Blood, bees and banking: theatre and the credit crunch

Paul mentions " a couple of semi-agit vaudeville songs pillorying the financial elite, but otherwise the actual banking system does not come in for much scrutiny."

Maybe...
A. It's hardly inspirational, on any level.
B. It doesn't have a tangible, human-scale interface, there's no "it" to be hurt by clever lyrics, biting sarcasm etc.
C. By partaking in the counter-movement, you change yourself and thereafter hope to change others. It's the people, stupid....

It's about time the arts said something useful about the recent economic "strategy", instead of simply trying to make money from it. The arts were sadly lacking in the "boom" times; as art chased the money, rather than money chasing art.

It's a long way from Egon Scheile, or the Bloomsbury Group......

drama is either comedy or tragedy. what we normally get is propaganda, agendaism or titillation [its so predictable i can run off a typical bbc drama script in my head and i know when the female nudity will come in].

is the credit crunch a comedy or tragedy? do people know the difference?

the basic problem of society is philosophy. sometimes its poor or perverted philosophy and sometimes its just a lack of it.

The credit crunch is what happens when philosophy is regarded as something with no use. Which allows those with spells to practise their mantras unchallenged and for the consequence darkness to spread.

the good society belongs to those who can articulate it and know how to defend it.

instead we get moral relativism which denies even the existence of the good never mind that there is a hierarchy of good and that it is rational to choose the better over the worse.no. we get the 'all philosophy is equal' mantra. Well listen up. it ain't.

so whatever modern dramas deals with they do not deal with our choices of philosophy?

so the credit crunch came from a philosophical choice. no one forced us to listen to the chicago school. no one forced us.

#3

We all fell for the Chicago school doctrine. How could we resist it?

They had cunningly managed to reassure us that it was good to maximise our own self interest, as this was "proven" to lead to the greater good.

How dare we heavily tax the rich & successful - they are creating jobs for everyone!

The trick of borrowing from the future to lavish today, is soon becoming exposed as the scam of the century.

4. yes

drama is an art and if an art it must have a benefit greater than self promotion of the artist [which what is usually called art in the 'modern' world]

if one goes back over the arguments of the credit crunch [and wanted to see what useful dramas we could have] by presenting that in an analogy we have to ask 'what was it like'?

like a person seducing a rich man to break up his marriage to 'a good woman' to gain his money?

like a security guard being persuaded to look the other way while a robbery went on?

like a peasant king who is dazzled by wealth of the merchants and so sells his people in slavery and dooms them to an eternal debt?

to find the drama we ask 'what was it like'?

actually thinking about it iraq came about by listening to the neocons. no one forced us. the main difference was there was a million strong march against it. which makes it an even greater tragedy.

or is it? it can only be a tragedy when those who committed the fatal error recognise it as such. I'm not sure they do. They still say it was the right thing to do. The neocons are still in the FO and increasing their grip on it.

so getting back to the thread Greenspan looked shattered when he said on tv that now he thinks there were flaws in the model [something brown has never admitted yet]. That is the climax of the credit crunch tragedy. the recognition or exposure of a false belief among those who promoted it.

so another 'what was it like' could be

how an arrogance in their own intelligence made them make fatal flaws that destroyed a financial system.

I Was Wrong! Alan Greenspan

the real tragic admission comes in the vid at 7.50 'you have an ideology...'.

the vid before that is the build up and consists of various denials and attempts at distraction.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55-A1-D3MR0&feature=fvw

nulabour still see no flaw which is why the polices like pfi, privatisations, light touch regulation, weak oversight on the energy companies who can charge what they like etc haven't changed. To be fair they recently said they will drop school league tables for 'report cards'.

The assault on SATs is, in my view, another attempt to hide from regulators/the public unpalatable indices of how damaging policies are now adversely affecting our society, just as Greenspan's conceptual model/ideology blinded him. It's the ceteris paribus clauses which get them every time. I perosnally don't beleievthey were blind to them, thy just ignored the evdience becasue it was convenient to do so.

SATs are proxy verbal, statial ad non-verbal IQ tests, and the flawed conceptual model underlying the neocon model lies in its politically correct assumptions about human cognitive diversity and the impotence of the environment ('markets') to positively make corrections relative to the negative, i.e. dysgenic effects. A close examination of the markets for predatory (sub-prime) lending will reveal the swelling lower part of the ability distribution (for whites as well as non whites), but especially Black and Hispanic in the USA, whilst in the UK it's Muslim Asian and Black - and the shrinking upper half of the curve. This is just a function of mean differences and TFRs overall.

We need to keep the KS3 and KS3 SATs as they provide critically important trend information given the strong positive correlation between IQ and GDP, and negative between TFR and GDP/IQ. We need to ensure the same testing standards are maintained year on year and that they are free from political interference. This has not been the case in recent times, which is why I suspect neither the US nor UK governments were innocents as Greensspan tried to make out.

[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator] others saw this coming, and warned. I know this all too well, well before ETS came on board :-(

Those who warned were too high placed not to have been heard. They were heard and ignored because it was convenient to do do. This was mass white-collar venality - not criminality as it was legal - the lawyers saw to that.

AlISA ZINOV'YEVNA ROSENBAUM

It doesn't take much to see this incorrigible, narcissistic, self-interest manifest itself even in exchanges in some of these economics blogs. It isn't a new phenomnenon, and it isn't uniformly distributed across all groups either :-(

"the credit crunch came from a philosophical choice"

Oh, and not from a massive trade imbalance between USA ( libertarian capitalist )China (communist) and (islamic) oil producers ?

Did you buy cheap chinese goods,foreign petrol or imported food out of philosophical choice ( whatever that is ! ) Did you borrow money to purchase property, rather than rent it according to a philosophy ? or because of your own personal self interest ?

Grow up and stop trying to find someone to blame. It was you and you alone who made your choices. You got to make them because you live in a western democracy.

You also have a choice to move to an alternative society, one that may deny you a vote, limit your life choices and your political freedom.That is your choice again.

If you wish to change the status quo in this country, then there will be an election within the next 12 months. You can form your own political party if you don't like what is on offer, or can lobby an existing party.

You can take your money out of a bank. if that bank that offends you.

You can even lobby the government to default on foreign debt.

Alternatively you can demonize a minority, as a scapegoat for your own inadequacies - there's plenty of examples throughout history you can choose from.

Going on a Holy Grail quest for the one true philosophy will either result in high comedy, or low tradgedy - the theatre recognises these two imposters both the same.

thanks for your words of wisdom.

i had no i idea i had the power to regulate financial institutions nor to determine that government policy be based on the idea 'the market' is the sole and best organiser of public policy.

philosophy is the meat and drink of a true guardian class. One should expect them to be skilled in them? or maybe that would be too much of a burden for them? one would not expect it of those who do not wish to be the guardian class?

i understand the pain at finding out that things can be graded as to how much good they have.

not sure what one philosophy you talk of? My point is that the dramatic form of tragedy is about those who have false beliefs and think they are doing right and so initiate disaster and at some point recognise their false beliefs.

Demonise a minority? you mean those who believe as Greenspan did? If they have false beliefs that lead to financial disaster should we praise and honour them? At least Greenspan admits he has a problem. Unlike Gordon who hasn't admitted the model is flawed. Which is why the UK govt is still implementing polices based on the idea the market is the best organiser of public policy. Which is why we have foreign multinationals owning strategic services, pfi, privatisations etc.

the good society belongs to those who can articulate it and defend it from those who who bend it to to serve their own interests.

superiorsnapshot (#10) "Alternatively you can demonize a minority, as a scapegoat for your own inadequacies - there's plenty of examples throughout history you can choose from."

They had a basis in fact too if you lok into it objectively.

When minorities form collectives to serve their own interests at the expense of others whilst preaching anarchistic individualism as freedom for non-group members they settle amidst, they deserve to be demonized, as it's just a strategy of sedition and colonization, i.e. divide and conquer. How else do you account for such disproportionate accumulation of resources in such minority groups? A little study of history reveals that groups complaining about persecution tend to just leave out the behaviours which led to their 'persecution' in order to make it appear sui generis and unjust. Narcissists and other Axis II PDs frequently play victim as their lack empathy renders them conveniently oblivious to the damaging effects of their self-serving behaviour upon others. This scotoma makes them incorrigible, i.e. they are untreatable. They account for much of crime and other social misery.

This, I suggest, is why history is full of dramatic examples where steps were taken to limit the damage they cause.

bookhimdano (#3,#5-7,#11) A 'good' series of posts ;-) Many thanks.

We must endeavour to keep the forces of Satan in check. Alas, they know not what they do and probably never will. This self-other scotoma (the human MHC is on C6P21 as is the gene for CYP21) is my simple hypothesis (a developmentally unresolved phase tied to 'The Terrible Twos') as to why they're incorrigible, and why they persist. Obviously, I strongly suspect the behaviour is largely genetic ;-(

For pleasure i require something more uplifting than paying to watch fictional tales of economic woe.
The factual programme you did on the West Midlands was emontial, not easy viewing watching decent people dedication to hard work go down the pan through no fault of their own.
More fact, less fiction, please Paul...and from crash gordon and co.

the purpose of tragedy is to evoke pity for those who recognise their problem and not demonisation as such.

the false belief here is that self interest of the markets will regulate itself for the benefit of all.

suppose one took that view as the best way to organise the transport network. Who believes the self interest of car drivers will be sufficient law for the road and no further regulation necessary? Or in air traffic control that the self interest is sufficient law for the smooth running of flights that at heathrow take off every minute? No one would think so and rightly say there was not much good in that idea and that a greater good lies elsewhere. So why did they think it in the financial markets? Why does the UK govt still think it?

see how many victims now suffer because of the bad philosophy of a few. The uk will be in debt for 20 years. Services will be cut. All because of this false belief.

As a remedy should not natural justice say there should be a super tax on the profits of the financial sector [who still have no financial constraints problem to pay millions to a few] till the debts are paid off?

Good luck wrestling Satan jj, and good luck with the new Republic bookhim, but if your having jj as your philosopher king, then I'll exercise right to choose an alternative form of entertainment - the theatre maybe. (much more realistic than life don't you think ?)

FALSE BELIEFS?

bookhimdano (#15) "the false belief here is that self interest of the markets will regulate itself for the benefit of all."

The notion of a 'false-belief' is equivocal if one thinks about it. Beliefs are intensional, which render them ideal candidates for ideological/political spin. The notion that 'the markets' can self-regulate and best determine value is a mantra which Greenspan and other anarchists repeatedly make in their defence whilst equivocating as to which 'financial instruments' are and which are not to be trusted.

The bottom line is that any broad-brush analysis of political economics over the last century shows that after Stalin's replacement of Trotsky and the anarchists-turned-Bolsheviks, a largely Jewish economics steered the politics of the West towards anarchism not statism, the exception being Germany in the 1930s and of course, the USSR and its satellites. For indigenous Britons, almost everything of value in the UK has deteriorated as a consequence of this war on statism and management of the US an UK economies over the past decade or so has all but ensured that there can be no funding for growth in the Public Sector as taxes will be paying off massive debt. All things considered, who now believes that any of this was just an error - a chink in Greespan et al's conceptual-framework? I suggest it was engineered explicitly to make the socialist alternative impossible.

Paul,

Forgive me, to cut to the chase, what you seem to be saying here is that Journalism will not help in researching, exposing and promoting the debate needed to change our society, the arts will and it will take years?

A couple of illustrative quotes from your piece to assist with where I am going with this post:

''It struck me then that the human story of this recession would be much harder to tell''.

''What the plays explore is the human response to the crisis: something I think the news media has found hard to do.''

WHY exactly has the news media found it 'hard to do' ?

Are they:

a) Not allowed to do it by editors and their paymasters up the chain of command..is it seen as being too judgemental and politically sensitive?

b) Afraid to do it because it is percieved as being outside the usual 'titillation' factor required to constitute news these days and are worried for their own careers if they pursue something with no immediate hard hitting viewing ratings value?

c) Journalists see it as pointless because noboddy will watch it?

d) Journalists are incapable of putting it in a format people will watch / read / can not find people to offer alternative points of view / are not allowed to because they are not 'popular' or famous enough for the editors satisfaction?


So the journalists tuck their tails between thier legs and leave it for the Arts to sort out !!! Thanks guys !! Very noble of you !!

If the best the arts can come up with is storylines involving winning boxes of bees and monologues on social hardship I dont think they will have much success either frankly..strewth...

The only outcome then is that we have to wait for it to become bad enough in some sector that it becomes major daily titilating news before it will be debated and exposed by journalists

.... gilt auctions fail.....the IMF is brought in...a speculation fueled commodities spike sets us on another downward acceleration ... unemployment at 20% resulting in huge drop in standard of living for all....

somebody kidnaps Gordon Brown injects him with truth syrum and posts the results on U-tube....( is it me or is that actually a good idea for a drama I just came up with ????).

It will all be too late. Myself and all the other posters on here / people who give a damn are in fact (like the journalists) wasting our time bothering with looking at the underlying causes, be it philosophical , system related, human psychology , in our genes or otherwise.

We may as well all sit back and go back to birdwatching (or whatever) in our spare time and wait for it to happen. If it does happen we can then watch watch the incumbents on TV (be it Tory, labour / lib dems or some hung parliament concoction thereof)tell us how they are going to sort it all out if we vote for them.

I may as well just stop posting and go and watch Big brother Live on Channel 4. or write a short tragi comic play about Gordon brown getting kidnapped and injected with truth serum..one or the other, but the BBC would not run the latter because Alaister Campbell (or similar) would not let them as it would be seen as being ''too politically judgemental'' or something.

Big brother it is then.

Bye everyone!

Jericoa

#18 - Jericoa

Maybe it is simpler than that.

Artists, insofar as they choose to be politically engaged at all, do enjoy the freedom to express their own views. Reporters are restricted to taking facts and presenting them as best they can. Commentators and columnists can say pretty much what they like providing there is some element of truth to back it up.

It could just be that there is not very much in the way of good journalism about. Perhaps we should appreciate someone who is sufficiently broadly focused to write seriously about the economics of China, the machinations of politicians who suddenly find PR convenient and the theatre.

Good stuff Paul.

The next phase in this crisis will take a few years to happen, but it will be a shift away from USD, adoption of a modified SDR instead of USD, but only once the current IMF and WTO shift bias away from the US. The overall aims will be a reduction in trade imbalances, a non-sovereign currency as basis for international trade, and to further the incentives away from fossil fuels (ie, smash the military-USD-oil link)

If you want to know the causes of this crisis, read "The Dollar Crisis: Causes,Consequences and Cures" by Richard Duncan (of FT, not of peak oil), which was written around 2001/2002, published 2003.....

CONSTRUCTIVE SUGGESTION:
BOOKHIM says "Demonise a minority? you mean those who believe as Greenspan did? If they have false beliefs that lead to financial disaster ... the UK govt is still implementing polices based on the idea the market is the best organiser of public policy. Which is why we have foreign multinationals owning strategic services, pfi, privatisations etc.

the good society belongs to those who can articulate it and defend it from those who bend it to serve their own interests."

*paul mason and bookhimdano* HOW'S THIS FOR ARTICULATION on practical problem-solving RATHER THAN GOING ROUND IN "PHILO-CIRCLES"? :

*** UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY self-regulating mechanism for finance. Stable trade, energy etc ***


FROM THE EXISTING HIGH-PRESSURE WORLD of finance, it would surely be desirable to have a mechanism for automatic diversion of part of commercially-created money if it could be for anti-inflationary (SEE FOOTNOTE 1) long-term climate protection needs .

The credit creation system offers the perfect opportunity, now that instability issues are being discussed. So a credit creation charge might be a timely way to achieve a stabilising flow of revenue from the top-heavy, most-profitable (FOOTNOTE 2) world of high finance. We would then need a mechanism for efficient distribution, suggested below - fairly funding projects directly.

In Australia and Canada the GST is at 10%. In the UK VAT has been brought down to 15%. But none of these countries have a mechanism that allocates ring-fenced funds against climate change. Meanwhile congestion caused by cars has declined little since the credit crunch. They are still using up the limited fossil fuels that China and India will soon be even more rapidly eating into. And sea levels will more rapidly rise.

FOOTNOTE 1 Long-term investments can be less inflationary Central Planning Economic section official (Netherlands), Dr Nick Zubanov. Email note.

FOOTNOTE 2 In a recent paper by the ACCA accounting group (the one with ethics as a core principle) McKinsey are quoted to have found that "global banking profits in 2006 were $788 billion; this was over $150 billion greater than the next most profitable sector: oil, gas and coal. Global banking revenues were 6% of global GDP and its profits per employee were 26 times higher than the average of other industries." (Corporate Governance and the Credit Crunch ACCA 2008) (Our emphasis these profits are after high expenses).

page 2
So energy transition and climate change adaptation measures could both be massively assisted by the simple means suggested here. Part of it has already got muted praise from Whitehall and by the Bank of England. Earlier STEER (ETI - SEE FOOTNOTE 3) was supported as an option by the Earth Policy Institute in the USA - a lead author in Earth from the Air that brought matters sharply into focus. For example the decline in value of trade received from increased volumes from those with weak currencies (50% drop in value 1990-2000). This started me in my search for solutions to currency value problems. I hope you too will find them good, and send back a comment.

We have embarked on a book that must be out by September 2009, hopefully a short TV series to follow. In it we are describing how currency value has been at the heart of a series of global problems: from global terrorism to inadequate protection of the agricultural and other land turning to desert, to our own starvation of funds that should have automatically gone towards infrastructure costs (otherwise increasing taxation) and that would protect the roads from congestion.

The ordinary man, the business man or woman and the teenager struggling to make sense of the world will read this book! So should government, policymakers and academics! It offers the mechanism by which the Green New Deal (FOOTNOTE 3) can be made a reality instead of another forgotten report. In it we will show that a simple diversion of a lot less than half of currently-created credit money that has been a source of extreme profit to banks can be used to assist the introduction of an ETI (footnote 4) a fundamental alteration to the means of distribution.

By making the money flow automatically and ADJUSTABLY to investments, rather than consumption; direct to projects, rather than through government bureaucracy, we may have the magic bullet partially described above and help everyone including banks, insurers, re-insurers and EMPLOYERS/EES.

**Simply put, the VAT would be brought further down to 10% and the EET or ETI brought in alongside at 10%. The offset needed to protect the vulnerable from the effects of that tax (amounting to 2.5% net increase in UK) would be diverted from banking as mentioned in the first few lines above to help simplify the myriad of taxes: by sending the base rate on any new money to the public purse via the Central Bank.**

Contact: Ian Greenwood +44 (0)121 449 0278
STEERglobal Group www.STEERglobal.orG

FOOTNOTE 3 New Economics Foundation et al (2008) [NEF said any credit creation charge should be hypothecated].
FOOTNOTE 4 Environmental Tax on Imports (ETI) published as part of Stern Review and Treasury Select Committee 2007/14 found some favour by suggesting an automatic return to producer nations direct to sustainability projects for benefit each side of the world.
FOOTNOTE 5 EET previously described as Environmental Tax on Imports (ETI) might be renamed the Environment and Energy Tax (EET) and ring-fenced for renewable energy, sustainable transport and super-insulation etc.

PAUL AND BOOKHIMDANO: WHAT DO YOU THINK? can this rapidly bring global economic, ecological, social and philosophical equilibrium?

See UK CIP Report "Much wetter winters forecast" and with rising seas Gloucestershire-type inundation because of the incapacity of rivers to empty into rising seas. Recent forecasts of thick ice melt completion in a few years indicate that UKCIP is already out of date. Sea also NCE 25.06.09 front cover predictions: 5m people, 2350 schools 2300 doctors FLOODED.

#19

It was not meant as criticism of Paul Mason, he is , as you rightly say, one of the good guys. I do like to poke him with a stick every now and again though to try to keep him that way!

The columnists say what they want and often they have far more of the ring of truth about what they say than the politicians but they do not have any real clout in the real world.

The journalists can only 'present the facts' but the facts only seem to be labour, Tory or lib dem plus a tiny smattering of other stuff. The BBC fell they have to be seen to be representative and the only way to do that is to give coverage based on existing popularity not intellectual value. How are valuable alternative ideas meant to get coverage? They may be far closer to the truth but because they are outside of the main powerbrokers self interests they dont get air time.

The 'facts' the journalist present are actually just points of view presented by the popular incumbent institutionalised and leveraged financial and political institutions. They are not 'facts' at all, more often than not they are evasions and distortions and attempts at manipulation for their given institutions gain.

It is (in my view) actually a distortion of the real underlying truth to line up panellists from those incumbent institutions on the basis of thier popularity. Those institutions use the principle that journalists only report 'the facts' to their advantage to smother debate outside of their interests.

back to big brother 9 now.

How about, with your unique and privileged positioning, you start being actor in the real life story, instead of just 'audience' and 'theatre critic'?

Instead of patronising and 'describing' you are in a position to explain the story out of how people are being screwed in employment, by stategies to undercut them and bring them to their knees.

Or does it all just stop at the level of 'entertainment', whether Soho Theatre or Newsnight?

#21

There have been some interesting proposals that seem to be along similar lines

One proposed system that I liked was the idea that a combination of scientific bodies and online voting would be used to identify and value externalities, and this information would be used to modify VAT. Income tax would be removed. The VAT would be very fine grained, by product type, by company, with the aim of removing over or underconsumption depending on the measured impact on things. Some VAT would therefore be negative and amount to subsidy.

jericoa (#22) "back to big brother 9 now."

Thanks for keeping us informed. Have you also been an ardent follower of Michael Jackson over the years?

Heads-up: Until we take a leaf out of less celebritist/narcissistic cultures, I predict we will continue to be mass victims of the 'conceptual schemes' of the likes of Alan Greenspan and friends. This is a predatory culture which has mastered how to nuture and reinforce its prey from very early on.

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First off Paul - I meant to congratulate you earlier on your Money Programme, partly for exactly this reason. It was the first thing I'd seen in the media telling the sorts of stories that I was hearing plenty of anecdotally - and all the more welcome for featuring the sort of ordinary people that never normally get on TV but that are far more recognisable to me than the "ordinary people" normally found in the media world of Big Brother et al. Should be compulsory viewing for all those in the Westminster village, I hope you give out some DVDs.

If only the media spent as much time talking about the people taking pay cuts and short-time working as they did about selfish idiots like the Tube drivers, then maybe expectations in the public sector would be reset a bit and we would all be better off. In that respect it would seem that the Midlands in particular is far more in tune with the outside world than many in London, but hitherto there's not been much reporting from there - I don't think the London media made enough noise about the leadership given by the JCB workers in particular. Actually JCB probably deserves more coverage than it gets in general, I guess it's just too far from the M25 to "count". On the same line of thinking, I can't help thinking that there's a great documentary waiting to be made about one of the big chemical complexes like Grangemouth or Immingham.

Going back to the topic, I think there's several reasons why "the definitive artistic response to the crisis [will] take years not months". Partly because the crisis so far has been very "intangible" in a way - the Wizard of Oz is the only major bit of art that comes to mind that can be interpreted as coming out of economics, and even that is debatable (for those that don't know, the theory is that it's about the false hope of agriculture, industry and the cowardly financiers going down the "yellow brick road" of the gold standard). Looking more recently - did any great art come out of the repricing of oil in 1973? It's a bit tenuous, but I can only think of Yergin's The Prize, which was published nearly two decades later. In the same way, a collapse in interbank lending is just a hard thing to write about or do anything with.

That leads on to my second point - there's already been a lot of hardship and distress, but it's mostly been happening to people who work for banks and eg property developers - people of whom artists have little knowledge, and even less sympathy for. They will find much easier targets in a few years time, when there's car factories being shut and nurses being sacked. Steinbeck didn't write about Wall St bankers in 1929, he wrote about farmers in 1937 and 1939. So you might expect to find the first "recession artists" to be redundant City workers rather than the traditional artist in a garret somewhere, perhaps expressing themselves in words rather than in other media. It's maybe significant that perhaps the best art to come out of the recession so far has been the cartoonists in the broadsheet newspapers (as were) - I think I could make a case for Gerald Scarfe being the greatest artist in Britain today, who just happens to publish his work in a weekly periodical. Worked for Dickens, so I don't see why not. But boy has Scarfe been bleak recently. Obviously it helps that there's been political crisis at the same time as the recession, but the likes of Alex are a lot more in tune with the City than Damien Hirst for instance.

A related point is that so far this has been a recession of two halves, a lot of pain in the real world and very little in the public sector. So the recession has had little effect on many who commission art, and so they are perhaps somewhat out of step with their audiences. BBC drama is perhaps the most noticeable example and might be contrasted with some of their competitors who have been hit by the slump in ad revenues - like the newspapers. .

While I know some smart people holding budgets in the public sector who are already preparing for serious cuts, there's still a lot who seem to think "it can't happen to me" - and those underneath them are still largely unaware of what's coming. Maybe they think their houses are now worth what they were in 2005 (even if it's more like 2003 in reality, asking prices are a good example of the wider denial) but even that still feels a bit unreal to them. To that extent, the recent "10% cuts" debate has made a difference, changing attitudes among the people who can cushion the blow if they plan ahead.

It's also interesting to think about how the arts themselves have changed since the last recession. It's not a particularly profound thought that (some) blogs are the successors to the 18th century political pamphlets. But you could also view the Spectator website's national debt widget in the same light, a bit of agitprop in Flash form. And an exhibition of football shirts would be a succinct way to show the varying fortunes of the British economy over the last 30 years, it's a great test of corporate hubris as Man Utd and Newcastle's shirt sponsors bear witness. Actually Paul there's probably a programme to be made there, just out of the advertising boards at sports stadiums - it's been fascinating to see a plethora of City institutions melt away from the tiers of Twickenham to be replaced by bailiffs and 70's-style manufacturing companies, we even had a cement company sponsoring the Twenty20 World Cup recently. Maybe it's just me that finds that kind of stuff interesting. :-)

At least by analogy with the 70s and early 80s we've got some great music on its way, even if the great bands won't emerge until about 2014 - recessions give young men a lot of time on their hands. Again one difference is that they now play games consoles rather than guitars, so perhaps the greatest expression of this recession will be people with great artistry in the way they play Halo 4 and Quake V. Meanwhile we still have the music from that time, an early sign is Glastonbury programming "Ghost Town" - sorry, welcoming back the Specials. And Paul I suspect that "Industrial Disease" by Dire Straits will be the backing music for most of your programmes over the next 2-3 years....

PS Talking of ghost towns, can I just vent a small bit of spleen about Mary Portas' Money Programme? What a complete waste of her address book, even if it is lined with alpaca of chinchilla or something. She's got the clout to get the likes of Rose and King talking about their businesses, but would rather show us kids giving away fairycakes!

She's obviously very good at her day job, and I quite enjoy her take on the Ramsey's Kitchen Nightmares theme usually, but this was like matching a tiara with dungarees. Whether it was a production team needing to "sex up" or the fairycake godmother only operating on "transmit", it ignored the first rule of documentaries - have enough confidence in your subjects to just let them speak. Perhaps the best "retail" documentary on the recession so far was the "accidental" one on BBC4 a while back about Berry Bros, a company much closer to the heart of the crisis than the Beeb itself.

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Why should art evolve a 'definitive' response to anything - it will find ways to portray emotions, predicaments, personalities, ideas,relationships,tragedies,comedies even...I hope it doesnt bind itself to a targeted socio economic demographic group or type of expected response . Its important to contrast today's working population profile with those of earlier generations suffering financial hardships. Today's economy appears heavily reliant on services as a sector. I wonder how this economic landscape impacts on, for example, mental health. Is there more of an impact on those who take a greater relative fall from grace if their house is lost,marriage breaks up, business is lost...who are the most vulnerable / the most resilient? Playwrights should look closely, and why not journalists?

#31

In the past we would meet in the pub, have a few beers, get mad and march on the majistrates house, throw afew rocks at city hall, pick up some more folk in other pubs and the next thing you know you have a million man march on london or a peasants revolt or a magna carter.

The service sector means we are not used to getting off our backsides and engaging in the real world to effect change anymore. we can not blog our way out of this.

QUOTE OF THE DAY (#31)

"We can not blog our way out of this." AND you opened by quoting yourself J!

Never blog when you can blag. But would a blag-blog pass the Blogdog? He seems to think I smell like a blogdog lightbite today. (:o)

barrie (#32) Maybe it reflects an aversion to 'extreme painballing'?

Jericoa's right "The service sector means we are not used to getting off our backsides and engaging in the real world to effect change anymore. we can not blog our way out of this."

Our duty is to consume.

Erratum (#33) Extreme Paint-Balling

"THEN I SAW HER POST - NOW I'M A CONSUMER" (#33)

I understand that just by having my computer on, I put my Carbon Foot firmly in my virtual mouth.

Thanks for linking back to 'extreme paintballing' JJ. That was a good day.

(:o)

#32

I was supposed to be refering to #30 but the inadvertant (ad infinitum /pointless) circular reference was probably planted there by my intellectually far superior (and seemingly ever evasive in my case) subconscious self, which brings us neatly back to underlying philosophy again and whether 'free will exists' as always seems to be the case eventually.

Fancy a beer and some cajun squirell flavoured crisps as accompaniments anyone? We must be able to find a nice pub close to Westminster somewhere where the landlord is used to middle aged people over indulging and talking nonsense for hours on end in the illusion that they will make a difference in the world.

Paul,

While we all await the next exciting instalment in the crunch from the field of the arts, here's an article from a non-mainstream economist that explains the economy as having three levels:

- Money (i.e. the potential for us to mistake the expansion of credit for the creation of real wealth)
- Real economy (getting back to the real job which is creating industrial value through technology, innovation, and efficient manufacturing)
- The environment (the "real-real economy" - the flows of energy and materials)

[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]

Is Joan Martinez-Alier camera shy, or is there a chance of an interview with him?

No.37. Hawkeye_Pierce

In my day, that was mainstream economics.

Monetary policy teaches that if you match the speed and volume of the money supply with the underlying productive output of the economy, price inflation would be kept under control. During the past few years, Britain and the USA did not follow a policy of monetarism, as they did not control credit, which is an important part of the money supply. This expansion in the supply of credit/ money caused extreme price inflation, in the price of assets. The government and BoE chose to ignore this.

Joe Public is as much to blame, for choosing to borrow too much cheap money. Just because the bank offers it, doesn't mean you have to borrow it.........

Never mind, eh?

And, just to set your mind at rest, all that outsourcing to foreign countries with cheap labour, won't cause high levels of long term unemployment in Britain. Remember when India spun its own cotton after gaining independence from the British Empire, and put a spinning wheel in the centre of its flag; it didn't cause all the mills in Lancashire to go out of business, did it...........?

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

Ref #37 and #39 - Seems that mods don't like pdfs.

This HTML link should be acceptable:

https://tinyurl.com/jmalier

#38

"The hidden inflation, and the rise in the money supply"

See recent post on RP's blog:

https://bbc.kongjiang.org/www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2009/06/why_banks_must_be_allowed_to_d.html

Given all that has been happening in the wierd world of money these last few years - I'm actually amazed that general price levels (mainly low order consumer goods) have been fairly stable. Have we actually evolved a very clever way of backroom manipulating of the money supply to give the outward impression of serenity?

# 28 Stop It Aggers
Delighted to join your rant about Mary Portus which has more to do with a bloated ego, greed and making of a TV programme than helping small shopkeepers in trouble.
While her previous programs were good viewing, the last two left me fuming.
These type of decaying small town high street shops, have nothing whatsoever in common with the likes of M&S.
Last week, she encouraged high street shops in Tewkesbury to struggle on, instead of issuing a proceed with extreme care warning, its not just the recession, a shopping revolution has happened.
Internet shopping is high street biggest threat, it's growth is unstoppable. All ages now shop online buying everything produced by man at the best possible price.
Yet the show featured a outdated image of the online shopper... young bloke buying music.
Had they selected a family purchasing a musical instrument online, that would have been far more relevant to the music instrument shop featured.
And as for the cup cake street promotion for a small fashion shop, words fail me. The outdoor fair seemed to be poorly attended, yet was mooted a success.
As for the charity shop episode, the shell shocked volunteer charity shop workers must have been in need of counseling after she left.
Charity shops have social responsibility. They should not be refitted and turned into shops where the bottom line becomes top priority.
If they select to go down that no through road, they change from charity to commercial, become competitors to other high street shops, so should pay business rates and overheads.
Mary Portus programs may be entertaining in a cruel Big Brother sort of way, but should also carry a heath warning for it's participants or should that be ... Victims.
I hope a film crew take Ms Portas back to all of these shops in a years or two's time to review the outcome of her advice, that might be unmissable TV.

MrTweedy (#38) "During the past few years, Britain and the USA did not follow a policy of monetarism, as they did not control credit, which is an important part of the money supply. This expansion in the supply of credit/ money caused extreme price inflation, in the price of assets. The government and BoE chose to ignore this."

Excellently put.

That little gem of explication and your last paragraph could however be taken by some as a sign of budding statism aka 'terrorism'.

Mr Brown has now re-spun top-down 'targets' as bottom-up 'entitlements', presumably in case any consumers are now pondering giving up narcissism. Such behaviour would clearly be extremely bad for the economic recovery of some people, and may well have to be re-classified as a crime against the interests of financial service providers.

So much of this rotten country's dogma now appears to become clear!


Jericoa!

Re #116 from previous post:

I will take that as a compliment..thank you.

--------------

I don't think you quite got JJ's message...I think what 'they1 meant is that as an engineer, if you don't understand something...you just don't let it go by!...It's an engineer's responsibility to go back and make sure that they do understand the scientific principle!

Believe me...if I can understand it...then anybody can!...after all, it was only a man that invented rocket science!

Finding it hard to respond to art ?, theatre ?, stuck in the same old discourse ? Yawn zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Averroes%27s_Search

superiorsnapshot (#45) Do you believe others have a duty to entertain and inform you?

#44

Au contrare!

I got JJ's message load and clear! M

My response was more a way of avoiding the classic intellectual trap he had carefully laid for me rather than engaging with it. You see part of my point was that there is a component of wisdom which is outside of rationality or ' raw' intelligence as measured by IQ.

Einstein described how he came up with his theories as 'intuition resting upon sympathetic understanding of experience'. The facinating words there are 'intuition' and 'sympathetic'.

In a purely rational framework, in a frame work measured by IQ those things ( intuition / sympathy) can not exist...yet clearly they do exist and are incredibly important (just ask Einstein and the results of what he did)

By engaging with JJ on his carefully constructed point I would have to enter into a purely rational framework to do so hence denouncing my own point that there is something that is real that exists outside of the framework of rationality and IQ and similar such Aritotolean creations which have helped to shape the increasingly souless world we now live in.


Sorry you asked now?

Jericoa (#47) "You see part of my point was that there is a component of wisdom which is outside of rationality or ' raw' intelligence as measured by IQ."

Does it not bother you that the people who work in this area have no empirical evidence for what you assert, and that all you can appeal to is an invalid argument from authority (i.e. ad hominem)? Einstein was not a psychologist and it is not even clear that he was responsible for even his own 'ideas'.

You are demonstrably appealing to magical thinking i.e to the unknown/occult, in order to discount what is known. That strikes me as irrational, and it should strike you the same way.

That is the point that I made, and that is the point which you missed as has been pointed out (despite your egregious wriggling).

Learn to recognise your errors rather than argue the indefensible. It is all just about learning to use sentences (statements) properly after all.

No.47. Jericoa

Your stance is the opposite of the Enlightenment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Enlightenment


You are seeking refuge in superstition.......

#48 / #49

Oh boy..I knew this would happen (call it intuition lol).

To be fair it runs too deep and would take too long and would be well outside the confines of PM blog so probably better if we take it 'offline' somewhere if you really want to pursue it.

Hocus pocus is no substitute for research I have no issue with that and I research as much as I can within my all too human limitations, that should not stop me from being allowed to express an opinion. I am 97.5% entirely rational in my approach to things but I also accept the exitence of something outside rationality (speak to any quantum physicists if you don't believe me.. they are really struggling at the moment).

Even if I am wrong I would say life is more fun with 2.5% of the non rational within it..so forgive me I am going to stick to it as an act of faith ....if you like....dont worry I dont check whether a bridge will fall down using that 2.5% I may try to tap into it to help it to better fit the landscape using it though and in so doing bring more pleasure to those who use it than may otherwise be the case.

Jericoa (#50) Opinions are called that because they are neither true nor false. What you have done, and what you are being criticised for, is dimissing sound empirical research in favour of the 'occult', which, as ha sbeen said above, is not just irrational, but is sadly becoming ever more common in Liberal_Demcoractic, anarchistic societies. People today now have 'opinions' in areas they clearly know next to nothing about and to admit lack of knowledge is taken as a failing rather than a strength. It never used to be do.

People today are inclined to describe their ignorance on a matter as their having an opinion which they are entitled to. Guess what. They are not. people have just learned/been taught to talk in an sbsurd way. Is it any wonder we have spin everywhere?

This is relevant to this blog, and to what's happening more widely in our culture. You are by no means the worst offender..It really is everywhere.

Why has this pandemic of narcissism happened?

Discuss.

#50 Jericoa

Einstein was Jewish...fact!

btw...I think you ahve written some wonderful posts, not just on this blog but on many of the other BBC blogs (especially RPs). Which I mostly, whole heartedly, agree with.

Your level of english language is far superior to mine...but that probably relects more on my autistic trait handicaps. I am just an ordinary engineer myself.

Do you really think JJ lays traps?...I think he/she is far more sophisticated than that.


BTW JJ...are you Jewish?

If you do not wish to reply to that question...then please explain why not?

Was Einstein an anarchist?

MANY A TRUE THING....

BankSlickerminustheR (#52) "Your level of english language is far superior to mine...but that probably relects more on my autistic trait handicaps. I am just an ordinary engineer myself."

Ah, perhaps you have been got-to by the devilish Simon Baron-Cohen (of the Sasha Baron-Cohen extended family), who would have scientists and engineers believe they may have slightly less extreme male-brains than autistic persons? Could this be because Jewish males are more prone to have feminised brains through their higher prevalence of Non Classic Adrenal Hyperplasia which shunts the synthesis of their sex-steroids and makes them a bit prone to strange stress responses too?

It's a Satanic (unwitting) conspiracy to cripple the economy through feminisation you know.

#51

Research is essential, I would say I have spent 39 years actively researching, but if I researched everything I was asked to I would do nothing else.

I would like to think that my opinions are not 'ill informed' it can always be better of course. I follow up much of what is suggested but by no means all of it, 4000 plus years of recorded human opinion is a lot for anybody to get through!

let us not confuse research with rationality, I was trying to challenge rationality not research.. I missed.. my words and strategies are sometimes clumsy..forgive me.

What I was shooting at was dogmatic rationality, religious rationality. It is an illusion like any other religion in my view. Rationalists are often nothing of the sort, they are highly biased towards a certain way of thinking and behaving.

Ask a rationalist / skeptic if he believes in astrology.

The response is ineviatably something on the lines of ..ridicule... what hocus pocus ..nonsence, superstition... and the like (words that have been in some of the posts here on this same thread directed at me) hardly a rational response would you not say? More like a conditioned response.


You may also be guilty of not engaging with ideas and researching them.. dismissing them as being 'outside rationality'..are they?

lets try again and phrase it differently.

Ask the rationalist / skeptic to review some research on the well documented phenomenon of a statistically very significant increase in the admissions to casualty departments and an increase in police incidents, suicides and the like when there is a full moon.

This is actually a well documented statistical phenomenon not ''hocus pocus''. The moon (la lune) call it what you will, influences human mood and behaviour to be sure and has been known to do so for millenia by rational observations from our ancestors....

Do you all feel comfortable with that research?

By what mechanism this occurs nobody knows..some people talk about tides and fish and fertility cycles and relationships to when we were swimming in the ocean ourselves before we grew legs..., which seems like a rather desperate attempt to shoe horn the phenomenon into a framework a rationalist would be comfortable with to me.

If we accept that the Moon does influence human behaviour by some means unknown or at least unproven is it not possible that the sun also does a similar thing?

By extension could Mars / Jupiter etc? Could our relative position in the universe at a given time influence the way we behave in more subtle ways?

Could we in essence be holistically tied into the universe in a way beyond our current understanding?

Rationaly I would say you have to accept that possibility if you accept the statistical evidence of what the moon does to human behaviour.. that is what I am talking about. Do you still follow rationality when it appears to lead you outside of what you have been conditioned to believe?


Do you guys feel comfortable with accepting that the idea of a rational basis to astrology may be possible?

If not ask yourself why not?

Is that uncomfortable feeling you get a rational response or something else? A conditioned response maybe?

Rationality in its purest form it mathematics, Kurt Godels incompleteness theorem proved mathematically that mathematics can not prove anything. I just do not believe that the ground breaking revelations of Kurt (and his friend Einstein) have been accepted by the religion of rationality and this root cause denial is the root of much of the problems that are now emerging in the world.

The finacial crash and the utter failure of mathematical modelling in the hands of (allegedly) the best rational brains on the planet is but one manifestation of it.


I was trying to challenge dogmatic rationality not sound research, which I hope the above post demonstrates in some measure at least within my personal limitations.


So JJ do you believe in astrology?

Jericoa various.

In the sense that it is possible to be a functioning member of a society and have an open mind, you certainly do so, and you do not post dogmatic "certainties" couched in coercive jargon. Nor do you resort to insulting people merely because they disagree with you.

Re IQ: Whatever it measures, it is not "raw intelligence". There are several IQ scales. The most commonly used are the various Wechsler scales, which map RELATIVE performance in tests onto a Normal (Gaussian) Bell curve with mean 100 and standard deviation 15. But an IQ of 130 does not mean 30% better performance in tests than an IQ of 100. It merely means that you are approximately in the top 2% of the population of those who have done the tests The process begs many questions. Not lest of which is what the raw performance actually is between different IQ scores. I would also be very sceptical, without evidence, as to whether the raw data were symmetrically distributed, as the use of a Normal distribution should imply. Then there is he question of error bounds and confidence intervals. Anyone who bandies statistics around without mention of these factors is guilty of misusing technical jargon in an intellectually dishonest attempt to "win" an argument. Another complication is that MENSA uses a different test completely: the Cattell culture fair test. An IQ of 148 on the Cattell scale should be the equivalent of an IQ of 130 on a Wechsler scale, but there is imperfect correlation between the two. Yet another complication is that the Wechsler scales are recalibrated every 10 years, as raw performances on the tests have improved over the last half century or so.

Re astrology: the effects of lunar cycles are well documented. The French statistician Michel Gauquelin claimed also to have found statistical evidence of a correlation between "aspects" of planets relative to natal charts, and individuals' chosen professions, amongst other things. I was interested enough to buy his book, but alas, I confess I have never had the time to read it! (I might if I live long enough).

My only general comment would be that if there is a planetary effect, it should be subject to the inverse square law, OR that we might as well throw physics out of the window. But that has been done before, by relativity and quantum mechanics. Actually, the mathematics of special relativity is remarkably simple to start with - a good AS student could understand it. But the assumptions seem absolutely outrageous - completely contradicting "common sense" (whatever that is). However ALL the evidence supports it so far as I am aware.

Pleasant dreams!! :-)

Jericoa

We are both professionals. We have to get things right. This puts pressure on us, and we have to find ways of winding down. For me, I like to enjoy a bit of art. You seem to like a bit of philosophy. There is nothing wrong with that.

All I'm saying in my posts is: be proud of your ability to get things right; be proud of being able to plan and predict; be proud of your knowledge and your ability to learn.

The language of art is vague and dreamy. Art is subjective and a matter of opinion. Art is not science, but art is important. To really experience the world, we must "feel" it.

Even EM Forster knew that to enjoy culture one must possess money, but the act of earning money runs against the aims of culture. Academics are still fascinated by the conflict between art and money, and the fact that one cannot exist without the other.

In conclusion, those who don't know how to build a bridge (Gordon Brown) can cover up their lack of knowledge by resorting to the vague language employed in art appreciation. However, although they may talk a good story, inevitably their bridge will fall down (the economy collapses under the weight of debt and rampant asset price inflation)......

So, intensional language is often employed to cover up a lack of knowledge.....

All I'm saying is just be aware of this.

It is to easy to succumb to talking about "pushing the envelope" or "joined up thinking" or "vibrant society" or "freedom" or anything else which stirs the emotions but is in reality rather vague and evades definition.

Jericoa (#54) You don't understand how scientists use frequency, association/contingency analysis, correlation and multivariate statistics. Those who teach this use the sorts of examples you cite to get students to see what a relation is, how good research requires that one gets control over ones variables (note it's lighter when there's a full moon, people can see more) and not be misled by multicollinearity etc.

You don't write like an engineer. Engineers do maths.

sashaclarkson (#55) You're doing what Jericoa does. You clearly don't understand IQ or 'g' and you don't understand how tests are created. They are standardised in order to provide a measure of individual differences. Error terms are just part of the business, there is no need to talk about them. These measures are then related to other measures (se teh ETS video!). SATs are proxy IQ tests. They correlate ~0.7 with the NFER CAT. They are practically very useful and predictive - hence are used by teachers. Like Jerioca you won't be instructed on this matter even though what's being said is based on a century of research and 560,000 x 4 observations every year. Nor do you seem able/willing to recognise when you should listen and learn. As I have said elsewhere, this appears to be a modern phenomenon and one which I think is part of our troubled times where ever more people seemingly can not discern the dfference between how much they know about something and what is known about something.

MrTweedy (#56) Good, clear and helpful post. I hope he (and others) appreciates it.

OUR FEMINIZED TIMES

BankSlickerminustheR (#52)

Whilst we are waiting on the extreme male brain.

Question: when did it become de rigueur to censor on behalf of those for whom affirmative action secures hegemony? It egregiously works by promoting concerns over causing 'offence'... Who censors the Little Britain or Ali-G crowd?

No.58. JadedJean

Interesting point. Liberals paint themselves as "tolerant", but how do they discourage those views they do not agree with? They cannot show themselves as being intolerant.......

#jjYou clearly don't understand IQ or 'g' and you don't understand how tests are created. ........ Nor do you seem able/willing to recognise when you should listen and learn.

This is really the last time I shall waste any effort upon you, but FYI I have 30-odd years experience in education. Also, I am well qualified in statistics, and still teach it, amongst other things. In fact, I actually used one of your posts with a student recently, as an example of how it should not be done!

Why should I "be instructed" by someone who regularly misunderstands, misuses and misrepresents statistcal data? This is part of your wider strategy of abusing scientific jargon to bully and coerce, rather than to communicate.

One of the most influential books in my life, which I read for the first time nearly 40 years ago, was "Straight and Crooked Thinking" by Robert Thoulless, the Cambridge experimental psychologist. Many of your posts on these blogs could be textbook examples of dishonest argument.

Yet another example of verbally coercive behaviour is your tendency to accuse those who disagree with you of narcissism. Frankly, you should look in the mirror!!!

Mr Tweedy #59

I see liberals as massively intolerant. They achieve their discouragement of anything they don't like by 'political correctness'. If you would like an example of a grossly intolerant liberal see the writings of thegangofone.

No.61. NewFazer

I am a moderate by heart, but I do find liberals to be rather bullying.

Even E M Forster's "Howards End" leaves you in no doubt that the Wilcoxes are not very nice and must be sneered at, but the Schlegels are truly cultured and must be applauded.

I too would be as worthy as the Schlegels if I didn't have to work for a living.........

sashaclarkson (#60) "Why should I "be instructed" by someone who regularly misunderstands, misuses and misrepresents statistcal data?"

Answer: I have greater expertise and experience and know how to spot error. Consider this a public service.

You have to remember that one often doesn't know who one is taking on in blogs like this unless one provides links which reveal one's identity. You have revealed yours.

You teach/taught pupils. It takes more than Key Stage teaching. What you say is naive. Most who teach in secondary schools and 6th form colleges do not understand the tools which they are using or why they are using them. I say this from experience. It's why there are professional restrictions, much deregulated in recent years, with the same consequences as elsewhere - anarchism. On these matters, you don't know what you are writing about. Nor are you qualified to instruct on these matters.

You should bear this in mind when misleading others. Your posts serve as instantiations of the damage which our education system has been experiencing.

sashaclarkson (#60) "Yet another example of verbally coercive behaviour is your tendency to accuse those who disagree with you of narcissism."

It isn't coercisive, it's better seen as explicative or illustrative for others. I don't think narcissism is treatable, just manageable by diversion. It's ever more prevalent in liberal-democracies, which both breed and depend on it I have been suggesting.

Look into narcissistic rage. What I have picked you up on is perfoectly accurate and justified, but look at the response.

Sadly, many of the so-called helping professions serve as magnets as well as reinforcing cultures. Large numbers of people working in them unwittingly work to and peddle an environmentalist illusion (which they have been taught) and are in the business for narcissistic supply. This requirs some thought.

When more people appreciate the nature of diversity and what can, and can not be done, we will have better educators and behaviour managers. This applies to the economy too. What we don't need is any more theatrics or creative writers, and certainly less narcissists and other Axis II Cluster B PDs.

I take offence at the criticism of narcissists.......

64

Lets call your conceptual system language J

In language J.

1)narcissistic behaviour is caused by a narcissizer

2) a narcissizer has a genetic characteristic labelled Axis 11 Cluster B PD.

3) Jaded Jean has been observed exhibiting narcissistic behavior.


Well?

If 3 then 1&2 .

so either jj has a genetic characteristic labelled Axis 11 Cluster B PD.

Or language J is suspect ?

Which ?

MrTweedy (#65) Perhaps you need to self-moderate that empathy a bit? ;-)

More seriously, much harm is done by well-meaning inexperienced people when they think they see suffering - e.g. prisoners coping to their sentences or 'anguishing/raging' Axis II cluster B types (which comprise about half that population). This is the curse of negative reinforcement (a much misunderstood principle).

superiorsnapshot (#66) Your post makes no sense (as usual). Go and look up the international data from PISA for language, maths and science (2000, 2003, 2006). Then look at what Murray has to say about NCLB in the USA and what ETS says about tests results over there. Then look into the rate of family breakdown here and in the USA, the crime rates on both sides of the Atlantic, school exlusion rates, falling standards and the skewed and below replacement level birth rate....and... the state of economy.

Then read your post again and try to explain to yourelf why you persist in arguing - more accurately, hopelessly trying to shoot the messenger rather than looking at the evidence and learning from what you are being told. For more see my comments on sashaclarkson and several others' behaviour, and note..I am illustrating something which is worth paying attention to.

I don't like their raging; so I find it easier to give them what they want. Trouble is, this seems to encourage yet more raging. Best to retire them off early with a big fat pension.........at our expense.

MrTweedy (#69) Most of us do what you say above, but that may be the problem may it not?

I fear this may well be a possible explanation for what the Germans were so concerned about - i.e. a higher prevalence of a devastating human (general) failing found in an endogamous sub-group :-(

#54

I would take your response with more gravitas had you done some research rather than resorting to statistical jibber jabber rounded off with a personal insult. Where is the substantive refutation and research you give others such a hard time about?

This will really not do at all JJ!

Is the best you can come up with 'its lighter during a full moon' ? Perhaps where you live but for most people now it is light the whole year around (ever heard of street lighting)?.

A study published by German scientists in 2000 checked the blood alcohol levels of 16,495 offenders, most of those with an excess of 2ml of alcohol per 100ml of blood (offcially drunk in Germany) had been caught during the 5 day full moon cycle, the correlation was way beyond the vagueries of statistical analytical approaches. More people get drunk during a full moon.

Another study of 1,200 inmates in Armley jail leeds discovered a consitent marked rise in violent incidents either side of the full moon, outside of this period there were far fewer and none at all on some days.

Some police forces increase man power close to the full moon....for fun presumably?

The relationship is so obvious it is embodied within language itself (lunatic).

I note with interest that you do not take issue with Kurt Godels widely accepted in the mathematical fraternity 'Incompleteness theorem' Too tricky for you to brush off...or perhaps you just can't be botherd to do the research to have an opinion on it?

Your hypocracy is quite breathtaking! I least I am honest about by lack of research and i dont give people a hard time about it one minute than commit the very same crime the next!

I really do not see how we are supposed to take you seriously after this?

Your response is full of the fervour of a religious rationalist who can not cope with the idea that there is something real beyond reason even when reason and mathematics points us towards it. Arguably the most talented mathematician of our age (Godel) used pure reason to show that pure reason is limited in its analytical powers. In a stroke he both proved the immense value of reason and suggested it has limitations and is incomplete.

there are many people in the modern world who simply can not cope with the concept of that which is 'beyond reason', it is denial of the discoveries of Einstein and Godel and others , denial of facts that have been proven by reason itself.


I think you are one of those religious rationalists, hence you resort to the time honoured tradition of all closed minds to seek refuge in rhetoric (statistical vaguery in your case) and insults which would not look out of place in a witch trial in the 15th century and has no more basis in rationality than one.

We need to move on from this.

Good luck to you JJ, I hope you can emerge from Platos Cave but I can no longer take you seriously and I do not propose to.

The above (#71) should refer to #57 of course...

Thanks Sasha, Mr tweedy and bankslickerminther by the way.

I am going to take a break for a while and work on trying to take this out of blogland and into the real world somehow.

Jericoa (#71) You must learn to welcome constructive criticism. It's what science and engineering is all about. The remark about it being lighter during a full moon was in part just a throw-away joke. You should not take such studies too seriously at the expense of more serious work. Yet you do. This is irrational behaviour. Fact.

The first thing you need to learn is that the Null Hypothesis is technically always false. The second thing you need to understand is that a good number of the sorts of studies which you refer to will have pitiful significance (and suspect methodologies, always look closely at the methods section not just the results/discussion/abstract). The third is that you don't appear to understand Godel's work or Church's, Post's, Turing's and the nature of effectivity/'rationality'. See what's been covered elsewhere on the dogma of analyticity (Two Dogmas of Empiricism).

If you really want to see links to empirical evidence behind what I have been posting, try clicking on my username with a skip=10 instead of the default of 25 in the URL after page 1.

You are currently behaving as a self-contradicting 'occultist' and have learned nothing from what MrTweedy or I have helpfully said. There is still time to learn ;-)

Let me expand.

In jj's logic

There is no mind.

The world is consists of matter, and this is organised into something labelled a human body according to something labelled genes.The particular genes cause the particular arrangement.

One of the structures of the body is something labelled brain.

The body is pelted with input from the world, which causes brain states -these inturn cause outputs in form of behaviour. Hence genes cause behaviours.

One of these behaviours is the emission of words and sentences.


The behaviour of one particular body can cause input for another body. This input can be labelled evidence.


JJ asserts that a gene causes behaviour labelled narcissistic.

sashaclarckson( and others) observes jj's behaviour and labells this behaviour narcissistic.

Using sashaclarckson ( and others) evidence we are warranted in asserting jj's behaviour as narcissistic, and that jj's behaviour (if jj is human and not a machine ) is caused by a gene.


Conclusion : jj is labelled a narcissist.

Alternatively jj recants jj's logic.

No.70 JadedJean

I don't want to "believe" in the Jewish angle. I am not qualified to "assess" Jews or their "behaviour", therefore I must give them the benefit of my doubt, rather than "giving them out, leg before wicket"......

superiorsnapshot (#74) First of all, I have repeatedly explained that the perspective I'm writing from is operant not respondent (operants are emitted and driven by genes and reinforcement histories they are not elicited). Secondly, I have not said that NPD is exclusively genetic (although it may well have an important component based on what we now know). Third, I using formal diagnostic criteria, albeit restricted to online verbal behaviour, the latter being available to anyone reading these blogs/websites.

From all this, my descriptions appear to be accurate, whilst yours and sashaclarkson's appear to be demonstrably inaccurate. You just don't like the description/classification because it doesn't make you look good.

Describing behaviour as it is, is not a form of abuse.

Learn to identify behaviour for what it is. Start by learning to read what others write more carefully, and reporting it more accurately.

MrTweedy (#75) The problem is taring the whole group irrationally. If there is truth to what I and others say, and it is largely genetic, we are only talking about a higher prevalence than in other groups. It will still be a minority. Once one accepts that perpective, I don't think there is a problem, as its resolution is in the interests of everyone. It's interesting that the main theorists on the Axis II, Cluster B PDs have been Jewish, and it focused on NYC and originally Vienna. In fact, this entire matter has been a major Jewish interest. One has to ask why, just as one must ask how any group could even conceive of itself as 'The Chosen Ones' and not expect this to cause resentment/conflict with others they settle amidst.

No.77. JadedJean

I liked Clement Freud and his wit. I'm glad his grandfather came to live here in Britain (all be it in Hampstead, which is now populated by chattering bleeding heart soft touch liberals....). Then again, liking someone for their sense of humour could mark me out as feminised, as don't women always long for a GSH?

But more seriously, if we build a few basic safety limits into the economy it will automatically protect our virtue from any would be predators, irrespective of their background or religion. We should be able to live and let live, but we must accept that all human society is a pyramid, with the many supporting the few. Those with a bit of guile will climb higher, but as long as they play by the rules the rest of us will still enjoy a good quality of life.

Entrepreneurs are born and not made, as they are "driven", which is a polite way of saying obsessive, obstinate and self-possessed. We do need these people, as they take risks which, when they pay off, drive the economy forward through productivity gains. The safety limits I speak of are just ways of managing the risk, as some entrepreneurs are reckless and must be protected from themselves, just as much as we need to be protected from them.

Erratum (#77) Actually, that's not true. I was just thinking of NPD (Kohut and Kernberg and the psychoanalytic tradition in general). Cleckley, Hare and Lykken were/are not Jewish and they focused on ASPD/Psychopathy from a behavioural perspective. There's much overlap in the 4 PDs though, interesting sex ratios too BPD and HPD 3:1 female to male, NPD/ASPD 3:1 male to female. All just extremes of normal human personality types.

I guess those who have minds can make their own up.

https://www.bullyonline.org/workbully/npd.htm

superiorsnapshot (#80) In one sense that's just tautologously so, but one has to take on board that lack of empathy is also accompanied with lack of insight along with rage at being criticised. Normal people often welcome criticism recognizing it to be protective/nurturing. My point throughout (and it has been made by many) that we live in an age of narcissism which is costing us dearly. NPD shares half its statistical Factor Structure with it's even more destructive sibling, Anti-Social Personality Disorder (which includes psychopathy) and has a higher than average prevalence in 'Financial Services' and the entertainment/media industry (as well as the prison population).

They are incorrigible...Are you? ;-)

MrTweedy (#78) "if we build a few basic safety limits into the economy it will automatically protect our virtue from any would be predators, irrespective of their background or religion."

From what I've seen of life, these risk takers account for more harm than good. Socialist societies (e.g. 1930s Germany and USSR) classed them as 'enemies of the people' for good reason. They account for about half of those in our prisons too. They wreck families and other people's lives. I have often heard the argument that we need them. I think less permanent revolution is a small price to pay for humanely containing them i.e benevolently, putting them out of other people's way. But then maybe I've seen more of the harm which they do so am biased... They truly are hateful people, even to professionals.

JadedJean

No.82.
"From what I've seen of life, these risk takers account for more harm than good."......
"I have often heard the argument that we need them. I think less permanent revolution is a small price to pay for humanely containing them i.e benevolently, putting them out of other people's way.".....
"They truly are hateful people, even to professionals".

No.77.
"The problem is taring the whole group irrationally. If there is truth to what I and others say, and it is largely genetic, we are only talking about a higher prevalence than in other groups. It will still be a minority."


Yes, the minority which oversteps the mark must be contained, and their actions prevented, by the safety limits I refer to (lending controls, separation of investment banking from commericla banks, taxation of externalities and of private sector excess, state provision of necessities, etc, etc).

The remainder, which do not take excessive risk, are "not truly hateful".

Therefore, the majority of entrepreneurs, although irritating in many of their personality traits (even to professionals), actually do more good than harm.

I am not a socialist, whereas you are. I agree some nationalisation is in the country's best interest, and that privatisation has gone much too far. However, I do not agree with the command economy, as it is too far removed from the customer, and relies too much on the "cost plus" pricing model.

In conclusion, I agree with you up to a point, but you go further than me in your proposals.

MrTweedy (#83) "In conclusion, I agree with you up to a point, but you go further than me in your proposals."

That all seems fair enough.

I tend to see socialist command economies as a necessary evils for lowish mean ability groups in order to protect the population from other more powerful (sometimes endogamous) groups. 'Class warfare' is perhaps not the best term, 'group competition' is perhaps better. The individualism which has been promoted in the West (and to its 'colonies' in the East) perhaps had its merits until our populations started to show the negative characteristics of dysgenic fertility, which I now see as having become a major problem exacerbated by destructive policies like female emancipation and contrary to the fact statistics from biology 'equality' along with 'education, education, education' which only appeals to the 'young' and inexperienced anyway. Based on an analysis of international data I fear we're headed for a dictatorship of one sort of another, and I just see the PRC as a better alternative than some others. For this reason I think China's presence in Africa and S Asia will do more good than the USA/EU will.

I like to think that I'm realistically/pragmatically driven, not ideologically, but I'm aware it's easy to delude oneself.

No.84. JadedJean

Before World War II many British intellectuals believed in a benign dictatorship as the best way to ensure "fairness" for the wider population.

My own idealogical prejudice is an admiration for the Georgian and Victorian industrialists, as well as the Aristocracy and Empire.

I can't help but admire Henry Wilcox in Howards End, even though I know I should side with the cultured Schlegels. E M Forster knew of the attraction of the Wilcoxes and attempted to counter it by making Henry Wilcox guilty of an affair earlier in his life, as well as making the son, Charles Wilcox, a completely irritating duffer.

Its the attraction of the puritan values of industry and progress, coupled with the adventure of exploring foreign lands and cultures.

When reading Howards End, I must make allowance for Forster's prejudices as well as making allowance for my own, and then attempt to learn a moral from the story, in an attempt to become a "better" person.

However, when faced with overwhelming consumerism and a media which panders to high volume low cost pop culture, I sometimes wonder if there is any benefit to culture, learning and respectability.

The likes of Bernie Ecclestone and Alan Sugar are no match for Henry Wilcox.........

"Hertzl opposed the efforts already made by Zionist groups to settle Jews in Ottoman-controlled Palestine, arguing that "important experiments in colonization have been made, though on the mistaken principle of a gradual infiltration of Jews. An infiltration is bound to end badly. It continues till the inevitable moment when the native population feels itself threatened, and forces the government to stop a further influx of Jews. Immigration is consequently futile unless we have the sovereign right to continue such immigration. (Quoted from The Jewish State, translated by Sylvie dAvigdor, Nutt, London, 1896, and reprinted by Dover, 1988, p. 95.)

For this reason, Herzl, both in Der Judenstaat, and in his political activity on behalf of Zionism, concentrated his efforts on securing official legal sanction from the Ottoman authorities."

Der_Judenstaat

My emphasis.

That people continue to try to ridicule historical fact as 'conspiracy theory' when it's all explicitly documented (either in Hansard or the mass migration into London and NYC at the turn of the C20th followed by the Alien Act, Sedition Act, and destabilization of Russia in 1917) reveals a very poor grasp of history, or else an egregious disregard for it. That Newsnight has journalists on the programme who abuse guests those rightly presnet the historical facts on behalf of those who are now trying to cope wth the fallout in the Middle East, really is shameful in my view, just as it is not to acknowledge the gross statistical over-representation in poweful positions in both the UK and USA as in the end, history as a habit of repeating itself :-(

errata (#86) ..who abuse guests who rightly present the historical facts..

Incorrigible ?


The great French mathematician Laplace said:
If we were to know with precision the positions and speeds of all the particles in the universe then we could predict the future with certainty

Chaos is a state of apparent disorder and irregularity whose evolution in time, though governed by simple and exact laws, is highly sensitive to starting conditions. Small variations in these conditions produce widely different results, in such a way that the long term behaviour of chaotic systems cannot be predicted.

It is impossible to accurately predict the motion or progression through time of even a simple chaotic system - herein lies the beauty of the double pendulum. Compared to real world systems such as the weather; molecular vibrations; fluid dynamics; or solar systems and galaxies, it is an extremely simple system which can be easily modelled and understood mathematically. However, unlike a simple single pendulum, it is impossible to predict the long term behaviour of the double pendulum.

Although Chaos Theory is a well defined branch of mathematics, agreement on a definition of the phrase itself has not been finalised. However, it is generally accepted that all chaotic systems share the following features:

Deterministic. In a mathematical sense a deterministic system is fundamentally straightforward (you can model it with a formula) and there are no random elements involved.


Sensitive to initial conditions. Infinitesimally small changes to the initial conditions in an otherwise perfect experiment will produce widely different results. This sensitivity to initial conditions is popularly known as the butterfly effect.


Unpredictable and unrepeatable. No two experiments produce the same results and it is impossible to predict the outcome of an experiment.
Put another way, the behaviour of a chaotic system depends so sensitively on the system's precise initial conditions that it is, in effect, unpredictable and cannot be distinguished from a random process, even though it is deterministic in a mathematical sense.



Here is a demonstration of the simplest system :
https://www.myphysicslab.com/dbl_pendulum.html

How much trust would you place in a genetico psychological system ?