Language of the downturn

Gordon Brown is toast and the whole of the labour party knows it.

You can go on pretending the tide is not coming in for a very long time but now he's drowning in his own contradictions. Call an election

Oh dear, Nick, is that it? Really, is that it?

My screen on this blog has gone lilliputian.

Can't get your speech on the link.

Whatever the language Brown uses it is clear he caused the whole thing in order to give birth to a New World Order which will cause hell throughout the whole world.

For God's sake somebody stop him. He is quite quite mad.

We need blue skies around the corner and fast.

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

Nick,

Who cares what words are used to describe the present crisis? They might distort perceptions for a time, but they won't change the reality of the situation.

Surely the big news today is the report in yesterday's Independent On Sunday that the HBoS whistleblower Paul Moore has evidence linking Gordon Brown directly to the failings in the regulatory regime he set up:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/blame-brown-revenge-of-the-whistleblower-1622467.html

This story, like the current crisis, isn't going to go away by calling it something else.

Hi Nick,

Interestingly, Gordon Brown has asked one of his advisers to obtain video footage of every time Obama has been contrite or apologied during the campaign (yet still went on to win, of course). Wonder waht this could mean.

See you in the pub.

Nick - Why are you fiddling while Rome burns?

The economy - Brown's decade-plus long mismanagement - is in Freefall; Our Home Secretary is facing serious allegations of expenses fraud; Labour is imploding; and all you can do is prattle on about 'linguistics'.

It's not funny.

The government has been hopelessly innacurate in their economic predictions for a while now. One month we're due to come out of the recession this summer, the next it's going to be the worst recession in 100 years. One minute we're the best placed to weather the storm, next thing we know the IMF is telling us we're the worst placed. The government is either spinning like crazy or incompetent, either way they're not doing any good. Someone get rid of Brown before his obsession with staying in power at any cost wrecks the economy for good.

Just goes to show, you can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time... eventually though, the truth will out. Not with any help from Auntie Beeb though, thats for certain.

What matter the words that he uses, when he steadfastly refuses to answer any questions and accept any of the blame or ferret out those that responsible on his watch

So far as I can see, the language of the recession is downright lies. Stephen Timms on Sky news this morning actually denied that the government in general or Gordon Brown in particular had anything to do with the LLoyds HBOS merger, apart from one piece of facilitation in terms of the competition rules.

These people clearly have no shame.

Is this the future of BBC Blogs, Two paragraphs, a link to other content that cant be veiwed unless you download a ton of other stuff and minute text so that we cant read each others comments

Lib Dems and Labour neck and neck in latest poll.

Labour voters seem to be flocking to the Lib Dems.

Maybe Gordon has destroyed the Labour party as well as the country? Cheerful linguistics are not going to save his bacon.

https://www.comres.co.uk/page19072931.aspx

What would improve the cheerfulness of the country is if ZanuLabour and Gordon Brown resigned and didn't' contest the next election. It might just happen if people don't donate anything to the party that has wrought more economic damage to this country than Al Qaeda.
They could also take the person responsible for the new layout of this blog with them. Only allowing 2 line visible at one time is a poor reflection of the competence of the BBC.

so what now then?
the money has long gone,we have been left with the tab

The tories are no real alternative to Labour as Labour turned into the Tories, and they are no better, they have the same rhetoric and sleaze, the same connections to the men in black, maybe they could rebrand themselves though like Blackwater have, turn a dark, dingy operation into a consumer friendly operation.

The country and its people deserve and demand change, but not just in name, the whole system is broken all we will get is the same old same old, unless we demand it at the next election and the rules are changed to allow the people to claim back the power

I want everything out in the open, everything cleaned up and only then will I consider putting my x in the box, or rather press a button to have my vote made up

This is because Mr Brown is using Doublethink which by the way I think the Labour government have been able excell at since they have been in power

Nick

I am not even remotely interested in how Gordon manages to stay linguistically cheerful, while the rest of us struggle to make ends meet.

Isn't there anything more interesting to report - like what Mandleson was doing on Deripaska's yacht?

Will this blog be published in this new format for ever? It's dreadful!

Your blog has gone to Lilliput for some reason, maybe this is a Tory gremlin after you. Brown has changed his language in a forlorn hope that the slump/ recession/ depression is not actually happening. The man is in denial , perhaps he should ask Jeremy Clarkson to write his speeches, at least he seems to come up with the truth occasionally.

At last, a truly clear example of irony – the BBC critiquing somebody else’s use of scare words to describe the recession.

Nick,

Can I suggest that you read the article that post number 5 links to.

Take a look at the comments in response to your blog - we the licence fee paying public surely deserve some serious hard core investigation into Gordon Brown's management of the economy.

Given the gravity of the crisis - tittle tattle concerning linguistics is a dull sideshow.

Why can't the BBC investigate what has been happening at the Treasury over the last 11 years and report the truth.

Surely any journalist worth their salt should be tackling this question.

David Frost didn't expose Richard Nixon just by prattling on about nonsense like linguistics. He did some journalism and found out the truth.

#5 fairlopian_tubester Surely the big news today is the report in yesterday's Independent On Sunday that the HBoS whistleblower Paul Moore has evidence linking Gordon Brown directly to the failings in the regulatory regime he set up:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/blame-brown-revenge-of-the-whistleblower-1622467.html

This story, like the current crisis, isn't going to go away by calling it something else.

too right. Nick, I hope you are going to lead on this one soon?

The monotonous repeat/stammer which accompanies his dull diatribes are of no interest to me at all. The sooner he is gone the better.

If "staying linguistically cheerful" is top of the Prime Minister's concerns right now, then God help us all.

I thought the correct language for the current situation was the "Brownturn".

When the government uses careful words to help reduce the risk of making a bad recession even worse, that's a good thing.

When the government actively lies and is in total denial about not just the global situation but their own accounts, that's a bad thing.

Brown/Labour have lied constantly about the debt and obfuscated the real figures for so long that they haven't been reporting on the real situation for several years, and that's why we're now in the worst position economically in the developed world; they've been refusing to accept reality/logic for so long that they've ended up destroying the economy completely.

Only a change of government will fix this, because Brown/Labour will never admit mistakes, and hence will never fix the situation which was of their own making.

If you (Nick) want to analyse language used; look closer to home (ie look at the BBC's language/reporting rather than the labour language) which has never questioned the government's own figures/logic, despite both of those things being in cloud-cuckoo land for many years.

Unbelievable Nick - the Sunday press has been packed with Labour sleaze -
Jacqui Smith's claims to be at her main home (ie spare bedroom in her sister's house) for most of the year shot to pieces by neighbours willing to testify,
Jack Straw and Alistair Darling also found to have similarly claimed 'second home allowance' on what by any proper definition is their main home,
David Miliband's extraordinary duplicity in his portrayal of relations with the US govt. and now Paul Moore's claim to have evidence to show that Gordon Browns claims are a complete fabrication of lies.
And all you see fit to mention is Brown's cheerful linguistics. Is this the latest Labour mantra the BBC has now adopted, you were quick to pick up on the Labour party line of the 'do nothing' Tory party and MPs who shouldn't be above the law (as long as they're not Labour that is!!!) and Jacqui Smith 'not having broken any rules' (by whose definition???).
By refusing to expose the level of corruption in the Labour government the BBC is condoning it and leaving the British public vulnerable to further abuse.
It seems that the BBC is not so much 'hideously white' as 'hideously Labour'.

No, it's important for the history of this period to understand the social dynamics of it, and that's what Nick's shooting at.
However; that's rather a limited viewpoint, as there's considerably more at play than meets the eye, even the most minute analysis.
Since Rahere turned preachy, for instance, he's met some otherworldly consequences, so either Rahere's flipped, or the truly dark forces - and he's not talking about out temporal masters here - have taken a shot where it hurts. Keep it up, folks, we're getting there!

21 Captain JuJu

Reference the link posted at #Fairlopian - I suggested Nick investigate that too at post 20 and got referred!

All this guff about linguistics is twaddle and nonsense.

Do journalists no longer have ambition? David Frost interviewed Richard Nixon and exposed the truth.

Do we not deserve journalists who are going to investigate what has been happening at the Treasury over the last 11 years??!!

Do I want an essay on the linguistics of the recession or would I prefer to understand the root causes that need to be fixed?


Let me think now......

There's an old saying in management, you get two out of three from cheap, quick and pretty.
Which one are they going to trade off this time? Hitherto they've been quick and pretty. That's Assistant Commissioner Quick to you, in case you thought I was wandering. I they intend going even prettier, then God help the AC.

Spot the difference in the BBC/Sky political reporting today:

Sky:
Poll Bad News for Brown
Confidence in PM Crumbles
PM Must Say Sorry

BBC:
Brown To Meet Pope

'nuff said.

Never mind which particular spin GB tries to put forward by using different catchphrases it is impossible to give his utterances any credence -- he seems to think that sincerity is an attribute which can be aquired by having acting lessons and that there is no necessity to actually believe what you say.
He, along with virtually all of his gang, seem incapable of answering a straight question with a straight answer -- what is so difficult about "yes" or "no" ?
Until ( if ? ) they all stop treating us as if we are totally naive and start to answer questions honestly, without blather and loads of red herrings they do not deserve to be heard, let alone believed.

without wishing to join the general rant Nick, this is a remarkably superficial posting.

With so many pressing political issues, presumably this is an interim post - I could not believe you would ignore the issues of the day

Labour has hit the wall, they are dead ducks.
There must be some process in parliment that gets rid of them.
A vote of no confidence (it would be understating Labours position) could be used surely.
A state of emergency should be called until they are no longer in power.
All policies should be made with the agreement with the majority of the house (excluding Labour) until a new government can be formed.
Now, before there is no country to govern, the mood is ugly, and likely to get worse.
£2 an hour for foreign workers, More banks looking for more money, it is bloody awful.

Nick, My post @7 was a tad harsh.

In retrospect I can see that your post, which provides a link to your report on the The Today programme, clearly demonstrates what a lying bunch of mealy-mouth charlatans our government really are.

Great! Brown to meet Pope,

Only God can save him now.

He is rubbish.

The beauty of this blog is that it would be impossible to be off topic because there isnt one

So, I guess that's it - Robinson's effort for the week and now we'll have until next Monday discussing among ourselves the various political stories that emerge between this and the next time the BBC's Political Editor deigns to blog again.
The Golem is destroying the Labour Party. It's finished. A busted flush. Just like the economy under the Golem it's going to be seen to have had a mammoth boom and a tragic bust.
The country wants change, or, more precisely, the country wants rid of the Golem and his Lilliputian (since Lilliput seems the word of the day) cronies. But the Golem loves power. Power is the end in itself and not a means to an end. Major was much the same. And look what happened to him, although fortunately he had the likes of Kenneth Clarke around. Kenneth Clarke knew Tory rule was coming to an end, so he ignored political expediency and sorted out the economy, leaving the Golem an enviable legacy.
Major's decision to retain power until the very last possible moment almost destroyed the Tories. Having been made to wait and wait to be rid of Major and Co, the country got rid of them with avengeance. It was armageddon at the ballot box as massive tactical voting saw LibDem voters back Labour where it mattered (Tory-LibDem marginals) and vice-versa.
I reckon the Golem will try and hang on longer by seeking to avoid going to the country even when his term is up. The next election, I suspect, will be called by Elizabeth II.
But by the time the Golem will have wrecked the kingdom for a generation, maybe several generations, maybe for good and all. He'll almost certainly have wrecked the Labour Party.

fairlopian_tubester 5

You are correct the story of the day is Mr. Moore, I do not see any reason to speculate on what G. Brown is thinking or saying or what we are calling this crisis now.

I wish we could get some reporting of G. Browns involvement in the banking crisis. He is now linked to the failure of the banks, the FSA, the merger at Lloyds, the bankers themselves, why are we not getting any news on this.

This report is of no interest.

The Dolly Bots are not posting any comments today - yet as ever they are referring comments that cause them problems.


Here is an experiment to see if I can get anything past the Dolly Bots today:


"Personally I Jonathan Cook believe that this is a global crisis that started in America, that linguistically these are merely difficult times and that Gordon Brown is doing the right thing for hard working families unlike the do nothing Tories."

And Ashely reckons Brown's being lined up to be global financial regulator ?

Heaven help us !

Nick, this is getting pretty ridiculous.

And it's you looking the ridiculous one.

Grow some cojones and give us something to comment about. There's enough about.

It is no longer a case of `if' Brown goes but more `when' Brown goes.

The longer he leaves it the worse it will be for the Labour Party. If the Labour backbenchers have any sense they will push him out now. If they don't they will all be looking forward to the joyful prospect of attending their local Job Centre Plus. I wonder if it will be the one local to their first or their second home?

My concern is not the future of Brown or the Labour Party but what happens next. Now it is not a case of confusing the end of the tunnel with a person holding a light, but a man or a woman with a light would be most welcome.

It is way too late for Gordon Brown to smile his way to victory at the next election. Two weekend papers (Times & Independent) released polls showing that any hope of resurgence for Labour is dead in the water - 25points just wont cut it.

By the way, there was no comment or mention of these polls anywhere on the BBC - why?

35 HarryPagetFlashman

Given the messianic status bestowed upon Brown by the BBC, I think they're reporting it wrong for their policy, the BBC line should read:
"Pope to Meet Brown"

rather than
"Brown to Meet Pope"

After all, Brown is the chosen one according to the BBC.

Laguage of the downturn is it Nick...

Ok, heers a couple fo key terms for you. DEPRESSION & CORRUPTION, the first is what we are in and the other emanates from this stinking government.

Tell us about the expenses fiddles and the whistleblower fingering the incompetent idiot who is still somehow in charge.

Nick

Wake me up when 'Flash' Brown leaves Number 10 for the short eco-friendly journey to the Palace.

Meantime, I'll keep listening to 'Flash and Crash' waffling on again about how there are so many unfilled job vacancies and how all this started in the USA and catch up on much needed sleep in the process. Zzz.

Responsibilty. Responsibility. Responsibilty? Gordon Brown, PM.

Location Location Location? Number 10.

Relocation Relocation Relocation? Job Centre

ps. who benefited from the Corporate Fraud now being unearthed inside the Banks and in the City?

44 GROGN

Perhaps, whatever way you shake it, he will soon be found on the right hand of Blair, in rubbish PM heaven.

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

No 43 no one cares about The Times or The Independent. Yes, I read The Independent; it's a great newspaper, apart from the Labour-loving duo of Richards (worships Brown) and Rentoul (worships Blair), while the nonsense of Brian Anderson (hates everybody and everything apart from Republican neo-conservatives in the States) grates.
What matters is The Sun. Labour has kowtowed to The Sun for years. I'd imagine that No 10 is wringing its hands over Trevor Kavanagh's damning indictment of the Golem. Kavanagh always echoes his master's voice and his master in Rupert Murdoch. If The Sun turns decisively against Labour, that's it.
And to think of all the exclusives that have mysteriously come Kavanagh's way over the years. It must seem such a long time ago that someone was slipping him the "Hutton Report".

Much as I agree with the majority of sentiment on this topic, I do think the anger directed at the messenger (Nick) is misplaced.

He is drawing attention to the change of language which I feel is probably attributable to the influence of Alastair Campbell.

The problem for Gordon Brown is that it's already too late. He's has been found out and no amount of re-wording - also known as spin - will help him.

# 39 jonathan_cook

Was wondering what you had to say in your earlier posts - perhaps we'll get to know when you've had another go!

I think I have a inkling as to was Nick was going on about.

We all know, i think it is generally accepted by almost everyone except the most deluded, that we are in tough times caused by;

too much private debt,
too much corporate debt and
too much government debt.

The reason for this can be fairly and squarely laid at Crash's door.

Why? It was he that told us boom and bust had gone and nearly everyone accepted that. If there was to be no bust then all this credit was manageable as all could keep up the repayments. Once the bust came, less money and people start to default. The general thought being, if the goverment can borrow during the good times so can I. It was a state of mind that Crash perpetuated.

I think this is why everyone has to be careful about language. I think Cameron is on to something when he talks about 'nudging' the people in a certain direction with the careful use of language. People, whether they like it or not, sometimes take their cue from the attitude and words of our political leaders.

On another point, why oh why is the (2) home secretary announcing more reductions in red tape. From the BBC's own story about this, there are at least 5 occasions in the last year when this same 'crackdown on red tape' has been announced. It wouldn't have anything to do with her media mauling over the weekend, would it?

boabycat

Ms Smith was on BBC Breakfast this morning.

She smiled her way through all the answers she gave when pressed about her primary home allowance.

Sickening.

No 52 you're bang on the button, which is why all this nonsense from the government about blaming bankers is nonsense. Everything stems from the Golem-proclaimed end to "boom and bust". The demise of "boom and bust" meant that there were no risks for bankers - the good times would roll forevermore.
All this doom and gloom stems from that one huge act of hubris from the Golem. The said bit is, nemesis looks like finishing the UK.

I listened to Nick's piece, and I'm sure he's right, the number one priority for ministers is to find a form of words that conceals their own incompetence.

I have a suspicion that for New Labour language and appearance are more important than policy and reality. We've had 12 years of brilliant soundbites, endlessly repeated to appeal to voters who only take an interest in politics occasionally.

Finally, and its taken a long time, the use and abuse of language is no longer fooling the wider electorate. Expect some new soundbites though. As everything crashes around Gordon's bunker one last effort will be made to design a few more anti-Tory slogans. And expect a very dirty election.

4 Jonathan~Cook

Ater reading the link to the Sun I have to agree entirely with Trevor Kavannah.

He seems to be able to voice an opinion which many other jounalists are shying away from.

Perhaps they are frightened they might be chucked out of the lobby group if they differ from the official line.

Seeing as we have a PM who would be president and a labour party executive who have gone along with everything he says who is there to throw him out?

Only the electorate and he's not going to give us the oppportunity until he has to.

The longer he gives himself in power the more time he has to cover up his big bloomers.

Eventually he will have to go to the country but in the twelve months he's got left the trail of havoc he leaves in his wake could be irreversibly catastrophic.

The Labour party will suffer for such inaction and will be virtually wiped out of existance.

Not good for the country for the last thing we need ever again is a one party state.

At 1:56pm on 16 Feb 2009, virtualsilverlady wrote:

Not good for the country for the last thing we need ever again is a one party state.

I agree.

I believe there should and will be a two party state after the next election: Tories and Lib Dems

No4 jonathan-cooke
You would be well advised not to take too much notice of Murdoch stooges. Mr Brown is still PM because he is the leader of the governing party and can command a majority in the House of Commons. It is as simple as that. However, I am aware that it is probably too difficult for rather dim, politically backward Tory inclined bloggers to understand.

No 56, Kavanagh went even further in this piece a month or so ago:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/kavanagh/article2171331.ece

......What are the odds on Ms J Smith still using her sister back room (ooops sorry main residence ) after the summer re shuffle ?

Ah, it took until 2.30 near as spit, but finally, a head appears above the defending parapet....

I think it probably is the worst global recession for 100 years. Not least, beacsue the global economy has only taken off in the last decade or so, bringing China and India into the fold.

What bothers me slightly, is that I still suspect that we've only seen the tip of the Iceberg...

61 FS

Yes....but it was rubbish......

"Trevor Kavannagh in The Sun today captures the mood of the nation - and asks "Why is Brown still Prime Minister":"
------------------------------------------------

Kavannagh is right to raise the question, but he could easily answer it too.

The answer as to why Brown is still in power, is because we do not have a legally binding mechanism for removing a Prime Minister and a Government that a clear majority of people (75 - 80% or more) feel are not fit for purpose and who are in breach of their overall contract with the electorate.

There should be a mechanism whereby in exceptional circumstances, people can force a referendum on the Government and then a general election could follow.

We have no means to sack a majority government that has patently failed, other than an impeachment vote in the commons and our elected MP's do not have the courage or moral rectitude to use such a tool. I mean if they backed away from impeaching a Prime Minister that lied the country into war, there is no way they will have the courage or moral rectitude to impeach one for merely leading us to economic ruin.

I do have sympathy with Flame's view that this crash is not actually a symptom of Brown's incompetence. More like a deliberate policy to ruin the economy and the associated currencies to create a new global currency.

Today on Breakfast news they were glorifying plans to introduce a cashless society and the plans to replace ALL transactions with electronic means. Leaving the banks and the Government's in a potential veto position of control over ALL transactions.

There will be NO privacy left to ordinary individuals AT ALL!

I often use a rugby match to explain the woes in the economy and to the government

The FORMA boom is the run to score.

The conservative player after a troublesome run hits open ground and passes the ball to labour - labour makes a impressive dash towards scoring - unstoppable as the labour player darts to the finish, neatly dodging all opposition from the Iraq player, the cash-honour player, referendum player - He thinks he is so unstoppable - he waves to the crowds the with the spectators cheering at the sight.

Within seconds of scoring while the player is showboating to the crowd he almost slips and stumbles - staggering he sees the final home stretch and limps towards it

Suddenly he sees a northern looking rock in the pitch and manages to just leap over it.

The crowd thinks he may just do it and starts to cheer again not as loud as before but they cheer him on.

He finally trips on a lump of toxic poo he didn’t see, and comes crashing to the ground and loosing the ball - he frantically fumbles about to find the ball to continue the run - he is so dazed he picks up the ball and starts to run only to find out it wasn’t the ball only another lump of toxic poo - but time is up and no chance to go back for the ball.

The spectators are angry by having their hopes dashed - they start to boo and boo and boo the labour player, they throw scorn on him as he was the one with the ball and he was the one that tripped.

Later in the bath the labour player mulls over the situation ?

If he had passed the ball back to the conservative player earlier it would be him getting the scorn

If I had gone down the centre of the pitch instead of the right he might have missed the toxic poo altogether

If I had not forced the firing the old trusted groundskeeper, the pitch would have been kept clear.

Meanwhile on the other side of the bath the conservative player is grinning and going phew at the same time.

In the centre of the bath the lib-dem player pops his head above the water looking for his rubber ducky.

Such is politics

Is it my imagination or are the newlabour apologists incapable of defending their disgraceful track record in bringing us to this pretty pass?

Any attempt to criticise the dear leader reults in personal attacks from newlabour apologists.

Tories are dim and stupid - too dim and stupid obviously to have invented the amazing all singing and dancing Tripartite structure hwere everyone simultaneously disappears at the first sign of trouble...

Well if being dim and stupid is hanging around to take the wrap when something goes wrong, then count me in. There are far too many problems in our country that newlabour and its apolists have simply walked away from; education, health, welfare reform, workshy millions, failing infrastructure, broken financial regulation, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, immigration, pensions, the list of their failures is endless.

What is clear is that Gordon Brown is incapable of apologising for the fact their was no boom; no productivity growth, just an unregulated credit boom that is now bust.

Those who cannot accept their part in the inflating of the bubble should not be allowed near mending the bust.

Call an election

@ 6. At 10:37am on 16 Feb 2009, Common-Scents wrote:

"Hi Nick,

Interestingly, Gordon Brown has asked one of his advisers to obtain video footage of every time Obama has been contrite or apologied during the campaign "

----------------------------------------

So he is planning on an apology eh? no-doubt he will be coached in appearing contrite and sincere too.

It is too late for that. The only way that Brown can ACTUALLY give a believable apology and appear sincere is if he actually takes responsibility for the extreme depths of the crash in this country and resign forthwith.

Taking responsibility does NOT mean saying I am sorry and doing nothing about it. taking responsibility in this case means losing his job and his pension like over a million other workers will in the next 18 months.

Anything less than that is pure spin and is utterly worthless.

All sincere and genuine apologies have three elements.

1. The apology, = I am sorry.
2. The admission of responsibility and why = It was my fault, I thought A but in fact it was B, I was wrong.
3. A call to action like a promise to put right what was wrong = I will not do it again, I will be more responsible in future, I will introduce measures that prevent X,Y or Z....

In Brown's case the only acceptable apology should be along the lines of:

(1) I am deeply sorry.

(2) I miscalculated the strength of the British economy and ignored warnings of the unsustainable credit and the irresponsible levels of risk taking place in the credit markets in this country on my watch. I was wrong to do this and now we are in a deeper, longer and far more serious depression than would have been the case had I performed my role as Chancellor with more care. It was wrong and I was at fault.

(3) I immediately tender my resignation and shall ask Her Majesty the Queen to dissolve Parliament and call an election.

Anything less is only empty spin to con voters.

Perhaps talking lingo is interesting for those interested in politics, but maybe a discussion of Brown's and Darling's (pre-)budget forecasts is more .........

A few weeks ago NIESR put out its forecast for the UK's debt-to-GDP ratio of 70% by 2012 (excluding all the costs for bank bail outs). The European Commission forecasts the ratio to hit 72% by the end of 2010 (this probably includes bail out costs). Just before the end of last year, Brown was forecasting a 57% debt-to-GDP ratio by 2013 (excluding the costs for bailouts). The Brown forecast was way too optimistic even when it was published with the prebudget and smacked of manipulation of the figure to call an early election in perhaps March(recovery in second half of 20009!?). Brown also ran a budget deficit in 2005 and 2006 to help grease the handover from Blair and call an early election late 2007 or early 2008. The appointment of Blanchflower, a well-known dove, to the monetary policy of the bank of england in 2006 also should have helped the feelgood factor of Brown's first days as PM.

A disingenuous person uses disingenuous lingo.

PS I'm not a conservative voter in any shape or form but I do think that Cameron's half-decent performance at the autumn 2007 conservatives conference made Brown decide to keep the election powder dry.

#58

I think you will find that Mr Brown is PM because Blair walked before he was knifed in the back. Meanwhile there is no one in the current Labour Party who is likely to do the same to Brown. Unlike the brave Bravesouter, who amongst the Cabinet will stand up to Brown?

All the while, Brown mutters something about being right, and his words are carried by the Beeb without any attempt at analysis. Pathetic - Innit.

ATB - we certainly need it.

A simple downdate or backdate (as opposed to update) on Labour spin:

For those out of the know: Campbell arranged the buses and flags and people to come to London and cheer Blair into nr 10 in 1997. These people did not just turn up by surprise. Spin and manipulation straight from day 1!

Interesting angle on the above would be to check how the buses were paid for .........

No 85, ah, but bravesouter, the greatest Murdoch stooges were Blair and the Golem:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brown-refuses-to-reveal-contacts-with-murdoch-777681.html

re 67 PurpleDog (Prince fan?), Brown requesting for the Obama tapes,

This is deliberate spin again, since it should convey that Brown so clearly thinks he does not bear any responsibility for the state of the UK economy following his 10 years as chancellor that he needs to study a tape of someone saying he made a mistake along the way.

Ha, Brown wrote a few books but he can't spell the words responsibility and sorry; strange he pretends to know a few things about courage.

For someone to obtain tips on how to make an apology, says something about the way they were bought up really doesn't it?

subedeithemomgol, nr 71,

I think Blair told Murdoch the UK were about to invade Iraq prior to telling parliament or any other media.

Could somebody please explain what auditors do today? I believe that the Enron auditors ended up in prison but it seems that in this country they charge huge sums to ignore gross iregularities in Company Accounts.

No 74, it's more likely to have been the other way around - Murdoch telling Blair the UK was going to invade Iraq.
Blair and his New Labour cronies were always in the pocket of Murdoch - they never forgot that "Will the last person..." headline in The Sun on the day of the 1992 election.

A lot of doomsters gather on this blog, and I imagine they're generally right, but what I'd like to ask is this: what, seriously, will the UK be like in say 2 years?
We keep reading "It's the end for Britain", and so forth, but what exactly do people foresee? Riots, the complete collapse of sterling, a Churchillian bid to unify with France (read your history!), or what?
I am genuinely interested in hearing sensible, thoughtful forecasts....

Really Nick so much going on at the moment, surely this isn't the sum total of your analysis of the the weekends events.
Come (if for nothing more than the licence fee) we expect more from the Chief Political Editor.

#77

I can certainly forsee demonstrations, and maybe even a general strike if too many people lose their homes and jobs.

I can also see Britain becoming even more expensive to live in than it is now, with public services being cut back drastically to pay the huge debt racked up by this government.

Not very upbeat, but there we are.

Is it just me, or is it the case that everywhere one looks right now the leading indicators of economic meltdown are pouring in thick and fast? Where's Peston when you need him most?

If I'm reading the portents correctly, life as we know it has about 3 - 6 months to run before our economic circumstances become unrecognisably different to anything we've seen before.

Then what? Does all this economic mayhem mean that social mayhem (aka "civil unrest") is just around the corner. What is one supposed to do to prepare for this exactly?

Pass me the revolver Carruthers ...

Further to #6. At 10:37am on 16 Feb 2009, Common-Scents wrote:

"Hi Nick,

Interestingly, Gordon Brown has asked one of his advisers to obtain video footage of every time Obama has been contrite or apologied during the campaign "
---------------------------------------

Far be it from me to agree with a Guardian columnist, but this section from Jackie Ashley sums up Gordon Brown perfectly,


"But I also watched Gordon Brown's evidence to the liaison committee this week and found myself squirming as he refused, again and again, to apologise for any failings on his part. This has become embarrassing."


This is why any subsequent apology will NOT be believed UNLESS it is accompanied by a resignation and an election.

He has been given ample opportunities, hints, directions to apologise and there has even been pleading and begging by sympathetic members of the media who are actually trying to help him, by suggesting he apologise.

I can even imagine that there are already pre-written leader columns that praise his apology and give him another chance. In the same vein that even the Daily Mail was sickening in its praise for Gordon Brown's capable abilities when he became PM in 2007.

I remember writing to them suggesting psychiatric treatment at the time for such a view, but it they were adamant that Brown was the best man for the job and he would do us proud.

In spite of all this help, he has steadfastly refused to apologise AT ALL claiming instead that he has always been doing the "right thing!"

No apology would be believable at all now, without the resignation and election to follow.

Nick

Untill now I though Jonathan Ross was the most overpaid member of BBC staff.

I take it this was postes as a 'holding' ploy while you work out a good spin on the disaster that is brown.

Following on from the Bank Bonuses fuss -- I wan't to know if Brown will be repaying his salary from the past decade -- he clearly wasn't doing what he claimed nor what he was supposed to be doing.

Maybe I am misjudging you, and you are actually doing the mandy/oleg research at last - I do hope so.

colonelGeeWhizz 77

You pose an interesting question, the next two years in my opinion are going to be really bad, but a lot really depends on who wins the election. However, you will see much higher taxation, cuts in the public sector, discontent as the underclass who are uneducated become more distant from any public order. Labour have lost a whole generation of children, with poor education policies. In general you will see high unemployment with the British not having the skills to compete. Britain I think is a failing nation. We do not produce anything any more, we have expanded the public sector to a degree that is unsustainable, everything is foreign owned. We have thrown away our wealth on war and aid to countries.

You will see investors go abroad due to high taxation. You will see discontent over the immigration which has been allowed to get out of hand. A lack of housing as people become evicted due to not being able to meet their mortgages. At the moment Brown is delaying trouble to come, to win the next election.

Labour did not use the good years to plan for the future.

Looking ahead beyond 2 years I think is frightening to be honest.

77 Colonelgeewizz.

How about:
1 Government will have to put up taxes (for those who actually pay tax).

2 Companies move their registered offices abroad.

3 People who can leave the UK find somewhere else where their skills are appreciated, other than as milch cows by ZanuLabour.

4 Government nationalises the banks and any remaining companies.

5 Nothing gets planted in the first spring as the farmers have no fuel and fertilisers. Government takes over farms and give them to their ministers. .

6 New Governor of the Bank of England starts printing money, remaining population start buying wheelbarrows.

7 Gordon Brown goes on TV and blames the Zimbabwe Government for applying sanctions on the UK. He says "I will do everthing in my power to ...............".

8 Appoints Sir Richard Mottram as his new spokesman to bury bad news. He likewise only has one script which turns out to be remarkably accurate (look it up on Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Mottram%29.

@77

All forecasts are off until someone can call the floor and put some confidence back into the markets that seem to underpin the whole way our markets operate.

I would try to organise a demo to see what your government has done to curb terrorism and maybe even your civil rights to lawful protest

Nick,

I am surprised that more has not been made of the allegations concerning the Foreign Secretary, Milliband, and the apparent request for the US to send the letter which was used by the courts to suppress information about our involvement in torture.

Can we take that there is more bad news to come out as Radio Five Live ran a propaganda programme from Sandhurst this morning. Great, soldiers sign up apparently for the adventure and comaraderie, not to kill foreigners. We are the invaders in Afghanistan, we are killing huge numbers without trial based on the words of informants who want to settle old scores. Many are being killed as collaborators, this war must end, and we can take our Drones and sniper rifles with us.

No 77, it's hard to know how things will look like in two years time. But I can't believe they'll look very good. As soon as a modest recovery sets in inflation will take hold as a result of the amount of liquidity being pumped into the economy by idiots like King and Bernanke. If King decides to crank up the printing presses, it'll be worse. So any modest recovery will see interest rates having to rise and rise rapidly to counter inflation.
Interest rates should've risen sharply in 2005-2006 to stop the whole show going out of control, but that would've dashed the "low interest rate-low inflation economy" boast of the Golem.

• At 3:59pm on 16 Feb 2009, moraymint wrote:
Is it just me, or is it the case that everywhere one looks right now the leading indicators of economic meltdown are pouring in thick and fast?

***

Indeed, perhaps it’s just a mood, or some meteorological phenonema, but a strange stillness appears to have descended… like the calm before a storm.
Nothing seems to be happening. The BBC News front page hasn’t been updated much all afternoon. Still running the same Latest News ticker tape hour after hour ?
Is there anybody out there ?

Regards.

77 Colonel GeeWhizz

I recommend that you read this analysis:


[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]


There is a fair bit of financial analysis in this document, but it does a pretty good job of assessing the state of our nations finances and the measures and impacts we are going to have to take moving forwards over the next few years.


Needless to say - priority number 1 is finding a Prime Minister who is going to deal with the realities of the problems we face, rather than just sit in a bunker trying to keep his troops "linguistically" in line with a false view point.

You are cruel people, picking over the carcass of Gordons lexicon.

Gordon has explained everything, if only you would just listen.

For example, the tri-partite system, which, err, suffered a slight hiccup with Northern Rock.

Gordon defended the tri-partite system by patiently explaining that 'all systems require minor adjustments from time-to-time'.

As a systems engineer, I really admired the chuzpah in that statement, but know full well that if I'd offered that as an explanation for a catastrophic failure to any of my customers, I'd never work again.

I think we're better off listening to the very smooth Adair Turner, who explained that there had been a total intellectual failure at the 'policymaker' level to envisage that the systems themselves were generating greater risk over time, eventually leading to systemic failure.

As these systems were designed by humans, then humans are at fault.

Some of these people were bankers, but other as Turner acknowledged were regulators and yes ... politicians.

Brown and his chums are dead political persons walking.

Even Jesus would struggle to bring this lot back to life.

@ 77: "but what exactly do people foresee? Riots, the complete collapse of sterling, a Churchillian bid to unify with France (read your history!), or what?
I am genuinely interested in hearing sensible, thoughtful forecasts...."
----------------------------------

I think that will depend on what sort of politics we get after the next election. One thing is certain, Labour are finished. Will the tories replace them? It looks an odds on certainty now, but a lot can change in a disaster.

We may yet have enough people wake up and vote for local independent candidates to rid us of all the mainstream status-quo ESTABLISHMENT politicians. I won't hold my breath though.

@ 70... Reminds me of the famous toppling of the Saddam statue. Those were not locals either. They were a bunch of Ahmed Chalibi's henchmen flown in from Jordan. The American military had that square evacuated of locals before this "stunt" P.R. job.

No66 robinJD
You are right to draw attention to the superb improvements in the NHS since 1997.
We are surrounded with new hospitals in the area where I live. More doctors and nurses than ever before, with waiting times lower than at anytime in the history of the service. You could perhaps have mentioned the fact that nearly all surveys show that between 93-94% of patients are delighted with the treatment they receive. However, there is clearly still room for improvement. Have you any idea why the gutter press paint a different picture? Do you think the Old Etonian, past members of the thuggish Bullingdon Club and political novices currently leading the Tories will carry out those improvements if they are elected sometime in the future?

It is a great language, and they are living on another plaanet, that is why the Labour party have difficulty, especiaaly Brown.

I have no dificulty with reality, they are arrogant, buried in slease, The KNOW NOTHING PARTY. Thats why none of them saw it coming and even now Brown is obviously unaware oas to how bad it is. From their prospective it is ok, they have this great expense allowance, salary and that lovely pension to look forward to. Thats why Brown can't find the right words, he is not living in our world.
Everything is falling out of bed and he can't admit it, it has nothing to do with him, it all arrived from the US. HE needs to learn one word to start, Sorry.

60. ......What are the odds on Ms J Smith still using her sister back room (ooops sorry main residence ) after the summer re shuffle ?

What are the odds on her needing any room in London after the next election? Her seat is a margainal one so the voters should be able to have their say. Unfortunately though, apparently there are rumours that she will be offered a safe seat in Manchester - if Labour has any safe seats left by then.

64.

Perhaps we should be pushing for fixed term parliaments.

81.

Apparently, Paul Dacre editor in chief at the Daily Mail is a personal friend of Brown - no doubt carefully cultivated. Presumably, that is why - after campaigning for a referendum on the original EU consitution under Blair - the Mail was very quiet about the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty when Brown reneged on the manifesto promise.

There was a nauseating article by Alison Pearson in the Mail praising Brown a few months ago and a somewhat silly one by Peter Oborne more recently. However, a week or two later Oborne had changed his mind. He also did that with David Milliband. One week he was shaping up to be the best foreign secretary we've had for a long time. The next he was naive.

However, the Mail's attitude to Brown seems to have changed slightly over the past few weeks.

As far as the debate about linguistics is concerned, its not just Brown's language that is so worrying. It is his whole attitude. Given the state he has reduced the country to how on earth could he grin like a Cheshire Cat when appearing before the select committee last week?

It is my view that he is somewhere between the fantasy and denial stages of the trauma curve. When the next stage - reality - hits him he could well be heading for a breakdown. Not wishing to be mean but let's hope it occurs before the whole country suffers one.

Many here seem to despair that the BBC and Nick hasn't so far held the Government to account for direct links to failing Banks and Paul Moore's claim to have evidence to show that Gordon Browns claims are a complete pack of lies.

Then there is Jacqui Smith, Jack Straw and Alistair Darlings' so called 'second home allowance' tax free fiddle.

Quite right! I am beginning to despair that this lousy Government seem to be allowed to get away with just about anything withough so much of a wimper from the BBC.

However, with such an abundance of Labour Sleaze to choose from, i'm going to hold off until tomorrow, by which time i'm sure Nick will have plenty to say on exposing this Government for what it really is. Have a good day

@77

The UK economy and easily srink by about 10% from the 2006 base, this will not happen in one year but will happen over a few years, with contraction in the nominal GDP nr in 2009 and perhaps 2010

Why easily 10%?:
-6% for an increase in the savings ratio to 10%, which will reduce consumption by 10% while consumption accounts for 60% of GDP. The UK savings rate was zero in 2006 compared to 10% in France and Germany, also welfare state countries. You need to safe if your pension and job situation is not 100% bulletproof;
-2%, half of the 4%point increase in unemployment;
-2% hit from lower confidence and recovery of negative equity and bankruptcy costs.

Oh, and there is the disasterous polls showing Labour 'just' in front of the lib dems.

Have a busy evening Nick!

# 52 boabycat

Spot on.

My God, the bugger's pursuing me! If he's reading, ask the Pope about the Eucharist in Brussels, and stand by for some ripe language.

Returning to the subject of the thread, Nick was reckoning the debate in Faulty Towers is along the lines of "OK, optimism's failed, so how about pessimism?" as an approach to spinning their way out of this.

The first thing I not is that their concern isn't to sort the mess out (if it can still be sorted), but how to spin it. For me, that doesn't get any worse.

However, if they've now reached the point of recognising that this isn't a recession, and they need something one step below a depression, which doesn't exist, then let's invent something to describe one step worse than the Black Death, or Dark Ages, rolled into one.

So, Gordon, why not ask the Papacy about Abbot Malachy and the Apocalypse?