Daily View: Election speculation

An Observer opinion poll shows a fall in the Conservatives' lead. Commentators are speculating about what this will mean for the next election.

Much talk is about whether a hung Parliament would be a good thing. In the Guardian Jackie Ashley thinks such a result would be difficult for all, but a terrible blow for David Cameron who she says has been assuming the Tories are returning to power. Meanwhile, Martin Bright in the Spectator is holding out for a hung parliament:

"I think the British people deserves a hung parliament, which would be the best result of the next election. I have been saying for some time that the Conservatives do not have the strength in depth to form a credible government and that the electorate faces the most unappealing choice since 1970."

Sean O'Grady in the Independent says Nick Clegg has a Liberal dilemma:

"It is ironic indeed that Nick Clegg, the leader of a party that dedicates itself to the destruction of the first-past-the-post system, appears to have mortgaged his political future to it. It also makes the party seem uninterested in principle or policy.
Nick Clegg's strategy."

Labour MP Kerry Mccarthy in her blog Shot By Both Sides insists that Liberal Democrat voters need to know whether their leaders would align themselves with Labour or the Conservatives in a hung parliament. She tries to work out Nick Clegg's strategy:

"The other possible interpretations of this are that (a) Nick Clegg thinks the Tories are going to win and is getting cosy with them now in the hope of a decent job in a Tory Cabinet or (b) Nick Clegg is really a Tory at heart, who's just a bit keener on Europe than the rest of them."

In the gambling world, Mike Smithson at the blog Political Betting says the main effect of talk of a hung parliament is that few punters are ready to change their positions or start risking money on Labour.

The Daily Mail and the First Post disagree who this poll is worst for. Melanie Phillips in the Mail says the poll shows voters still don't trust Mr Cameron's Tories because "many see him as guilty of the same kind of cynical opportunism and contempt for the public that has turned so many against not just Labour but politicians in general."

And The Mole in the First Post says that those who see this poll as good news for Labour are wrong as Gordon Brown is still performing badly in the personality ratings:

"Instead of being a vote of confidence in his leadership, it suggests that if only Brown would step down and allow someone else - either of the Miliband brothers or even Ed Balls - to fight for the crown, Labour would have a real chance of beating Cameron."

The BBC's Political Editor Nick Robinson Analysed on Radio 4's Today Programme what Nick Clegg's motivations may be:

"I think he's trying to put a marker down now, a marker with the public saying look we're not trying to do some deal in smoke filled rooms when you're not looking."

• Melanie Phillips | Daily Mail | Why voters still don't trust the Tories
• Martin Bright | Spectator | I Hope I'm Wrong
• Jackie Ashley | Guardian | Election winner will be a Harold Wilson, not a Tony Blair
• Mike Smithson | Political Betting | Spread punters unimpressed by hung parliament talk
• Sean O'Grady | Independent | A neat sidestep of an age-old dilemma
• First Post | Labour aides celebrate poll showing hung parliament
• Kerry McCarthy | Shot By Both Sides | Time to come down off the fence
• Alex Massie | Spectator | People are Stupid, but the Electorate is Not
• Rod Liddle | Spectator | Why's it unravelling for Dave?
• Paul Flynn| Selfish reforms