34 yes, it happens here in Paraguay too, and i loathe it. Although it has saved a certain big team from relegation in the past...

Why is it that every week Tim's article descends into talk about the English Premier League?

Surely the point of having contributors like Tim is to provide content that is not simply another bland article about The Greatest League in The World?

It starts with someone making a reference or comparison with the Premier League, then a response, and then another and before long the comments section is filled with talk about English and European football.

It is the same whenever Tim writes about Leo Messi, before long the comments are filled with Messi vs Cristiano Ronaldo and ignores the point of the article.

Give Time some credit for his always interesting writing and lets talk about the article rather than English football, its not like there is a shortage of places to talk about that elsewhere.

i don't know if this has been said, but from the first couple of comments i think people aren't quite getting it. the total amount of points achieved over the last 3 seasons is divided by the total number of games played over the last 3 seasons in first division. so a recently promoted team's points are only divided by 38 games, not 38 x 3.
this means that recently promoted teams are forced to make it at least to mid table to stay up. it's harsh but that works both ways: Tigre, following promotion achieved 2nd place, then 10th, then tied for 1st and lost in a playoff, but that meant they had one of the best averages in the tournament. they recently finished very low (almost last I think) but those first great seasons gave them a lot of breathing room.

With averages of the years they have been in the premier league taken into account this is what the premier league would currently look like:

Man Utd 87 90 82 86.3
Chelsea 85 83 83 83.7
Arsenal 83 72 72 75.7
Liverpool 76 86 62 74.7
Aston Villa 60 62 64 62.0
Everton 65 63 58 62.0
Man City 55 50 66 57.0
Spurs 46 51 67 54.7
Blackburn 58 41 44 47.7
Fulham 36 53 46 45.0
West Ham 49 51 34 44.7
Stoke 45 44 44.5
Birmingham 35 50 42.5
Wigan 40 45 35 40.0
Sunderland 39 36 44 39.7
Portsmouth 57 41 19 39.0
Bolton 37 41 36 38.0
Wolves 35 35.0
Hull 33 28 30.5
Burnley 27 27.0

Clearly the final game couldn't save either of the bottom two from relegation, Wolves would need to win and Bolton lose to tie with them on points but Portsmouth would be very happy, with another season in the premier league guaranteed. They would need 45 points for an average of 35.0 next season though. At the top Champions League places would revert to the usual 4 with Liverpool being level on points with Arsenal should they win and Arsenal lose next weekend.

Personally, I cannot see how any one could justify this system

The three season average would assist newly promoted clubs to gain a foothold in the top tier over a decent amount of time. They are surely not included as part of the average, or do their second tier points count? Either way it is a good system. We still get relegations and promotions every year but they get a chance to establish, and it is not as likely to be the same clubs yo-yoing up and down. Bring it in in the EPL. (Not the two season thing though)

@38 as far as I'm aware, the averages are only used for relegation, not for qualification to continental tournaments. I could be mistaken though. Can anyone confirm this?

@24 robsep2b

Yes, you are correct - I completely missed that 35, I must have got lost in all the zeros!

https://the-fa-premier-league.blogspot.com/

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

Hahaha! That's criminal!

Thought provoking article, ruined by useless chatter of the premiership, it would help if people read tims article, where it does state that this ruling applies only to relagation not the overall position, eg if river plate finished bottom, and three teams go down river plate are saved and the three above go down, so on and so forth,
honestly i agree that the brittish leagues are corrupted, remember when the rovers won the prem back in the 90's? Notice that no "small club" has won it since? Coincedence I think not, remember a few years ago when motherwell finished bottom of the SPL and didnt get relegated? The story was Falkirks stadium wasnt big enough and a stadium share plan was rejected, fast forward a few years and Gretna a team with a lot more financial backing is allowed up with a stadium share plan, at the expense of a less profitable club, Dunfermline i believe?
It happens everywhere, the big clubs get the decisions over the small clubs, the penalties, the offsides, the money in the officials back pocket, had my rant, goin to bed :). Cheers

It's not really a league system...it's a ranking system like in golf (which is over 2 years). I don't get it, in football you can do both? There is ranking for International teams isn't there?

Sounds corrupt to me.

It is as pointless as seeding for World Cup and infamous coefficient in European competitions. All such solutions have only one thing in common: money. It is not a rocket science that systems like this are only implemented to benefit big clubs, which are - virtually - permanently safe from threat of relegation. English/European/World football is corrupted enough. There is no need to expand that swamp even more with relegation only for really poor, 39th game, accepting Celtic&Rangers straight into EPL or no relegation at all vide Mr Garside 2-tier Premier League.

You want to improve EPL&Football League. Remove parachute payments for starters. Give other clubs in the 2nd tier chance to compete. Use money from parachute payments to help clubs in 3rd,4th and 5th tier which going bust every 30 minutes. Even 300K-500K is enough to sustain such small clubs for entire season or two.

Hi Tim, great article as usual. I read in the excellent Futebol by Alex Bellos that in the Brazilian league they once also factored in average attendence into the relegation calculations. Made me think, what's to stop the bigger relegation-threatened clubs just letting everybody in for free in order to keep themselves afloat?

Is the chairman of Vasco de Gama still around? I forgot the guys name but he sounded like a total crook, albeit an entertaining one.

great blog as per usual tim

what influence do you think a game like football manager has on the wider football world? with otamendi his stature on fm10 is developing into one of the better centre backs in the game, i no this sounds folly but wonder whether it helps the players reputation? (for example going back a long way zlatan was a big star in fm before he really hit the heights irl)

6. At 10:36am on 03 May 2010, stracepipe wrote:
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that, if by amazing chance, Man U finished in the bottom three, the Premier League would change the rules so that they couldn't be relegated.
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Absolute nonsense. If Man Utd got relegated, they probably wouldn't have a very good team any more. The Premiership worships its star players- with no Cantona, Rooney, Ronaldo, etc. then the only way Man Utd would go down is with an average side, and a big club with an average side gets relegated (see Newcastle Utd, who qualified for the Champions League in this decade, see Blackburn who won the Premiership in 94/95 and were relegated in the late 90s)

I was astonished by your comment, but I suppose it shows the level of paranoia people sink to, or maybe you're an attention seeker. The system in England is not like Brazil. Apologies for this post not being related to South America.

48. At 09:46am on 04 May 2010, barnsie wrote:
great blog as per usual tim

what influence do you think a game like football manager has on the wider football world? with otamendi his stature on fm10 is developing into one of the better centre backs in the game, i no this sounds folly but wonder whether it helps the players reputation? (for example going back a long way zlatan was a big star in fm before he really hit the heights irl)
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The research for games like Champ Man and FM comes from football fans or journalists who work for the companies who make the games. Often they're asked to predict future stars. I disagree that Ibrahimovic was only rated at one point because of FM, he was always seen as a talented striker, he was playing for Ajax and one of their prospects for heavens sake. As I say, highly rated players on these games are already given high stats because of the opinions of fans and journalists working for these computer games companies who are watching the players. I don't believe that clubs are using them as scouting tools yet, although that could happen in theory.

i am well aware of that sub i actually provide the data for a non league side in england

i was refering to the fact zlatan was highly rated on cm even before he moved to ajax

also we are going off topic but various lower league managers have mentioned they have used the fm database to scout players from varying leagues

Great occasion for the Palace and the fans. It was really not an entertaining game but the point was taken and that's all that mattered. As for Wednesday, they should have defended much better than that

52. At 10:52am on 04 May 2010, barnsie wrote:
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is it?

A interesting topic, Tim. I think the averaging system for the relegation was not put up to protect the big clubs, but more for the "middle class" ones: those that dwell in the middle of the table, with the rare good season where they get a run at the title, and the occasional bad one. Lanus, Colon, Argentinos, the Rosario and La Plata teams in Argentina; Wanderers, River Plate, Cerro, Liverpool, Defensor in Uruguay... some of these seem to be eternally fighting for survival in the first division! With this system they are much better prepared to avoid relegation than the teams coming from the second division, which usually don't survive for more than one season - but is it a "statistically relevant" difference compared to other systems? It's much easier to plan the season to avoid relegation when you already know two thirds of the points you'll have at the end of the year.

And to #30: I don't think the system was set up considering participation in the international competitions. It's been around long before the time when more than two teams from each country participated in the Libertadores, and there were no Sudamericanas et al for the lower seeded teams. I think that's just a unforeseen side effect

The big teams can count on other kind of help... absurd ad hoc rules like the ones Tim described in Brazil... blatant help from the referees. They are to big to fail, just like the Greek economy seems to be to the Euro. By the way, much has been made in this blog about the large number of Brazilian teams reaching the final stages of the Libertadores. Well, they start with more teams than any other country, they are rarely seeded against each other or the Argentinian teams in the group stage. And all questionable calls from the great referees such as Oscar Ruiz and bald Paraguayan dude seem to go in their favour. For example, in the last team that qualified from the group stage this year was between Flamengo (that set up the Adriano-Ronaldo face off), or Cerro... a neigbourhood team from Uruguay with about 5341 fans. Cerro had to beat an Equatoria team by three goals to qualify; they failed. I didn't see the game... but I'm sure no one would have been much surprised if the referee would have ensured flamengo was in the round of sixteen. There's a bit of paranoia about referees favoring big teams from the large TV markets in competitions like the Libertadores... I wonder if the same thing is felt in Europe, say if you have a Bulgarian team playing M. United in the Champions; would they be competing about 11 or 14 men?

Nicolas Gaitan and Franco Jara are they good players? Jara is in the Argentina squad to face Haiti but so is Ortega? Will he be going to the World Cup? Cambiasso and Zanetti whats going on there, Diego please take them....

Interesting point but maybe no need to look so far since we used to have that system here! Tottenham went on to greater things after being PREFERRED to QPR back in the 3rd division south days.

Interesting subject Tim. In Bol they take the average over two years, not three. Rumour has it this was originally thought up in Argentina in the 80s to stop River going down, but I've never really taken note of the details so can't confirm if in fact it's true or if the accusation was made up by their detractors.

one good thing about the Argentinian method is that there are no end of season mid-table bores because the teams are still playing for the points for that season and the season after that.

OK, it's been labelled as a way of keeping the big clubs up here but the logic for having a pop at it is a bit flawed ... if the league table doesn't lie after one season of results it sure as hell won't after 3 seasons of results!

The maths would do all of out heads in and the lack of straightforward toe-to-toe games would be a little strange ... but it's really not that bad an idea, it really isn't! Simply for taking away those mean-nothing games. For relegation that is, not for the title ... that would just do nothing for the competition.

Don't ask me to justify my reasoning. I can't.

Twowardrobes, I agree that the elimination of meaningless games might be worth the favor the three year system does to the big clubs.

Truth is, as a Yank, I can't really get my head around either relegation or clubs going bankrupt. In the US, sports teams, like rich people, are too important to get what they deserve. Unlike, for example, poor and middle class people.

Tim, here in Ecuador the general belief is that sometimes relegation is the best, although harshest medicine against crooked management and lack of success in the national championship. This came to be after the relegation of my club, LDU Quito in 2000.

That year, coached by Manuel Pellegrini and after having been champions in 98 and 99, we descended to the Segunda after a failure to get into the Libertadores playoffs and a heart-stopping decision involving a dubious penalty for Barcelona. The team spent the whole year in the 2nd Division, we were the laughingstock of all the other teams and had some trouble against some provincial teams, although in the end the 2001 Serie B was ours. We came back in 2002 with a more mature and clever board of directors, and the general feeling the supporters had was one of happiness and humility at the same time.

This strengthened the team spirit and has led to three national championships, one Libertadores cup, one Recopa, one Sudamericana and a 2nd place in the Club World Cup, something no one would have dreamed of in 2000. I guess you should run a piece on this, it is a real rags to riches story.

By the way, great article. I follow your articles here and in SI every week. Anytime you are in Quito, drop me a line, it would be great to meet you.

"There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that, if by amazing chance, Man U finished in the bottom three, the Premier League would change the rules so that they couldn't be relegated."

Similar things have happened already in this country. In Rugby League a few years back, Huddersfield finished bottom of the Super League three years running and never went down. Paris once finished below Oldham and yet it was Oldham who they sent down. They wanted to extend the game into France but Paris finished soon after anyway and Oldham, one of the oldest clubs, went bankrupt.

Who cares about the South American systems all we should worry about is are the lower leagues getting a fair deal?The FA is run by bean counters and all they are intrested in is the top clubs,MAN U,CHELSEA,ARSENAL,etc any team not in the top flight are forgotten about or kicked into touch with points deductions fines bans on transfers,Bornemouth must have upset the FA by coming back from the brink,well done Bornemouth the fight against the bean counters.

Has anyone ever won the closing championship and still been relegated?



Regarding Maxwell, he isn't picke for Brazil because he doesn't start for Barca, regularly being behind Abidal, simple as that.

@64, we all do, as this column is all about south american football

Angel Cappa has been only in charge for 3 games and he has brought more pleasure to Rivers fans than we have seen in a few years.The atmosphere in the Monumental was terrific v Velez.We have returned to our game la nuestra crested by our club.Ortega the other night it was like going back 10 years he was such a joy to watch again and Buonanotte under this guy is going to be sensational.River has so many promising young players that the future is going to be great even if 2010/11 might be a little ropey for a while.Our 2 young carrileros Affranchino and Pereyra will play for the seleccion and Mauro Diaz is going to blossom under Cappa who will allow this old style 10 to do his stuff.
Ok we need a center half(Coates?)Center forward(Trezeguet?) keeper (Carrizo?)and a little more magic(Dallesandro)to create a title winning team but El Kaiser and Angel will lead River back to its glory

@huarazalegre #34

Its not Brazilian FA. I take it that FA stands for Federation? Well, CBF is a Confederation... which is a group of Federations. Each state in Brazil has its own Federation.

on the theme of south american football, last night was the 2nd leg of the octavos in the copa libertadores, including the clash of the brazilian giants Flamengo and Corinthians..
Flamengo won on away goals, Ronaldo still scoring important goals for Corinthinas though!

Huge club Corinthians, still to win a libertadores though..

Correct me if i'm mistaken, but aren't Flamengo and Corinthians the 2 best supported clubs in brazil ??

@64...
I thought this kind of insular attitude had disappeared back in 1953 when Hungary gave England a football lesson.

Does anyone know where this week's column is?? I'm getting serious Vickery withdrawal symptoms.

I guess Tim will write this week´s column after today´s Brazil´s official announcement of the players who will be making it to the World Cup? Maybe Tim will even be in the press conference.

In the wake of Dunga's depressing squad announcement, this delay is worrying.

I hope Tim hasn't done anything... gulp... foolish. He had so much to live for!

It's a thought though - no Ronaldinho, no Neymar, no Ganso.

Call me a glory hunter, but I think I'll be supporting Spain at this World Cup. Dunga's Brazil is not the Brazil we have known and loved...

Tim,

Is there any relation between a lack of article this week and your new blog picture?

Just to inform, Tim really was in the press conference. Just saw him on TV. SporTV program Tá Na Área was talking about the press conference and the international interest in it, so they interviewed some foreign reporters who would say their name and where they were from... and Tim was one of them. I had already seen him at other SporTV programs, as a guest commentator. Very cheerful and sympathetic bloke. Sometimes he doesnt seem so when answering to people here at his blog (looks a bit moody or sarcastic), but live at tv he really seems the kind of guy you want to talk and laugh with.

I guess he is too busy with lots of articles about South American selections, this week, to update his blog.

btw, Tim speaks very good portuguese... his english accent seems to come and go... sometimes, its really impossible to distinguish him from a native brazilian... check the youtube video "Tim Vickery Brazilian Commentary - BBC World Football Phone In". Tim immitates how brazilians would say "Woodgate". Its very funny and sounds like a brazilian speaking lol

not fully porno film conversant with Penarol's rich erotik history in Uruguyan football but, a player I do remember seeing a fair bit of them mid nineties as a bleary indir eyed teenager watching full indir South American football in porno seyret the early hours and Pablo Bengoechea was a fantastic midfielder if I recall, yeşilçam porno I would have loved to see him in Europe. I just son bölümü izle wondered what role if any he has in ligtv izle football right n

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