A massive swing

The light at the end of the tunnel is well and truly in sight!

There there. That didn't hurt much, did it Nick?

Sour grapes from those "explaining" the Labour's ducking on tv.

No amount of intellectualising and pontificating will get Labour to win the General, especially after this result in Norwich.

The man and woman in the street have spoken - and will continue to speak. Listen, Gordon. Take direction Gordon from the people.

LISTEN, learn the lesson, and move off the world's and our stage.

Well done Nick. At long last, Reason triumps over Sentiment.

Unsurprising swing.
Roundabouts when better days?
My guess: not next term.

"Labour, on the other hand, will point out that the swing originated largely from a collapse in their vote (-27%) and much less by an increase in the Tory vote (just 6.5%)."

===

Yes, well done Labour. Trying to spin it by saying "we lost because we were rubbish, not because the Tories were good".

In denial right to the bitter end.

Nick, I really want to believe that that wasn't said through gritted teeth.

Brown is hated by the people.

Brown's ego has for years been destroying the Labour party from within. When are Labour going to get rid of him?

No-one can spin this as anything other than a very good result for the Tories and a terrible one for Labour and the Lib Dems. Not much better for the Greens either.

I'm not a betting man but if I was I'd be piling money on the General Election being delayed till (almost) the last possible moment. It's now the only way Gordon Brown can maximise his tenure in 10 Downing Street.

Labour must now plan for 5 years in opposition...

Will BBC jobs be in the gift of The Conservatives as they have been under Labour? I do hope so. What a stunning result in Norwich. Is democracy about to return to our shores?

"Labour, on the other hand, will point out that the swing originated largely from a collapse in their vote (-27%) and much less by an increase in the Tory vote (just 6.5%)."

It's a by-election. It attracted all sorts of oddballs and weirdos on a low turnout, so all the major parties were likely to lose a few votes here or there. You can't really spin a loss on this scale as anything but bad news for Labour, though. The Tories got nearly half of all votes and more than twice Labour's vote in a seat which, while historically fairly marginal, had been solidly Labour since 1997.

I had been expecting a solid if unspectacular Tory win, followed by a real struggle to hold it at the GE, but this result pretty much makes it safe Blue territory, with the rest fighting for second.

I wonder if the jellyspines pretending to the throne of Labour regret not taking up the knife before. There was a chance of Labour maintaining its dignity in defeat at the next election (or even a possible victory in the bottled election)...but that disappeared over the horizon a long time ago. The only question now is "Who gets the Portillo treatment?"

Nick, people will now be saying "How outrageously biased to the Tories you are." This is of course as stupid as the other taunts. Good blogs always create comment and response. Yours do, so keep up the great work.

Roll on the day when we can vote for a fresh 5 year mandate. I fear it will take a long time and it will all become rather nasty.

" Yes, well done Labour. Trying to spin it by saying "we lost because we were rubbish, not because the Tories were good".

In denial right to the bitter end."

Yellow - remember that lesson we had a while back about the difference between fact and opinion? Well your quotation refers to Nick's opinion on what Labour may or may not say. It's not a fact. They haven't said it yet. Please calm yourself. It may never happen.

You have to laugh, good old Gordon (Its not my fault) blames everything else as to why Labour lost, Gordon you see the reason every time you look in the mirror. He should do himself and above anything else the Labour party a favour and go, opposition is calling.........

No, "I told you so " then Nick"? On the BBC , just after the declaration, a lady reporter was giving her views at the same time as I understand that the Labour Agent was reading a speech, apparantly from the sick Labour candidate. Net result, I could not properly hear either.

Nick, I think that you should go and have a lie down in a darkened room, you may just recover in time for the next Bye or General Election.

A poor excuse, 'The Tories did not gain much, it was Labour losses' surely you can do better than that?

Nick,

Typing that must have felt like the keyboard was on fire and burning your finger nails. However, at least you've been gracious in defeat.

I presume its back to Labour HQ to work out the next nit-pick attack on the Tories?

Oh dear Nick! You presented your version of the facts and I suppose that's as close as we are going to get!

However, might it just be possible that the people of Norwich who voted actually like Cameron?

I'm still not sure about the Tories, but I suppose if Brown was doing a good job, the result may have been a lot closer....

Nick, how is the humble pie tasting?

"" Yes, well done Labour. Trying to spin it by saying "we lost because we were rubbish, not because the Tories were good".

In denial right to the bitter end."

Yellow - remember that lesson we had a while back about the difference between fact and opinion? Well your quotation refers to Nick's opinion on what Labour may or may not say. It's not a fact. They haven't said it yet. Please calm yourself. It may never happen."


Sorry LATT #14. I am afraid Sagamix the Red Defender said just that. He may be right but it is a damn poor excuse for being trounced royally.

6. At 2:30pm on 24 Jul 2009, yellowbelly1959 wrote:

Yes, well done Labour. Trying to spin it by saying "we lost because we were rubbish, not because the Tories were good".

In denial right to the bitter end.

- The Tories were good?

Its just a case of getting fed up with one load and giving the other lot of rubbish a go. And in a few years we will no doubt decide its time to bring the old rubbish back in again...

I'm this has more to do with people wanting Labour out than people wanting Cameron's blue labour in.

IMO what we really need is some radical change and the best option for that is some recognition and representation for England via an English Parliament.

It's about time English taxes were spent in England.

Nick,

So its Mr Cameron now, what happened to Dave ?

No need to apologise Nick

Maybe the electorate is just fed up of spin, and we'd like people like you to actually pull up the politiciatians and make sure they are held accountable

Another spectacular self inflicted and un-necessary New Labour Gordon Brown inspired own goal.

Perhaps Gordon Brown should have followed his own advice :

"This is no time for a Norwich"

Every election - bye-election, council election, euro election - delivers the same result, which is a collapse in the Labour vote.

The fact is that the party is discredited, and its leader is despised.

If only we didn't have to wait till next summer, but that's Brown and Labour for you - 'sod the public, let's cling on for as long as we can'.

Contemptible.

Despite the somewhat trite comments I detect that the inhabitants of the Westminster media village are accepting that there is more to this result than a reaction to the MPs expenses saga.

"Oh, where are the miracles when one most needs them?", I can hear Gordon thinking as he wanders, lonely as a cloud, around the Lake District hoping to espy a host of daffodils.

Well Nick, looks like the soapbox and rolled up sleeves worked for "Dave" then!

What must "Jimmy" be thinking as he prepares to go on his holidays, and leaves both his Deputy Prime Ministers squabbling over who is really in charge?

Labour would be right to point to the collapse in their vote, now instead of spinning as to the collapses cause they need to wake up and realize the problem is Gordon Brown.

The Tories aren't even trying very hard, they know they don't have to as Brown represents their most potent weapon; while he's Labour leader, he's guaranteed to give the Tories the swing they need.

The Tories expected a majority of 1000-2000, and the Brown-effect managed to more triple that. Labour have had more than one opportunity to get rid, and unless they plan to be obliterated in the General Election they need to get rid of Brown ASAP.

14. At 2:41pm on 24 Jul 2009, Laughatthetories wrote:
" Yes, well done Labour. Trying to spin it by saying "we lost because we were rubbish, not because the Tories were good".

In denial right to the bitter end."

Yellow - remember that lesson we had a while back about the difference between fact and opinion? Well your quotation refers to Nick's opinion on what Labour may or may not say. It's not a fact. They haven't said it yet. Please calm yourself. It may never happen.

===

It already has, laugh! "Jimmy" has just said " I don't think any party can take a great deal of cheer from this, the Conservative vote went down..."

As I said, in denial to the bitter end!

"Gordon Brown said it was "clearly a disappointing result" for Labour but people should consider what was happening in the constituency.
"The voters were clearly torn between their anger and dismay at what's been happening with MPs' expenses, something we have been trying to clean up and at the same time support for the former MP, the Labour MP Ian Gibson, who was very popular.
"I don't think any party can take a great deal of cheer from this, the Conservative vote went down, the Liberal vote when down - only the fringe parties saw their votes going up."

https://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8166398.stm

"The truth is that Mr Cameron has done more than enough to look on course for an election victory and Labour has done badly enough to fear that one is inevitable. "

Well, one shall prepare for the dark ages just as the previous generation prepared for such times leading up to May 3rd 1979.

:-(

You see?

That wasn't so hard was it Nick.

You CAN be objective when you have to be. :o)

I find it astonishing just how low the turnout was. With all that's been happening in politics lately, why on earth do so many people not seem to care which party is in power?

I'm pleased that Labour lost, as they are proving to be disastrous for the country. However, I'm not pleased that the Tories won, as I'm not naive enough to think for a minute that they'll do any better.

Just think what might have happened if all the people who didn't vote turned up and voted for one of the smaller parties?

It's good to see the Iraqi Information Minister is still safely ensconsed in Labour Party HQ drafting their positions for them. I had worried that in this time of economic hardship that his job may be at risk, but it seems they use now him more than ever.
"The Tories got less votes this time than last time so they can't claim this is a victory"? Seriously, is that the best line they have? Voter turnout was down 27% on the last election. For them to have not lost a single vote, they'd have had to poll at some 45% of the vote share this time round - or, put another way, 16.5% is too puny a swing for the Tories to claim victory; they needed something closer to 20% Do they really think that we the public are that stupid that we won't see through that?
What Labour need to be doing is pushing the softness of the Tory/Labour movements. How much of that 6% gain will hold up come the General? How much of their almost 30% loss will remain? I suspect that the fact that they are grasping at threads that would make a straw look positively obese means that the numbers are not as soft as they need them to be.

There there Nick, there may just be a job in the Guardian after the next election, then again, without the support of Labour advertising may be not. I here Labour are offering training courses for anybody out of work for a year. If you quit now you will qualify for one when the Tories win the GE. You would make a good bin man.

2 wrongs dont make a right ; the people of Norwich will have felt the same as most at the expenses revealations. That didnt mean that it was a fait acompli that deselecting their member would then: 'make the gov ern ment look strong and tough and brave and honest' ( say it in a sing song up and down. Im sure the cabinet and wonks did)

What's happened Mr Robinson? Has Peter Mandelson removed the electrodes from your testicles?

Good grief. Time for change going on - on my radio. Mr Cameron. He accuses the Government of peddling untruths? lol

And the European Elections results.

And half the story still, Nicholas.

What are we waiting for now?

So can I misbehave with your threads text? Censor it if you will. I expect that nowadays from a BBC who do not know whose side it is own. Its listeners or vested interest.

Subject: a massive swing nicholas robinson
Anagram: Novel Inns Wigs ass - Harmonica's bio

Need I say MOOR?

Brown = 'Sunny Jim' Callaghan. Crisis what crisis?

Another ex-chancellor with no rapport whatsoever with voters.

The political cowardice of cabinet ministers will lead to devestating defeat for Zanu-NuLabour at the next election. What are they afraid of? Brown has no credibiltity, no popularity, no patronage to dispense, or deny, his threats hardly matter any more. HE IS A LOSER.

Yet still they just can't bring themselves to do the necessary - they deserve the oblivion thats in store for them.

out of the frying pan into the fire is what we the voters have to suffer from parliment as a whole, no matter what every thing is decided by party bosses so untill we destroy the parties hold on government nothing will change.
neu-labour is the tory party in all ways bar the name.
the tory party has run itself ragged trying to counter itself.
no party is worthy of running the country and should bow out before every one realizes they are basicly self interested.

35. The_Butcher_007 wrote:
"There there Nick, ......" etc

I think that is out of order, are you really such a sad specimen that you have nothing better to say?

I decided to play the dangerous game of extrapolation. Shouldn't be done, of course, but you can bet the political parties are so I thought I'd give it a go.

At the GE it is reasonable to assume that the smaller candiates will lose support. Lets assume that 2,000 of the 4,000 UKIP voters turn to the Tories and that 2,000 of the 3,000 Green votes become Labour ones. Lets also assume that the vast majority of the independant vote disappears - spread evenly across the parties (1,000 extra votes to Conservatives and Labour). That would leave the Tories with 48% of the vote and Labour with 27%. On a 61% turnout (as per 2005) that would give the Conservatives a majority of 9,700.

Its interesting that the Lib Dems didn't pick up any protest vote at this bye-election.

Yes, Nick.

It is terribly bad for the Tories that Labour's vote collapsed by 26% this time as against 18% in Crewe & Natwich.

Things just go from bad to worse for them, don't they?

Another big defeat for Labour and usual tired cliche from Brown that he is "getting on with the job"

When is the overwhelming truth going to penetrate his thick skull? The British don't don't want him to get on with the job. They want him to get lost.

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

It does not matter who wins if the incoming MP follows the imprudent example of her predecessor. It only matters if the new MP is going to do something to make Parliament a better, fairer and cheaper place for taxpayers.If another cheating MP gets, in we will all be losers. Only time will tell.

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

#8 Brown's ego has for years been destroying the Labour party from within. When are Labour going to get rid of him?


The Labour Party can't/won't get rid of Brown now. Why? most of the people who worked hard put put Labour into power became so disgusted about the results that they voted with their feet and left. Party membership has slumped since 1997 - and many of the remaining rump are anything but enthusiastic.

It's not just Brown's ego. Blair's ego was just as bad or worse: he started the rot with his contempt for both the voters and erstwhile party members.

I can't see a new leader doing any better. To my mind the potential replacements are political dinosaurs fighting over the rotting corpse of a defunct party. The General Election will bury it, and then British politics can move on.

I personally would vote for any party leader who promised to go to the funerals of British servicemen killed in action and NOT to the "nuptuals" of News International Executives.

Come on Nick - give credit where it is due -

The fact that NuLab even won this seat in the Euro elections speaks volumes for the massive kicking took today -

change of government in Australia, then US of A and finally New Zealand - a sign perhaps!

Labour is doomed! There's no doubt about that.

Keep up the good work Nick. Your blog makes a refreshing change from Mr. Webb's Obama love-in.

In all fairness, thank you for fairly and squarely eating your words.

I still think getting any implicit acknowledgment from the BBC that the Conservatives are NOT a bunch of baby-eating aliens is like getting blood out of a stone. The left is too readily taken at its own word, especially the word "progressive", when the nature of progress should be one of the things the BBC debates, rather than assumes.

Equally insidious, in my view, is the attempt (puerile in the extreme, as we saw in Nick's previous blog entry) to "guide the [sc. idiot] public through the jungle of spin". That just means joining in with the spin. Report the facts and discuss the issues. Spending most of the time discussing the way in which the facts and issues are being avoided is just overcomplicating things ... which many might say the BBC has learned to excel at, because it makes it seem more important than it is.

Total denial from Grodon Brown and Harriet Harman as well as all the newlabour apologists on these posts.

An appalling turnout says Harriet - but that appplies to all aprties not just newlabour.

Unprecedented circumstances, bleats Gordon Brown - but that applies to all parties not just newlabour.

Whatever next?

It was the year of the Ox? Applies to all parties. It was a Thursday? Yep, same as the other parties.

When are Harriet and Gordon going to unsderstand nobody wants them to run the country?

Nobody wants even more taxation; nobody wants mroe and more waste in the public sector. No-one wants all this debt.

Call an election.

From Brown at his press conference on Wednesday ....
"1228: Brown says that he hopes voters in Norwich and Glasgow by-elections will recognise which party has the best policies for the recession."

They have recognised that that party is not Labour.

Remember this wasn't even the by-election that really scared "labour", thats still to come in glasgow. :-)

There's nothing sadder than watching a government on life support, if you thought corruption was endemic now just wait till they realise they'll be out in the cold anyway.

In a proper democracy there would be some way to pull the plug on this sort of self-serving, fill-your-boots government.

If people can get out of jail if they prove, essentially, they don't belong there surely we can punt people from government for the same thing?

Whats the point of having accountablity when these people are invincible for another year?

If any "labour" members are reading this please, please, please do whats best for the counrty, not whats best for yourselves. It might be tempting to hang on till May and get all those juicy expenses but this is not a private company you are deliberatley screwing over, its 4 entire nations and 60 million people.

OK. A by-election out of the way. Fairly predictable outcome.

I still can't find a parliamentary procedure that says (as Brown stated in his press conference) that there is somehow a different set of rules surrounding by-elections if a Speaker resigns than if an "ordinary" MP resigns. Both are essentially MPs and are obliged to apply for the Chiltern Hundreds (accepting some other publicly-paid post) in order to leave parliament. Both left constituents who deserve representation in the House. But I can't find any constitutional differences.

So why did Brown say there was something "special" about calling a by-election to replace the discredited Speaker?

Any ideas Nick?

(BTW: Looks like the economy is still going down the pan. I'm surprised that Brown got into such a mess by denying "spending cuts". The logical thing would have been to say that, with economic activity in freefall, planned spending would be higher as a percentage of GDP!!!!

I'm still waiting for another goon to say that child-poverty has been cut again, because in relative terms (with so many private employees losing jobs or taking pay-cuts, therefore average income is declining) those dependent on state benefits look better off now than before.

Where are the creative spin-doctors when you need them?)

At least the labour excuse has changed from "we will learn from this" - have they finally learnt that the nation has had enough of them!

I thought Gordon Brown was in denial but listening to him after the Norwich result it's much worse than that.
If as Brown says there were underlying factors, then why not have the by election for Michael Martin's seat very soon, and not wait until November. Is Brown brave enough to do more than just spin.

Gibson's fate in Norwich should have been left to the local party. Party members and the public are sick of being treated with contempt by the PM and government. We are NOT all stupid.

Referring to a previous controversy on this blog. I am disgusted by ALL political leaders who toady to Rupert Murdoch. Why was there so much spotlight on Cameron's assistant, and almost none on the nauseating relationship between New Labour and News International?

Why did Gordon Brown find it necessary to attend Rebekah Wade's most recent wedding? Does he admire her example against domestic violence?

https://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4408746.stm

To me this toadying is a form of treason. We are conditioned to see our enemies in foreign states or religions, but in my view Murdoch's organisation is as much an enemy of the British people as Al Qaeda. It has been undermining our culture and political institutions for decades. When are our politicians going to have the guts to stand up to it?

I seem to detect sour grapes amongst the Tories blogging today? Weird. Lighten up, you won.
I dread to think what you'll be like when Labour lose the next election to you (Just like you lost to them in '97, in fact!)

Oh and oldrightie:
'Will BBC jobs be in the gift of The Conservatives as they have been under Labour? I do hope so. What a stunning result in Norwich. Is democracy about to return to our shores?'
Don't you think that this has been part of the BBC's problem? Their independence has been attacked by the present government and you want the Conservative party (if/when elected) to take over where New Labour left off? Can't you see the gulf between your wish for a return to 'democracy' and a goverment controlled media. Typically muddled conservative 'thinking'!

31. At 3:16pm on 24 Jul 2009, enigmajx wrote:
"The truth is that Mr Cameron has done more than enough to look on course for an election victory and Labour has done badly enough to fear that one is inevitable. "

Well, one shall prepare for the dark ages just as the previous generation prepared for such times leading up to May 3rd 1979.

:-(

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

May 3rd 1979 was the end of another disastrous Labour run of office.
Remember that Labour have destroyed the economy ever time they have gained power.

This is just an historical fact.

Labour is now bringing forward spending (carrying out a scorched earth policy)

So that the Tory's will get the blame again for the pain caused by Labour but administered by the Tories.

But I think even this is wrong now. I think people will always now remeber that Laboour gives the British economy cancer and the Tories have to administer Chemo.

I hope there is one Labour MP after the GE one G Brown who will be the laughing stock we all know he is.

Unfortunately this was such a bad result for New Labour that they will now be Superglueing their fingertips to cling on just a little bit longer....

I just watched an 'interview' by a BBC question reader-outer with Ms. Harman.

In the course of about 3 minutes, the only thing I recall was her saying the Conservatives were saying the election was in the bag, and hence were very arrogant.

If that is indeed what is being said then the latter is close to true, though I'd say cocky would be a more accurate, yet still foolish response, all things considered.

Thing is, is that really what 'they' have been saying? Or is it the last desperate gasp of spin this mouldy government is figuring might save them? If so, might one hope our £92k+ market rate talents reading the teleprompter might be moved to ask their interviewees to substantiate their claims, rather than providing a mute national pulpit for them, especially if inaccurate?

It matters not the least what anyone spins about this the result is a total Labour melt down and the end is in sight. What started out with such hope in 1997 is about to end in ignominy and it is the result of one man's attempt to completely socially engineer a new form of United Kingdom. The Prime Minister is solely responsible for all of this and I do not need to recount the litany of his failures; others do that on this blog regularly and with some feeling. I have one major issue and it concerns the prospects for the young today.

We do need to question the value for money we have gained out of the massive investments in schools. I cannot see a bight new educated youth emerging from our schools moving on to the so-called top jobs. They are simply not being equipped to do it. I wonder what Mr and Mrs Balls have in mind next July? Perhaps creating a City Academy in their own image to teach their values to those who want to listen? I would not put it past them.