The costs of closed UK

Every ash cloud has a silver lining, Robert. Try to think outside the money box.

It's been a beautiful day today - people are out and about, the parks are full, kids are enjoying their school break and the sky is clear of clouds ... and noisy airoplanes.

Money is not everything!

I agree with plamski.

I read that 20% of all cloud is caused by aeroplanes, and as a result, in the no fly period in the USA after 9/11 day time temperatures increased by 3C and night time temperatures decreased by the same amount.

I went to Windsor today. No clouds, and no noise from Heathrow.

Bliss

Same old story Robert. From the owner of the Titanic pushing the Captain to rush full speed ahead and the possibility that the Polish President put pressure on the pilots to try and land in fog, these arrogant people bring disaster on themselves and many others in their pursuit of money and glory.

Are they going to ask for volunteers to take these first flights through this ash cloud, or is their participation going to be an unexpected and pleasant surprise.

same old same old

Quiet the skies may be, but for a lot of people, this weekend has caused great disruption and possibly hardship.

Many people work for air freight companies, shippers of fresh produce such as flowers, medical suppliers, humanitarian goods suppliers and so on.

You can't put the Genie back in the box now, too many people rely on aircraft for a living and a life.

This volcano has the potential to cause a lot of agro for a long time.
Bankrupt airlines or tour operators?
Bankrupt airports? Bankrupt families?
A "state of emergency" may have to be declared by European governments to repatriate all those stranded families to their homelands (overland or by sea).....or they may go broke, or lose their jobs, or end up homeless abroad.
Calais and Dover may have to be put under "temporary government control" to feed through as many foot passengers as necessary.
Normal service can only be resumed after the backlog of returnees is cleared.

Although at the moment we are in a total air shutdown, the effects of flying through low concentrations of ash and particles when they resume could be serious. We could find in weeks or months that the service intervals of aircraft, especially engines, have to be shortened. And if we find compressor discs compromised, or bearings damages by particulate laden lubricants, we could be in deep water - the supply chain for these parts can't just be turned up at short notice.

The companies which lease aircraft to airlines know this. I suspect Michael O'Leary knows this. And BA know this - their protestations are most likely posturing for (undeserved) government aid. Better for them to say "we're grounded because NATS says so" than "we're grounded because we don't want to damage our (or someone else's) aircraft".

If and when Europe gets flying again, it could be patchy, and subject to spells of grounding as further eruptions occur. While there may be flights soon, if the eruptions continue, there will be a loss of confidence that one can fly at a specific date a few weeks from now. Air travel around Europe could be "subject to geological and meteorological conditions" all summer.

Given how peculiarly damaging aircraft emissions are (many time the "carbon emissions" figure, which applies to pure CO2 at ground level, not NOx's at high altitude), I find this ironic - mother earth striking back.

A final thought: will it be just the price of aviation fuel which falls, or will the price of crude fall too with the sudden falloff in demand?

4. At 8:08pm on 17 Apr 2010, Peter wrote:
You can't put the Genie back in the box now, too many people rely on aircraft for a living and a life.
------------------------

Peter, you are in fact right! And maybe NOW it's the time to re-consider the share of importance, we've allocated to the air transport.

But true to its nature the monetary system looks at air transport as good profitable business as moves people and goods faster. It is the same old argument as with fossil fuels - unless the corporation extract the last profit out of it, they won't give it up!

That's why I do bear hope that Robert will be abel to see this crisis from a different angle apart from how much profit is being lost.

They say Windsor is quiet without flights. Nature eh and caution of scientists?
We will recover soon though

Are we going to run out of bananas?? When will food be affected??

I have to admit, that looking up at a beautiful brillient blue sky bereft of air traffic has been wonderful today, but it has made me question the validity of the met office predictions,after they predicted a bbq summer and a mild winter and well all know how that went, but, I think its the aviation industries wake up call. They could start to seriously look at their flying technology and ask how this sort of thing could be averted again, ie, how to make engines that DO fly in all conditions. If some plans can fly then maybe others can too, if only the airlines would invest in their fleet.
The second thing, why not use this time off? a good clean up and valet of all fleet planes, airports etc, review security and safety protocols, use the time positively!
I enjoyed silent skies until 2pm and a helicopter went over and then 6 small aircraft... funny no fly zone?! If the local airports are not under the same governing body as the main aircraft then surely we are now likely to see an increase in airtraffic for a while? in which case are they as safe as the main aviation authority given the volume of traffic they are likely to now have?

Hang on a moment. Why does this situation mean meltdown for the business world?
We (4 of us) have just returned from a 'short break' in Barcelona. We arrived at the airport in Barcelona on Thursday am to be handed a piece of paper which meant that we were on our own. After quickly reviewing our options (not many) we rented a car, drove the 850+ miles to Calais (£ for 2 days car hire/toll roads/diesel) managed to arrange a ferry booking (£40 + in mobile phone and internet charges for using our phone on the continent) for Saturday am (so more £ for 2 nights in hotels in France) got the ferry (more £) then road transport back home (more £) stopping at a motorway service station for lunch due to a crash on the M1 (more £). The airlines may be suffering but for plenty of other businesses it's bonanza time. The first thing I saw on the news sites when we got home was that we can expect food shortages due to the consequences of the volcano. No doubt there are lots of retailers rubbing their hands. Meanwhile the poor taxpayer (you and me) will be expected to bail out the unfortunate airlines, while the insurance companies shrug, claim 'Act of God' and decline to compensate me for all the extra money I've had to lay out to get home.

I understand the science as to what this volcanic dust can do to jet engines but I am failed to be convinced that this is a serious threat (at least for some flights). I have seen no one advise what sort of concentration of dust is likely to affect planes and, also whether some planes are likely to fare better than others.

I do feel this is an over cautious shut down of the skies and it is mainly due to a very slim chance of anything serious happening. No one is prepared to accept any risk as someone else will hold them responsible. Couldn't we just sign a waiver in such circumstances?

"It is possible that the Met Office is being too cautious", an airline executive said to me.

Well if I buy a lottery ticket it is possible I could win a lot of money. Anything is possible. Possible meaning 1:2 or 1:5000000000000000?

Until this cloud clears they can stay away from the airspace above me!

What matters more, their money and profits our our lives down here on the ground? Moaning minnies; they just never stop do they....

There's also a growing concern among airline executives that the government is not engaged enough on what they see as a catastrophe which - if airports don't reopen soon - will spread from financially stretched airlines to any business dependent on aircraft for shipping goods.

Growing concern that they are not being allowed to risk a crash into the city centre of Manchester, London, Edinburgh..... all because they want to make money. It's time these multi-millionaires get it into their thick heads that we do not give a toss about their profits, we don't think giving our lives at work is worth the bother, we don't think giving our lives in the battle for shareholder value is worthy of any of us.

If they aren't prepared for emergencies that is their lookout, their incompetence and I for one don't want to watch the flames shooting high in the sky from a school being hit by one of their precious planes. They'd be better sitting down, shutting up and asking why they had no contingency plan! Wouldn't there be a similar close-down if there was an extremely lethal, contagious biological agent deliberately let loose somewhere?


They have the potential to wreck lives, homes, schools and hospitals and buinesses. Are they insured for that? The UK farmers will be selling lamb, summer veg and we can stop thowing out perfectly good food just because it looks a little like food. We survived years of war so we'll be fine.

It is strange how passengers think they are the most important when actually it is the freight. The same applies to the railways.

Fresh fruit and vegetable prices are going to go up in the immediate term and then eventually disappear from the shop shelves if this turns into a protracted business.

The likelihood is that the rtaher rigid Health & Safety rules will be reviewed on the one hand and on the other that air freight shipments will be diverted to unaffected airports in southern Europe and the cargo then trucked to northern Europe.

If railways were more committed to freight movements than taxpayer subsidised passenger services then a lot of this difficulty could be mitigated.

A brutal lesson as to the control that Nature can impose on our unpleasantly arrogant culture is being handed out. We ignore this instruction at our peril. Our civilisation exists on a knife edge.

"It is possible that the Met Office is being too cautious", an airline executive said to me.

Fine. Fly your planes. Just not over me, OK? I don't want a Lockerbie anywhere near Brighton, thank you "airline executive".

So for travellers with bookings, is there any compensation?
For tour companies, airlines, and travel insurance companies - will they refund people on tis?

5. At 8:32pm on 17 Apr 2010, stevewo

Well the courts could tell the banks they are not repossessing the houses and any of those people fired from their jobs could probably win in a tribunal for the unreasonable behaviour of the boss who dares to fire them.

If an employer can't deal with these circumstances (their job is to deal with problems, to manage professionally - not act like kids chucking the toys out of their prams) then you don't want to work for such a prat, do you? I wouldn't want to work with such an unreasonable nutter

9. At 8:41pm on 17 Apr 2010, Timothy Nagle wrote:
Are we going to run out of bananas?? When will food be affected??

===========================================

Bananas are imported by ship and most supermarket chains have large stocks anyway. Shortages are more likely with fresh greens imported from East Africa, and the more exotic type of fruit and veg. Most of what we call fresh produce can be kept for quite a long time at carefully monitored temperatures and humidity levels.

That said speculators will inevitably make a move and cause prices to rocket. The wide boys in the City will be salivating at the prospect. The supply chain of aviation fuel in the UK is geared for little storage in the system i.e. fuel piped to Buncefield almost immediately is sucked through to Heathrow and then onto a plane. With zero demand the fuel companies will have a headache with where to put the stuff.

Likewise the supply chain of food for the airline catering industry will struggle. I cannot envisage these companies having contingency plans for this eventuality.

twistywillow

It has to do with height - those that fly low have been fine so far. When the cloud drops so the restrictions drop to the height affected. The big airlines don't have those planes. Even helicopters are flying much lower than normal - one emergency in the Highlands was a bit touch and go to get a seriously ill patient to hospital.

Robert, are you suggesting the airlines are fishing for a "banking" style unconditional generous handouts?

How long did the eruption last 190 years ago? I heard it was 2 years.
In 97 days' time, the survival of the airlines, if any, will be the least of ours, Europe's and may be even world's problems.

If flight ban continues for weeks/months more, how many non-domiciles will become domiciles?

A salutary lesson to our political and business leaders I feel. Man proposes, nature disposes. Perhaps we could make use of all the hot air emitted by the said leaders to power a fleet of hot air balloons which should at least allow us to take goods over the channel on the prevailing westerlies.

Planes make contrails which grow to form clouds which inevitably produce rain which makes us all want to go abroad to find some sun....by using a plane. Is the airline industry a self-perpetuating racket? The weather's been very nice since the cloud seeding stopped. If they stayed out of the sky for a few more months we might have that barbecue summer.

Actually, we had a barbecue today, fist one for a couple of years.

Surely it's just a matter of statistics. So far at least 40,000 flights have been cancelled. We have only anecdotal evidence about the low number of other flights that have encountered volcanic ash. We at least know that some of these have encountered serious, and potentially disastrous, problems. Although we don't exactly know the probabilities of a crash from engines cutting out from ash the numbers, such as they are, suggest that NATS and Eurocontrol are absolutely right in acting as they have. Any other action would be completely irresponsible.

Do not forget this is Britain in the 21st century. Any road death means the road has to be closed for many hours and if at allpossible someone arrested. I see that a one year old was killed by a dog today, so of course the dog owner who was not at the home at the time was arrested. Who was the person in charge of the child at the time and why were they not arrested instead?
The closure of airspace due to there being a dust risk is inevitable in the UK's no one must die culture regardless of how small the risk or the inconvenience caused. Also no state organisation, the Met office or Air traffic control, can take a decision that it may be held responsible for yet is unaccountable for the inconvenience or costs of its decisions.

I'm surprised COBRA hasn't met. Or has it, and they won't tell us!

I like sunshine. I went for a walk along the Grand Union Canal in West London today, it was very nice. I took a loaf of bread and fed some ducks. I even had a swan eating out of my hand. Good times :)

Travellers in Europe can find some ways to get home, assuming they have the funds. Is there any co-ordinated action between the airlines to get long-haul passengers into Europe from India, Dubai etc so they can then reach the trains and ferries (and vice versa for those trying to get back)? And are the governments helping to provide travel, food, accommodation for those stranded, especially with low funds? There are plenty of examples of people struggling, but very few examples of people being helped. Is the EU pulling together on this?

#18 Excellentcatblogger

'The supply chain of aviation fuel in the UK is geared for little storage in the system i.e. fuel piped to Buncefield almost immediately is sucked through to Heathrow and then onto a plane. With zero demand the fuel companies will have a headache with where to put the stuff.'


Interesting thought.

There are about 20million cars in the UK driving round with about 5 gallons of unused fuel (most people refuel when the tank is half full/empty)

100million gallons of capacity, if everyone decided to reduce the amount of fuel (by one fat passenger) they carried around on a daily basis (go on admit it, just how many gallons of petrol/derv do you need to make it to the nearest filling station?) The price of fuel would drop through the floor as a one time effect (British Gas's first privatised profits came from selling the storage gas in the gasometers)
The industry has almost zero storage capacitiy but they have continuous production facilities.

Consumers, in a consumption driven society you must vote with your wallet.

It's just beginning to look like a major business and economic disaster.
If it goes on many days longer, it will cease to look like a disaster and actually become a disaster.
I understand the concerns, but what can be done?
Even if the MET Office computer model is exaggerating the cloud size, who will be the first to gamble against its analysis? Even if the Met Office is being too cautious, who will be the first to gamble against caution?
I'm (almost) sure that the EU is atop the situation, considering various options especially financial planning re financially stretched airlines that may have to seek a bail-out.
Maybe I'm being naive, but has there been thinking about
1. Having the plane engines reduce heat by slowing the engines; this would increase carbon emission and use more fuel, but it wouild stop the volcanic ash which has entered the engines from turning into clogging sludge.
2. As the plume rises, has the atmosphere beneath the plume been tested. Is the volcanic ash now high enough that a plane could fly beneath it?
3. Are there fine enough filters/screens that could be used to prevent the ash particules from getting into the engines?
I really hope we're all flying soon...

If the eruptions suddenly take a turn for the worse, and UK airspace is closed for 6 months or 2 years, what impact to the economy will it have? Could we be talking about something huge like GDP dropping by 20% or something. Robert?

Are the postal services capable of rerouting things thousands of miles? For example could a spare part for an important machine that would normally be flown from the US to the UK be flown to say Turkey and then go by road to the UK? Are the postal services this flexible, or would the important machine be sitting broken for weeks whilst the spare part is shipped by boat?

#30. BluesBerry wrote:

"I really hope we're all flying soon..."

We'll be lucky. Modern jet engines get so hot that the ash melts. The particles are so small that a filter to block them out would not let any air into the engines! Jets can't fly either lower or higher as they would burn so much fuel that they would not get to their destinations.

Icelandic Volcano 10 : Air Travel 0

We need a string westerly to blow the dust away. The eruption on past activity levels could last on and off from a few months to a couple of years.

Our best outlook is a resumption of low pressures and westerly winds - however there would still be the problem of trying to fly to the east! Worst outlook is that the ash forms a belt right round the earth in which case start walking!

Forget those New Zealand Blueberries!

The economic aspect of all this is likely to be that the certainty of air travel will be gone for quite some while, for freight, airmail and personal travel.

The upside is that quick trips will be taken less often there will be more conference phone/video phone calls, food supply will revert to what is seasonal or travels over land or by sea.

The airline industry will take a considerable hit, possibly fatal to many carriers.

Any new 3rd Runway at Heathrow is likely to dead on economic grounds.

Socially people will learn to love the clean air and the silence and be even more against air the cost of air travel.

I recall that it took the last war for the idea that we would put up with land based aerodromes, before the war travel was by sea-planes as it was considered that the general population would not put up with land based airports, because of the noise and pollution. I wonder if this idea will be reconsidered along with the Russian experimental ground effect aircraft that essentially fly at sea level.(see ekranoplans)

#30 "Maybe I'm being naive"

That's the bit you have got right.

Two points.

1) The effect on commercial air travel is substantially greater than a terrorist attack would be. And yet the wailing and gnashing of teeth is less, presumably because no-one has died.

2) I recall that in 1944 Vesuvius erupted. I have seen a photo of B-24s over the volcano ( https://www.flickr.com/photos/8716975@N03/1369740258 )and I don't think they were falling out of the sky. Planes were damaged on the ground, but that doesn't count. Come to think of it, I don't recall any Allied raids in 1944 being called off because of atmospheric volcanic ash. The ME-262, a jet fighter was entering service in 1944 and no troubles were attributed to ash clouds. So lumbering unpressurised piston-engined bombers and Nazi jet fighters can do what our modern pressurised luxury sky-liners can't? Curious.

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

35. At 11:46pm on 17 Apr 2010, Paul T Horgan

But maybe the geology is different and the particles from Vesuius wouldn't be a problem for the B52 engines. I've no idea about plane engines, but maybe those properties were slightly different too? Maybe not.

All the same, it's all very well people demanding the risk being taken, but I reckon it is those who will have the plane land on them who should be catered for.

We managed during the war, we'll manage this if we have to too. One way or the other. Anyone thinking of changing their holiday plans to a cruise instead? Blackpool, Butlins? Iceland might be sending us dust, but maybe we'll do ourselves and our economy some good - all those UK producers of food... we've even got a shoe factory in the UK!

@Paul T Horgan: Last time I looked, there were no glaciers in Italy. If you do the tinyiest bit of reading, you will find that the glass-ash cloud is caused by the interaction between the volcano and the permafrost.

Therefore I have the joy of invoking Goodwin's Law for this thread.

Buying Puts in European airline stocks.

Every ash cloud has a silver lining.

On a personal level I know a number of people affected, one of which is a university lecturer from the US who is now going to have some real hard work in order to finish her students end-of-semester grading. That said, none of this is a real disaster for anyone of those I know affected. In fact it's quite a nice diversion from all this hyped electioneering and other nonsense news which was, until the end of last week, driving many of us around the bend.

There are serious problems as a result of the grounding of air traffic and there will be even more as the eventual resumption of flights will in itself cause major chaos and stress as aircraft, people and freight are shuffled around in a giant dance for the coming weeks and maybe months. We'll come through and we will have another salutory lesson in the problems of the monoculture.

That said, like others have pointed out, isn't the silence and the clarity of the skies beautiful ?

PS I think bananas are shipped rather than flown as they slowly ripen on the boats as part of the chain, but please someone pipe up with more facts!

i think its brilliant, i hope the volcano goes on for years,people can learn to walk for a change.good old mother nature sticking the boot in.

According to a report on Radio 5 Live some of the Chief execs of the airlines have grown a pair unlike our elected and unelected governments in Europe that we naively actually expect to lead! KLM put up a plane to fly at 40,000 feet yesterday afternoon and superficially there have been no adverse effects to the plane, but tests continue.

Whilst we have no political governement at this time due to the upcoming General Election, we do have an EU government. As this issue predominantly affects Europe and in particular the EU you would think that this marvellous institution would take a lead on the matter (I am being a teeny bit sarcastic here). President Rumple Pumple (what is his name again?) is doing a very good van Winkle impression, and will probably wake up at the end of summer.

I think it is relatively safe to fly in clear skies, but all routes MUST avoid volcanic ash clouds. This is where an integrated system of Euro Met Offices/satellite photos coordinated to map the danger areas should be implemented. Incidentally the maps produced by the Norwegian Met Offce looked a lot more professional and detailed than anythng produced by the UK Met Office so far - maybe the boys and girls down at Exeter really are totally useless as climategate implied.

The other area of concern is when ash particles fall down to earth. The risks and precautions healthwise need to be publicised not just for asthmatics and others who have breathing difficulties, but also for those who engage in vigorous sporting activities. There seems to be an inertia amongst quangoes/government departments to say nothing lest it is taken as an admission of responsibility or heaven forbid accountability!

PS Bananas from the West Indies are transported by ship in refrigerated containers. Typically they are picked when very green, and mature during the ship voyage and onward transport to shops in the UK. If you buy bananas from a newly opened box in the supermarket they will be cold to the touch. Basically the shipping method has changed little since the late 1950's.

If there is any gloom or misery to be found, our Mr Peston will seek it out and highlight it for us.

Since this is a national emergency, the answer should be to put it in the hands of the RAF. While jets cannot fly, old-fashioned propellor planes can handle it, since they fly lower, to greater tolerances and cooler (so they don't melt the ash).

Every serviceable propellor plane (such as the Fokker 50 which KLM have only recently given up on, or even Spitfires if possible) should be requisitioned brought up and kept airworthy and then used to fly stranded passengers and rotting freight around. If this means opening up intermediate airstrips because of their shorter range, so be it.

Since the military are running it, they have the expertise (along with redeployed civilian staff) to winkle out any terrorist threat.

It does seem to be turning into another economic disaster for Britain.
Salad prices in the supermarket yesterday were outrageous.

Thank goodness Gordon fixed the roof during the good times

A catastrophic economic disaster... just like the last one when one bank got bankrupted but the others made record profits, like many other businesses? Some will suffer other will thrive. Don’t worry people and businesses will adapt very quickly. We won’t eat as many green beans from Kenya, we won’t go for a shopping week end in New York, we will appreciate what the UK has to offer for vacations, etc. Businesses will discover the greatness of video conferencing, Livemeeting, etc.
It’s not all about money.

Isn't it marvellous. "The government isn't doing enough." What on earth do they expect? The Milliband boy up there with a vacuum cleaner, and Gordon Brown with a headscarf and mop?

That's the trouble with this infernal country. As soon as something happens the cry goes up that "The Government ought to be doing ...."

Grow up, get real, and start living and not expecting a handout.

#44 hang on a minute, who says its a national emergency?, to me its not,i cant afford to fly anyway,so its not an emergency to me, an emergency is when your lifes threatened,get life into perspective.

48. At 08:56am on 18 Apr 2010, ronnieboy1

It's not all about you Ronnie.
This directly affects thousands of jobs and indirectly hundreds of thousands and very possibly whole industries.

Enjoy the sunshine.

#49 what thousands of jobs exactly? what whole industries? people should get on with life and stop moaning, people are better off today and have more money than ever before.if a bit of dust messes up things for a while so what.

' Economic Disaster'?? What about all the other modes of transport that benefit from increased passengers? What about all the extended stays in hotels/hostels?

Which country are you living in ?

I see already that we have had a plane crash albeit it was a private plane which is not part of the no fly zone. Lets hope they find it was not part of the Ash which brought the plane down. THe authorities should be asking in the current climate what was so important that the plane needed to be taken out.

On a seperate note I understand that this morning someone is taking five Ribs across the channel to see if he can bring back stranded people. This should be commended and I hope if more TV hype is made of this then many more people may consider helping others and doing this. As long as your vessel is not used for hire or reward then most private and pleasure vessels could do this (insurance obviously being in place to do the crossing). The weather is certainly good enough.

Were I live we still have inter-island flights (although I have not heard a plane yet this morning) and every time I do I do wonder what if and who made such a decision and why is it so important that this flight has to go.

Sunny again!!!!

Yayyyyyyyyy!!!!

:D

There are probably huge economic issues if the planes are grounded for much longer, but before any airline comes looking for government bailouts, they need to show that they have done everything possible to look after their customers while they are stranded and that they have helped them to find alternative travel home. This is where the EU needs to act as a co-ordinator. If flights can still reach Madrid then this could be used as a hub for the long-haul travellers. Sure some people don't mind having an extended holiday and others are managing to get home under their own steam, but others are in difficulty. My husband is due home later today having taken two days from Munich. It has been an adventure for him. The people in Moscow being kept under armed guard in their hotel need help and this needs international co-ordination.

So like comment 26, I want to know if COBRA has met, but also whether we are offering help to anyone who needs it who is stranded in the UK .

If airlines go bust, not only will jobs go but fares will rise substantially because of reduced competition.

Loss of exports i.e. what this country needs to keep us out of recession is not good news.

Increaed prices for perishable foods such as salads and vegetables because they can't be flown in.

Give it another couple of days. If we are still not flying, I think the implications will become clearer.

At long last there are a few people who are starting to realise that this is a debate about business sustainability and the lack of any robustness in the model. Air transport of any sort is a luxury - in every respect. There are no exceptions. You cannot build a robust and flexible business or industry (such as air travel wrongly imagines itself to be) on the supposition that everything will be OK because we have a few decades of experience of relatively benign conditions.

The environment does not operate on that timescale. Normality, to a volcano like Eyjafjallajökull, is a 200 year eruption cycle. If the airlines tried to accommodate such factors into their strategic plans most of them would not be in business. The investors, managers and employees would then have to find something more worthwhile to do.

It's tough in business. Those in the air transport industry should stop bleating, get out before the whole thing crashes (bad choice of words) and knuckle down to some real, genuinely useful, work.

Who actually is running this Crisis at the moment in the UK government? There are millions of Brittons stuck abroad, UK businesses losing millions of pounds a day, if it gets much worse a possibility the food supply might struggle and all our government is worried about is that the lib dems have gained 8 points in the polls.

They need to get a grip!

Interesting that the airlines expect to be bailed out by the taxpayer, whilst the people who are stuck all over the place are being fleeced by hotels and told that this is an act of god and their insurance won't cover them. Ain't life grand?

Don't know how much is due to the sunshine or the lack of airplanes but there is definately a feel good factor around flight paths.

Well, there is some evidence that the 'local' New York, and surrounding 'environs', benefited from the weather changed after 9/11 when flights were grounded? Pollution, historically, is recorded to affect weather patterns? Perhaps the Icelandic ash cloud will provide some global cooling?

As for any food supplies imported into UK:

Much of our UK salad/veg/meat imports are via ships and/or trucking. So if your supermarket are raising prices - then report to trading standards? If you simply can't live without grapes, baby corn etc., then this is your wad-up - oops meant wake-up call?

My concerns are about loss of jobs that heavily rely on aviation food imports and the holiday industry?

The no-fly situation will not last much longer irrespective as to whether the volcano is spewing ash. Those that make the decisions are metaphorically speaking, at the end of a cul-de-sac with no where to go but in reverse. Business/governments will not tolerate the current situation and the losses to the economy, so expect a gradual back tracking of the no-fly zone. This has to be spun of course to save face,so expect planes to be flying at a different altitude or there being a change in the ash composition that does not affect engines, or similar.
Air travel will return to normal shortly.

On a separate note I would be very interested in the climate data for northern Europe for the past few days. Immediately after 911 there was a dramatic increase in watts/m of solar energy on the ground due to lower water vapour at high levels. Equally I suspect night heat loss would be greater, so what has the greater effect ? Would this change our thinking on the causes of Global Warming ? Or will we not be told ?

Can't believe how quiet it's been this weekend. No noisy jets coming into land. All I can hear is birdsong, bumble bees and the odd turbo prop. It's like being back in the 50's. Oh, and the sun is out!

However if this goes on much longer we all could be in a lot of doo doo.

Oh and for all the people who immediately blame Government for everything that goes wrong - what on earth do you expect them to do - fashion a huge cork and shove it in the volcano - for goodness sake - get real!

"a number of European airlines will run into financial difficulties and may need bailing out by governments" - er no thanks, I'll pass on that one; done more than enough bailing out of late. The shareholders will have to take the hit I'm afraid.

Absolutely typical of big business though, the minute something happens the plutocrats latch on to the taxpayer and try and tell us we can't live without them - give us the money or the airline gets it. Bad for people stuck in airports, for the rest of us it's a bright sunshiny day.

And if the Met Office isn't exaggerating then it'd be no comfort to me flying that there's a greater chance of my death, falling from the sky. I dare say most airlines aside from BA are rearing to get back into our skies again on their tax-free fuel but let them be patient. Put safety first, profit afterward.

It would only take the Yellowstone park caldera to blow to really show humanity how insignificant it is in cosmic terms.

It's hardly fair to blame the airlines for not having the technology to cope with, at most, a once in a generation volcanic eruption. I'm sure if they had spent the millions required to ash-proof their engines just in case (how many volcanoes are there in Europe anyway?) those costs would have been swiftly passed on to the passengers. Would we be happy with that?

Just as we complain our transport infrastructue can't cope with exceptionally cold weather but as paying passengers would never accept the costs associated with subsidising readiness for something that happens once a decade. So as with everything it's a case of cost/benefit considerations. Where the airlines are to blame is for not looking after those passengers stranded overseas. They might not be responsible for the situation but they surely have a moral duty of care to those who can't get home.

If we do start to see food shortages soon (I'm sure we could cope without bananas for a few weeks though it might affect Gordon Brown's mood on the campaign trail) then maybe we will wake up to how much unnecessarily imported food we consume. The oil will definitely run out one day, it will certainly become much more expensive in my lifetime. We need to prepare for that at some point, might as well start now.

I don't think there is any real danger at all to air traffic. And I'm not the only person beginning to think this. There has been a huge over-reaction to this by 'the authorities'. But there will be the usual government cover up. I bet the ash cloud will miraculously disappear early part of the coming week.

BSE, Bird Flu, satanic ritual abuse, meow meow, ash clouds, etc. etc.

Again and again, we have these panics which turn out to be nothing. We've lost the ability to think and judge risk. I blame the meedja and compo culture.

16. At 9:15pm on 17 Apr 2010, RCharles wrote:

So for travellers with bookings, is there any compensation?
For tour companies, airlines, and travel insurance companies - will they refund people on tis?

If you mean bookings with UK ATOL-bonded tour operators (of which I run one), the answer is yes. The tour did not go, and you are legally entitled to a full refund, and if you are stuck overseas, we are told we have a 'duty of care' to arrange all your accommodation. This is NOT the case if you have booked your flights and ground tour (everything from a hotel overnight to a full three-week safari or luxury cruise) SEPARATELY - as many are doing online these days without realising the implications.

Although us UK tour operators are hurting now, we are hoping that the public will lean that it is far safer to book their whole trip through one of us than to try and get it cheaper by booking overseas stuff on line. If we are still in business at the end of this, anyway.

#25. Keith wrote:

"Do not forget this is Britain in the 21st century. Any road death means the road has to be closed for many hours and if at all possible someone arrested... The closure of airspace due to there being a dust risk is inevitable in the UK's no one must die culture regardless of how small the risk or the inconvenience caused."

It was inevitable that the "health-and-safety-gone-mad" brigade would latch onto this one.

You seem to conveniently overlook the fact that there are restrictions in place over 20 countries. And also the fact that volcanic ash is known to damage aircraft engines.

4. At 8:08pm on 17 Apr 2010, Peter wrote:

" ... too many people rely on aircraft for a living and a life ..."

Not for much longer Peter, volcanic dust or not:

https://tinyurl.com/yghws74

https://tinyurl.com/yh8fnqf

https://tinyurl.com/yypqzc4

https://tinyurl.com/ylzhs3v

So few people aware of the problem, still less understanding the implications; so little time.

As the majority of food/non-food goods imported into UK are either transported via ships and/or trucked in - there will be no excuse, what so ever, for profiteering by supermarkets or fuel suppliers - full stop! If you suspect over-pricing - report to Trading Standards and/or Office of Fair Trading or your own MP!

Perhaps we all might focus our minds on how over-reliant we have become on certain 'items' over-dependently being delivered by air-freight?

#62 "Business/governments will not tolerate the current situation and the losses to the economy, so expect a gradual back tracking of the no-fly zone."

It's hard to reply to comments like this without being flippant. So instead I'll quote a well-loved Scottish engineer: "Ye cannae change the laws of physics".

Interestingly, one airline is concerned about exactly this sort of pressure: https://tinyurl.com/y764qxj

It would be ironic if, later this year, we see huge numbers of aircraft grounded for months waiting for spares instead of grounded for a few weeks waiting for the dust to settle.

no 44 Brilliant. "Every serviceable propellor plane (such as the Fokker 50 which KLM have only recently given up on, or even Spitfires if possible) should be requisitioned brought up and kept airworthy and then used to fly stranded passengers and rotting freight around. If this means opening up intermediate airstrips because of their shorter range, so be it."
Just a few problems though. Most Spitfires (and there aren't many left" are single seaters so only a pilot could fly them. A plane with a propeller is more than likely a turbo-prop, a jet engine geared down to drive the propeller. Old Brittania, Vanguard, and Viscounts were turbo-prop. The reason they were retired was because the airframe had reached its working life and deemed no longer safe. Even smaller craft use jet technology so most helicopters have safety concerns if there's dust around hence he need for modifictions to work in Afganistan.
We could of course requesition GA aircraft which might seat one/two/or perhaps half a dozen. Where to get the pilots? Most GA craft are limited range as well.I'd love to see a feet of wartime aircraft ferrying tourists, but it can't happen.
For safety reasons airspace needs to be closed. UK airspace is heaviy overflown as continental and US navigate Great Circle routes. Those planes are at 36 to 45 thousand feet for 3 to 4 hundred miles. Internally British flights soon reac that altitude and air lanes pass over London Birmingham Manchester Liverpool Glasgow and Edinburgh. The towns and villages under those lines as well as he cities themselves contain a major portion of the population.
I'm sorry for the inconvenience to travellers. No one forced University students to travel round the world just before finals. Airlines should be able to bring long haul passengers back to southern Europe, but I suspect in these days of low cost fares the bean counters haven't had time to get together with the lawyers and big passenger insurers to sort out what is cheapest and least likely to end in court.

Wonderful to see The Planet Earth gets its own back. All those nasty people who abuse the planet by flying everywhere for unimportant and irrelevant business rendezvous -When we have the internet.... All those people going on holiday when there is supposed to be a recession - then claiming they have no money to get home and expect the government to bail them out. "Nice one!" Planet Earth. I will be voting for you at the General Election.
I write this from my Garden on a beautiful April spring morning. I can hear birds and pigeons cooing and the sky seems bluer. I live twenty miles from Heathrow and thirty miles from Gatwick. Glorious Peaceful fulfilment. Who needs to go abroad when we have this wonderful land?

#67. #typicallistener wrote:

"I don't think there is any real danger at all to air traffic."

Then I suggest you pay a visit to the specialist forums and look at the photographs of engine damage caused by volcanic dust. The problem seems to be that it is almost invisible and its melting point is lower than the temperature of the engines, leading to the various pipes and outlets in the interior of the engine becoming blocked.

"And I'm not the only person beginning to think this."

Nutters love company.

59. At 10:37am on 18 Apr 2010, Marleysmum wrote:
Interesting that the airlines expect to be bailed out by the taxpayer, whilst the people who are stuck all over the place are being fleeced by hotels and told that this is an act of god and their insurance won't cover them. Ain't life grand?

Absolutely. Isn't the irony bitter.

- - - - - - -

56. At 09:43am on 18 Apr 2010, DevilsintheDetail wrote:
If airlines go bust, not only will jobs go but fares will rise substantially because of reduced competition.

Loss of exports i.e. what this country needs to keep us out of recession is not good news.

Increaed prices for perishable foods such as salads and vegetables because they can't be flown in.

Give it another couple of days. If we are still not flying, I think the implications will become clearer.

And yet...No lessons will be learned about complacency. The airlines have enjoyed 70 years of benign climate. But 70 years is nothing in cosmic terms. And, as ever, I'll bet not so much as a whisp of a thought has been given to contingency plans - so that things that hitherto must be flown (they say) can be delivered elsehow.

Very soon the world will be facing a far worse, man-made crisis. Oil will be running out and there's no way enough space for biofuel - so our great and wonderful oil-driven industries including air travel are going to have to find something else to do.

Iceland should be prosecuted.

This is a relatively small eruption, exacerbated by water (ice) at the mouth of the caldera.

A medium sized thermal detonation would stand a good chance of plugging the volcano but at the very least melt a substantial amount of the ice.

International pollution by a country whether man-made or not, should be pursued in the courts.

It's OK. The last time this volcano erupted, it only went on for two years.

Also, it's a bit unfair to complain that the Government isn't paying any attention to the problem. After all, they have an election to fight, and quite properly their only interest is in retaining power. And the past few days have thrown them the quite unexpected boon of getting on board the Lib Dems' enormous demographic of people who want to implement an amnesty on illegal immigration, join the Euro and abolish the national defences. Sorry, I mean "the Lib Dems' enormous demographic of people who like Nick Clegg, because after all that's what counts". No wonder Labour is so excited. Don't spoil their party by suggesting that they might actually like to do something in the national interest.

Response to post #56 @09:53. Another doom-monger.

Majority of British exports are already trucked out of UK via the best, over regulated, most professional and most highly taxed transport industry?

As for imports - there will be illegal profiteering - but majority of our imported salads and veg come from European growers who have no excuse for over-charging. Report any abuse to Trading Standards or your local MP.

There are always alternatives, although to find them requires more thought than a lot of people are prepared to put in... and sometimes who can blame them, when so-called 'insurance companies' are falling over themselves to renage on the grounds that the disruption is 'not covered' and governments such as India's are making complete unhelpful nuisances of themselves quibbling over visas instead of helping people.

And the impact on me? I am a judge for an international competition and there are quite a few books in transit from the US... fortunately I have been able to arrange for PDF copies so despite our looming deadline most entries will get considered even if the 'hard copy' does not arrive in time! As I said, if you think a bit, you can solve many problems: and I've been in discussion with the competition organisers for a couple of days as soon as it became apparent this was not going to blow over (sorry) quickly.

Im so very glad that everyone is enjoying the sunshine without planes, but think of people that were relying on them, like myself and my fiancee relying on them to fly my family to Jersey for my wedding day in 10 days. We don't know if anyone will get here now, including my parents!

Isn't it time we had a response from the government about to deal with the situation, support for the businesses impacted. It would be good to see the parties getting together to give a coordinated response with-out political advantage being taken during an election period.

Another silver lining of Icelandic volcanoe?

According to some news/media reports - some of our UK troops injured in Afghanistan are being air-lifted by US choppers and flown for treatment in the USA.

Thank you USA armed forces - let's hope this continues - apparently the US troop survival rate for rapid US airlift is higher than UKs? - no airlift at all via lack of UK MoD choppers?

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

I envy a lot of the people commenting on here who do not have sympathy for the airlines or business generally. They must have a money tree with no need for employment or benefits. Lucky them, all that and blue skies too.

Bail out airlines? Are these really businesses that can't be allowed to fail? If so, exactly where is the line going to be drawn on bailouts? Frankly, I find it disgraceful that this is being suggested!

Mother Nature has reminded us, yet again, that we can't control this planet.It's a natural disaster, and even if our airspace clears, the winds will blow the ash across other countries, so other airspace will be affected. Until the ash falls to the ground, I suspect flights all around the world will be affected for some time.

This whole situation is making me very angry for several reasons:

1. After 9/11 and 7/7, I find it extraordinary that airlines don't have a 'Disaster Plan' in place. This would have covered contingency plans to transport passengers and goods by other means, involved negotiations/agreements with other transporters to do this. Equally, companies who usually use air transport should have the same.

2. The Internet provides the facility to have video conferences with anyone, virtually anywhere in the world-with the credit crunch and the ensuing difficult conditions, this facility is surely much cheaper than flying everyone all over the world for meetings? If people had been using this there would surely be less reliance on air travel in the first place, and less disruption now.

3. What on earth is going on with all these stranded passengers-families in particular who may not have sufficient funds to manage to return at their own cost? What about those whose visas have expired? Is the foreign office helping these people? Even more appalling is the way they are being forced to manage on their own. Surely if hotels aren't getting new passengers in they have accommodation for those who are stranded? All the information being put out in the media suggests that the airlines are obligated to get their passengers to and from their destination by other means if the passenger so requests. Yet it seems very difficult to get hold of anyone at an airline to sort this out. Airline desks are closed, telephone lines aren't being answered etc. And what has happened to those people who were already in the departure lounges? Have they been allowed back out?

4. Insurance companies refusing to help people - typical really, good old small print saving them money!

5. Alternative carriers charging much higher rates for stranded travellers. Surely the saved money on unused aviation fuel can be used to offset this for people? What about the organisations who help bring people home when they are stranded after an airline goes bust? What are they doing?

6. Supermarket prices going through the roof already, despite their assurances that the majority of their goods are transported by road?

7. I would rather hitchhike home than risk flying at this time. Being stranded is surely better than being dead? If that light aircraft crashed due to ash it is inconceivable to risk flying ANY plane. Our local air ambulance isn't even risking it, and I can't believe pilots would consider such a risk. I hope airlines aren't pressurising them to fly by threatening them with their jobs. If crews and passengers are stranded in the wrong places, get them on coaches/trains/boats to the right places. Is it REALLY that difficult to be proactive about this?

All in all it seems to me a lot of companies are more concerned about the money than the people who are stranded. At this rate we will have a Dunkirk situation just to get people home.

On the upside, quiet blue skies, (though strangely I can hear a small aircraft from my local airport in Lydd in the air just now!) and more UK seasonal produce in the supermarkets can only boost British farmers.

We are being forced to consider how to conduct our businesses and lives in a greener fashion when hitherto this has been ignored. Surely that can only be a good thing?

Instead of moaning and wringing their hands, the airlines should be sorting this out-the PR boost for the first one that does can only have a positive knock on effect - people will remember the airline that cared enough to get this sorted out first.

This is exactly how it will be if Labour and/or the LibDems win the election.

Labour will do so much more damage to the economy nobody will be able to afford to fly and all the airlines/airports will go bust.

The LibDems will put a 10,000% tax on all flights so nobody will want to fly anywhere anyway and they'll increase fuel tax so you won't be able to afford to drive to the airport. On top of that they'll reduce the speed limits to 20mph so it will take you longer than your holiday to drive to an airport anyway.

:-)

With a bit of luck the current situation will rid the world of the weird, smug and empathy-free Michael O'Leary and his unpleasant facsimile of an airline. The faster Ryanair goes bust, the faster the average level of customer service in all businesses in all sectors throughout Europe will rise by 75%....

All this disruption will be more than worth it just to see the TV pictures of a dishevelled O'Leary being pelted with rotten fruit by former passengers while shuffling down the road to sign on at the Dublin Jobcentre.

#73 Dunstan wrote:
It's hard to reply to comments like this without being flippant. So instead I'll quote a well-loved Scottish engineer: "Ye cannae change the laws of physics".
------------------
As a chartered engineer myself I am quite aware of the laws of physics, although cannot identify which law you seem to be referring to, apart from gravity.

You seem to have missed my point, and then contradict yourself by posting a link confirming exactly what I was implying.
The laws of physics do not come into my argument, the law of money however does.
Of course it is pure speculation as I do not have a time machine, (as it contradicts the laws of physics), so we can only wait and see as to whether I am correct.
As a famous cliche writer once wrote ' watch this space'

Off out to enjoy the cloudless skies. Now that really is a rarity nowadays.

The smugness of the posters here is beyond comprehension. Enjoy your blue skies, whilst I try to find a way to 5,000 miles away to get to a family member on his deathbed.

Apparently there have been jet test flights by brave KLM pilots? So far ok?

I have been sitting in a well known UK airport since Thursday recieving very little assistance or information from the airline or the airport. Have i got this correct in thinking that the air traffic control service have made the decision to close UK airspace based on the results of a computer simulation rather than the sattelite images ? ( Which British Airways have now called into question ). When the "Dust Settles" sorry wrong choice of words!! What happens if it transpires that the "Met office" computer simulation is found to have been wrong? Was it Michael Fish who said "We don't have anything to worry about" and Sevenoaks became known s "Oak" overnight? In which case the whole closure will have been based on "Computer says no!" On a human note hotel rooms in a certain hotel locally have miraculously jumped from £65 to £195 per night - an increase which curiously occured on 15.04.2010 Keep the comments coming I'm enjoying The read !!!

Re #25. At 10:04pm on 17 Apr 2010, Keith wrote:
,Do not forget this is Britain in the 21st century. Any road death means the road has to be closed for many hours and if at allpossible someone arrested..etc.etc,
Keith, the Jeremy Clarkson anti Health and Safety viewpoint is all well and good, but the reason we have such restrictive and cautious legislation is because of our good friends the Ambulance Chasers. Once we imported the no win no fee compensation culture from America that meant that there were no such things as 'accidents' anymore. Somebody somewhere must be to blame for what happened and when the lawyers identify them they sue them for everything they can get. If a single plane had crashed because of the ash cloud then the Met Office, Nats, the CAA and whichever airline's plane was unfortunate enough to be involved would all be on the hook for millions of pounds. The bigger rogues in these situations are the insurance companies, I have no insurance for anything and sleep soundly at night, if everyone else did exactly the same then the parasites who run these companies might actually draw up policies which cover people against the kinds of events that you 'need' to be insured against and not spend all of their time finding ways to weasel out of paying anything out at all. Insurance Companies are just bookmakers offering you unattractive odds on whatever event you want to insure against and then welshing on their committments when a big payout is on the cards...

Be interesting to watch where Rolls Royce shares go next week. Damage to aviation as whole taking them down, or likely increase in demand for spares taking them up.

Oh dear ... Moderators!

Basically, the current standstill in the UK aircraft indsutry and airports is what we will get under another 5 more years of you know who - strikes, mayhem and jet fuel unaffordable with a worthless £ GBP sterling and a bankcrupt UK economy!

Don't say I didn't warn you!

Don't panic! Aviation fuel in UK is untaxed, therefore no loss to UK tax income.

Majority of imported veg/salad are grown in, and come from, Netherlands, Spain and Portugal via refrigerated lorries. No problem.

Majority of flour based products are grown in Britain or arrive in Britain via ships and distributed by lorries. No problem.

Energy supplies are not reliant on air freight. No problem.

Meat supplies, not reared in Britain, are imported by ships distributed by lorries. No problem.

However, if your famous supermarket ready-meals rely on chicken meat imported from the Far East by air with less restrictions on animal welfare - well, we might all want to think about that?

If you experience any rise in prices from any of the above, you are being ripped-off and report to your local Trading Standards and/or your local MP?!!!

I guess this will be the death knell for some airlines like SAS which was already struggling. The situation won't be allowed to go on if test flights show no effects. Another week or so and the election would have to be delayed with so many Brits out if the country. The crisis implications haven't been fully understood yet - this could create huge economic problems plunging Europe into recession. The legal implications will drag on for a long time.

Speaking as a person who is slightly affected by this, but not seriously affected, I'm quite enjoying the current situation. Perhaps it's a wake up call to all of those smug people who used to think that we were in full control of the planet, and that we didn't need to worry about Mother Nature. Sorry folks, even with all of your wonderful technology, our existance on this planet is very, very fragile, and could be ended tomorrow. Take heed, learn from the situation, and we might just stand a chance.....

Am ashamed to admit, having searched, I can find no information on what UK imports/exports are genuinely dependent on inbound or out bound air freight? Presumably airmail will be affected the most?

MP travel allowances will be reduced - oops - forgot MPs don't work this time of the year but usually on holiday in the best destinations this time if the year - unless they are irritated and grounded by an election!

As for tax implications - aviation fuel is untaxed in UK.
As for staple food imports they always arrive via ships or via lorries.
As for oil and petrol - that is via tankers.

Report any profiteering to Trading Standard, OFT or your MP. If your MP is not remotely interested - then go to TheyWorkForYou.com?

If there is any 'profiteering' by ANY retailer, ANY MP., or any petrol station - then are breaking the law - as they are not affected by supply!