Lib Dem surge threatens Tory hopes in North
The astonishing state of the current polls has certainly breathed life into this election campaign, but what could a Liberal Democrat surge mean in our region?
If it's sustained, it would unquestionably lead to Nick Clegg's party winning seats here.
Assuming the current rise in support was reflected in all our constituencies, Labour would certainly lose the City of Durham to them.
And they could also face a battle to hold onto seats in Newcastle and possibly even in Blaydon, a seat which was probably not in play before.
But it's possible that the surge might only translate into one or two gains from Labour.
In fact, as in other parts of the country, it's the Conservatives that would suffer the most.
The corresponding fall in the Tory poll rating could rob them of the chance to beat Labour in their crucial target seats of Tynemouth, Stockton South, Carlisle and Copeland - all of which they need to win to get a Commons majority.
To add to their woes, their hopes in Lib Dem-held Westmorland and Lonsdale, Outer York, Harrogate and Berwick would also fade away.
In fact if most current polls were reflected in each of our constituencies they might not win a single extra seat in the North East and Cumbria.
Clearly with more than a fortnight of campaigning to go, and two TV debates left all this could change again.
And it's possible the polling is still just reflecting people's perceptions of who won the first debate, rather than any permanent shift in opinion.
But if the polls don't shift, the Conservatives are bound to be concerned that years of work in the region could have been undone in just 90 minutes of TV.
I'm Richard Moss, the BBC's Political Editor for the North East and Cumbria. Welcome to my irreverent - but hopefully insightful - northern take on reporting politics for Look North and the Politics Show.
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