Green shoots (2)

We all got into this mess through over optomism, so perhaps it's the way out as well!

Davidurquhart was right.


OH look some real news:


https://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2009/01/a-good-day-to-a.html

You don't have to apologize or explain yourself for making a story out of this.

You should be explaining and apologizing for failing to make a story out of the government's hubris, mismanagement, incompetence and soaring national and private debt when it was still a work in progress.

It's a bit late now to be noticing the glib incompetence of the likes of Vadera. 'Indeed, Baroness Vedera herself was interviewed in the Telegraph in March and said that what made this crunch different from those of 10 or 20 years ago was that they had come with redundancies and closures.'

What kind of jackass would make a statement like that. Did she think this was some special Gordon Brown benign 'credit crunch' that crunched credit but didn't affect peoples spending?

The woman is an incompetent jackass and we and you should be shouting it from the rooftops.

The fact is that you shouldn't be able to get a word in edgeways what with the millions of others shouting about the entire government being a bunch of incompetent jackasses.

Still, good for you for sticking to your guns on this one. I look forward to your expose on Gordon 'no more boom and bust' Brown.

Put like that Nick I tend to agree with you. It was an unintentional gaffe (in the sense that she was probably unaware of The Lamont quote) but a gaffe nevertheless much in the same way as 'I saved the world' was. The two slips do however go some way towards explaining how these two were thinking at the time.

Isnt it a bugger when your victim is proved right. After hearing your jokey comments about Ms Vadera on Today, I set out on my rounds tuned to Radio 5 Live. On and after 10.00 am Victoria Derbyshire and the 5 Live News kept repeating a news release from the Royal Institiution of Chartered Surveyors (The estate agents trade union) which said that enquiries and requests to be registered as house buyers had increased for the last 3 months and were now running at twice the level of this time last year. Most seemed to be first time buyers hoping to enter the market. I assume that Ms Vadera would have been given advance notice of thie development and if that isnt evidence of at least one green shoot, I would like to know what is. This news being good does not appear to have been widely circulated across the news media and so Ms Vader remains in the dog house. I think an on air apology is called for.

It matters because it shows the stupidity of the woman. The newscaster set a trap and she plunged head-long into it. I bet he could hardly believe his luck. A sensible person would've, in cricketing parlance, "padded it away" with something like "you don't really expect me to talk about green shoots, do I look like Norman Lamont".

Dear Nick,

Thank you for clearing that up and stressing how out of touch this Mini-ster is.

Any more news on your other investigations yet on.....,

Mandy and a big house.
MP's changing the law to hide their exspenses.
Return of Big Ken.
Speaker Martin.
MP's only haveng 20 days at work before their next holiday, which is 2 days less than I get in holidays per year.
The next election.
That Russian yatch holiday and who else was on board and why.

Xxxx
ps, Next time you see GB, try and get him to wear a red tie. He is (Za)Nu(Improved) Labour you know.

Nick, you are being unnecessarily defensive. Baroness Vadera said (quoted by you!) "I am seeing a few green shoots but it's a little bit too early to say exactly how they'd grow"

So, it is not unreasonable to ask what "green shoots" did she have in mind? But as usual, it's just NuLab spin, and they are now backtracking.

All is not rosy in the economic garden. This government talks nothing but manure but at the same time spays weedkiller on the healthy growth.

Nicely said Nick - this is now a blog!

On the subject of the 'hopelessly optimistic' PBR figures, we are all dying to know HOW MUCH extra the government will need to borrow per extra month of recession? The original figures seemed pretty big, so if we are still in recession come the end of the year, how big will the actual figures been.


Also perhaps - why can the government never get their figures even remotely near reality?

I'm afraid that much as most people have suspected this just goes to prove that Labour ministers don't have a real clue as to what's going on.

I agree, Mr Robinson. Brown's lot can't be allowed to have their cake and eat it, they already get away with far too much manipulation with their endless empty announcements which too often the BBC slavishly carries. About time a BBC editor questioned the wisdom of swallowing such PR hype or challenged the nonsense.

One example of lazy or indulgent journalism was the reported improvement in education results. Yeh, right|, half the nation leave school unable to read, write and add up. Some improvement. What was the BBC journo on, Labour Kool Aid? He should have headlined the story with Labour failure and millions squandered. I wonder why he didn't.

Nick,

No problem with "Green Shoots" story, but why haven't you also covered the MPs expenses story?

Surely, Parliament excempting themselves from part of the FOI Act + backtracking on a specific pledge i.e. to publish individual MP's expenses with receipts and in doing so, defying the courts, is worthy of a few words.

Perhaps you could let us know (via your contacts) as to whether any of three main political parties are going to whip their MP's into voting against this travesty. And if not, why not!!! You might also suggest to your new best friend Mr. M that it would be good for the PM's image (what's left of it) if he at least ensured that all members of his cabinet (including himself) voted against. Ditto Cameron and the Shadow cabinet...

Agreed, this was certainly a story and you, Nick Robinson, should receive a gold star for highlighting how out-of-touch your average government minister is.

For example, Digby Jones talking about his government job as if it involved cleaning toilets without rubber gloves yesterday. I suppose, as DG of the CBI, he would have been used to giving Gordon Brown orders rather than taking them.

He also suggested that hardworking civil servants should be sacked, however, didn't mention his big business board director mates who have failed us and cost us.

Thank you for jumping on Dame Shriti's comments as she hides out in the house of Lords along with now many other government ministers so doesn't have to explain herself to parliament.

Nick, what about John McDonnell's protest against the third runway? You must remember, it was yesterday and he's been suspended for five days for highlighting further lack of parliamentary control.

I thought you would want to rubbish him like you did David Davis.

Nick,

I feel your summing up is incorrect; most people simply believe that the Westminister tit-for tat game of He Said, She Said is an irrelevance that only has any real interest to those in the Westminster village.

The fact that Gordon Brown has continually used the tactic of over emphasising the importance of particular statements or (deliberately?) mis-quoting his opponents does not make Baroness Vadera's comments anymore worthy of such coverage.

If you feel it worthwhile writing on the validity, or otherwise or soundbites, perhaps you write about the Government's obsession with potraying the Tories as the Do Nothing party - despite nicking a couple of their ideas over the past week?

I notice that Ms Vadera appears to have injured her finger. Is this Mandelson or Campbell literally hammering home the point about not repeating the 'green shoots' gaffe?

Nick

All I can say is hallelujah. Your response has everything I would wish for. It has picked up on things we have put in your blog and is a very fare response in my view.
Please continue to converse with us and don't go back to being forced to tow one side.
We are now in my view in full election mode. You can see this in the way the ridiculous Derek Draper / Labour Rapid Rebuttal Unit swarmed over your Greenshoot’s blog with new ID's trying to take the sting out of it.
Thanks also for acknowledging that the PBR figures are now a big issue as they cause gross underestimation of the Debt we will incur.

Once again keep up the balance so the electorate can get a true view of what is facing us not over played our underplay Blairing of reality.

Cheers

PortcullisGate

PS
Mandies new house?
Yatch?
We still need answers

Nick are you trying to bury bad news?


Also thought this might be a bit more interesting and perhaps even worth a comment from our man in parliment:


https://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=XTJL1h74tQU

Fair comment!

What it did bring into the open is yet another unknown person with a peerage who is advising Gordon Brown.

As we know nothing about her CV and qualifications for the role perhaps someone would care to enlighten us.

After all we should be demanding the best people for the job in such a crisis.

Nick,

I think the biggest problem with Shriti Vadera is that she doesn't seem to be very good at her job.

1. She generally seems to have mis-read the impact, severity and duration of of the Credit Crunch.
2. I understand that her hand was behind the GVN's response to the Northern Rock crisis
3. I am led to believe that Gordon also tasked her with the job of saving Woolworths....
4. The Green Shoots quote - which gave the Tories a free lunch!
5. If her civil service nickname is to be believed. Shriti Vadera's managerial style would also seem to leave a lot to be desired.

Now I'm sure that she must have some redeeming qualities and no doubt some successes under her belt. Otherwise how would she have come so far? So perhaps the Labour spin machine needs to be a bit more pro-active on her behalf? However, if this isn't the case, then I suggest Gordon get's rid - quickly!

BBC journo covers minor government minister in relation to minor story + complaints about nature of coverage = explanation of coverage.

BBC journo covers shadow chancellor in relation to minor story + complaints about coverage = no explanation of coverage.

What, please, is the difference? Is it important to be seen as a safe pair of hands for government announcements?

Thanks for the insight Nick.

Wasn't it Alastair Darling who said this would be the worst recession in sixty years? If those in the know (the government and their advisers) are giving us such very different accounts, how do we know who to believe?

A valid story, yes, but also over played and revelled in by the media.

The ministers political mistake was in repeating the poisonous phrase that had just been set as a trap for her. In the real world, the mistake was not actually explaining what green shoots she was seeing - specifically the bond market.

Thousands of job losses for sure, but some of those have been picked up by the supermarkets and thier ilk. Admittedly it would be a brave soul to use the "green shoots" analogy here. It would also be cruel to characterize them as no more than bonded labour, employed to feed the banality of "mass man". It is at least employment, but whose toil will be generating the money to feed those tills ?

In the final analysis, something has to be produced which is of value to someone else. Historically, this has been agriculture, manufacturing and more recently finance and information services. We are now being trounced in all these areas by nations which still have early 20th century labour rates and relations.

Which way next for Brittania ?

Nick

Your coverage of the story was quite legitimate and I for one cannot understand why you feel the need to defend yourself.

This government has mishandled and misunderstood this recession (slump?) since the word go.

The point I raised yesterday that they are in such a mess that Baroness Vadera was clutching at straws remains valid.

Only those on the payroll of the government would think your comments unreasonable. Given our situation why on earth should any of us listen to them?

When did Mandleson give you permission to print this non-story?

I quite strongly feel that part of the role of our elected politicans in these times of economic woe is to do their level best to talk up the prospects for UK plc.

I dont mean of course to deliberately misinform the public as to the problems but we need politicans with positive outlooks and solutions.

It is in this regard the Tory party are woefully inadequate. They have no answers of substance to the problems and whilst they are groping slowly towards a coherent set of answers. I for one am please HMG are doing their best to point towards the light at the end of the tunnel.

Lord alone knows the BBC and other media outlets are talking us down into an ever deepening pit of despair and hopelessness. Given how dependent our economic health is of market sentiment this is an irresponsible attitude that is damaging us as a nation.

Noone conquered the world with such a negative, "can't do" attitude.

ThIs is a big story, an important story ,and you were right to bring it to light.
If there is a recovery it would be nice to know about it.
We need good news desperately.
I think Varderas answered the question appropriately and was not bullish about it.
I can also understand the distance the government put themselves from it .Mandy was superb on telly.
And it was too big an issue to ignore.

The problem about green shoots is that it depends on your circumstances.
There ARE signs that recovery is underway , and SOME people are in a position to do well out of what has happened. And as these are going to be the driving forces of a new recovery, that is important.
For OTHERS the costs of the crunch are now only too obvious and there is more bad news on the way.....it does not really matter if there is a green shoot or not, their losses are big and it is not clear what is going to get them out of this.
And there is a "have you stopped beating your wife ?"element to asking a government minister a question about whether or not there is a recovery in sight.
Yes and they are seen as too optimistic and blase about others' downfalls.
No and the government is seen as doing nothing , its policies not working.

So maybe the best answer is always to say..."it is too early to say, and by the time we know for sure, we'll already know".

In the meantime, the sun is rising a couple of minutes earlier every day, even though it is still freezing out there.

Nick Robinson

As I said in my previous posts you are right on the button with this story. Indeed I heard a story today on the news which used the 'green shoots', with regard to Labour, this will be remembered. This women is completely out of touch and as John Redwood says its not just her spin stories which are out of touch, so is her business knowledge. Apparently she is costing the tax payer a fortune by her business decisions, if it shines a light on this, that would be good too.

I saw G. Brown on the news playing ping pong or rather attempting to, it seems its not just the economy hes no good at, he made an absolute fool of himself. Why do they do it?

Another thing I would be interested in, the dreadful Ed Balls is saying that education standards have dropped, hes blaming the schools. I find it incredible cheek coming from a man who can not even make sure exams are marked in time. Also who's been in power for eleven years, its more like the silly targets and dumming down by this Government.

You know theres a defining moment when a Government looses an election, yesterday I somehow believe was Labours. When J. McDonnall picked up the mace in Parliament, I think we all got a sense that democracy as we know it, has been killed by Labour.

I can't believe you're not covering the MP's expenses story.

These people can't be bothered to produce such trifling matters as their receipts (or give them to their secretaries to produce), and they are taking very quick steps through parliament to make sure that we never find out exactly what they claim for.

It's rotten to the core.

Oh, yeh, and what about John McDonnell highlighting the erosion of democracy in this country by the current government???????

The green shoots gaffe DOES say something worth paying attention to. It is a worthwhile story.

Labour are still trying to spin and are indeed out of touch.

Its like the Gordon "saved the world" gaffe. It reveals that they think the problems are resolved and this is no more than a large and uncomfortable economic hiccough.

They are in denial and have yet to accept any responsibility laying all blame at the door of the unconnected to them "global problem". Hence no changes to the regulatory regime.

The problem is they are riding relatively high in the polls. Once the reality bites in and it becomes clear that these problems will probably last years and not months they will crash hard in the polls.

Will things be so bad that they will call an election not because they believe that they can win but because confidence in them is so low they are no longer credible?

Nick

For left leaning posters to accuse you of making a story from words taken out of context amuses me no end.

One of the left's most oft quoted Mantras is Thatcher's: "There is no such thing as Society".

This is frequently used by the left to illustrate that Thatcher believed that helping others in trouble was not necessary.

When taken in context, she was saying that, if you cheated "society", you were not cheating an abstract concept, but the people who made up that society.

Sure it was not Watergate, but a gaffe by a senior minister is new nether-the-less. As you rightly say it illustrates this Government's bunker mentality towards the true extent of this recession.

fadedfred:

"Enquiries and requests to be registered as house buyers had increased for the last 3 months and were now running at twice the level of this time last year.... if that isnt evidence of at least one green shoot, I would like to know what is."

Just one problem Fadedfred, as you point out, a significant portion of these enquiries have come form first time buyers. So it will only be good news once they have secured a mortgage and in the current climate that won't be easy.

So whilst many may be interested in buying a house, when it comes to cruncing the numbers - a good portion of these prospective buyers will find out that they have been wasting their time.

BTW did you also notice that according to just about every survey going - the UK housing market is going to continue to fall throughout 2009. Most forecasts suggest a reduction of 10-15%. So not the best of times to get on the property ladder after all.

#2, quite right, what has Mr Robinson got to say about this particular cover-up?

It's not surprising that there's no confidence in this country.... after 12 years of New Labour lies no one believes in anything.

Wonder if Duke Digby would sack Gordon?

3. At 1:49pm on 16 Jan 2009, U9461192

I agree

Nice defence from Nick, but done at a time when we have news about MP's expenses, the next faltering steps of realisation towards their failed economic policy and the failures of the Government's Education department again

So nice defence, but stop covering over the other bad news which the government is slipping out whilst you are navel gazing.

Hopefully now that Nick has felt the rough edge of things he can survive the imminent purge (Report on stories, not become the story) and actually start to ask revealing questions that get answered.

"I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the future."
Gordon Brown, Chancellor of the Exchequer November 1997

If she thought that a recession doesn't necessarily mean redundancies/closures, then she's even more deluded than brown and most definitely should not be advising anyone on business.

That's just another example of how totally ignorant she is.

Like the entire labour front bench (including Brown), she's simply out of her depth and should be pushing shopping trolleys about in car parks for tescos rather than having a job with any responsibility whatsoever.

Get them out now; have an election; they're all so obviously massively negligent we need to get rid of them before they destroy what little is left of the economy.

As you'd expect from a professional journalist, Nick explains the all important context of the original 'green shoots' blog, which was a day of bad economic news.

What seems to have taken everybody by surprise, particularly anybody who swallowed Browns rather foolish remarks about an end to (Tory) boom-and-bust, is the rapidity of this downturn.

Rather than Browns implied economic stability, we are witnessing instead unprecedented volatility, which threatens businesses, particularly banking institutions, of almost any size.

Furthermore, as many can see, it will definately get worse before it gets better, as some pretty big names in business flounder and in some cases sink completely.

Hopefully though, out of the chaos will emerge an English people who are much more savvy about their politics.

It really is too important to leave completely up to professional politicians.

We English people must find a way which provides more immediate feedback and direction to these politicians and does not get 'lost' in a bureaucracy.

A vote cast once every four or five years is a completely inadequate mechanism in this age of almost permanently-wired connectivity.

It's still not a serious story.

It's about someone falling over a planned media trip wire and journalists saying ha ha.

Her actual words were more or less what any normally prudent person would say in response to that particular question.

What she certainly wasn't doing was claiming a premature victory over recession, like poor old Vamp in 1991.

We all agree that what important people say and mean should be reported without fear or favour - but what journalists choose to imply by reference to now arcane contexts? Only if the remits to educate and inform are ignored in favour of the one about entertainment.

another attempt (and a more polite one....)

The question of whether this government was downplaying the prospect of the recession before it happened and then being over-optimistic about the likelihood and timescale of recovery is an important one.

Is there anyone, anywhere, that seriously considers the above to still be a question???

I thought these comments were only read by bloggers. Well done for reading and responding to them.

However, I think CockedDice hit the nail on the head

"...most people simply believe that the Westminister tit-for tat game of He Said, She Said is an irrelevance that only has any real interest to those in the Westminster village."

There are so many big issues and stories that should be ringing out from the News pages. You only have to read this blog to find them.

If you link Milburn's new role of social mobility czar with the recent news that grammar schools are outperforming independent schools, you get the question: why aren't we creating more grammar schools? They were the great driving force for social mobilty from the 1940s to the 1970s, and many MPs were the beneficiaries.

It's time to outgrow the outdated, obsessive hatred of the 11+, and devise a modernised version of the tripartite system which keeps open, for all pupils, the options of academic, technical or vocational routes to individual career choices.

Don't pin your hopes on city academies or the new diploma courses. Neither will prove to be satisfactory - but it might take another 10 or 20 years for it to sink in.

Well one thing is for certain Nick we will never see any Brown shoots!

Gordon Brown's skills and training drive is a dog's breakfast.

Looks like Duff Gordon has defaulted to his usual 'Midas in reverse gear'.

Why is Ed Miliband looking so smug and nodding agreement with Hoon the Goon, yesterday (don't look to the BBC to find it look on Youtube) when only a couple of Months ago he agreed to reduce the UK carbon emmissions changing it from 60% to 80% by 2050, no doubt by the use of magic and dylithium crystals.

Does he feel that a few off set tree plantings may compensate for an addition 125,000 flights.

Or maybe the Gravy Train doesn't top at Heathrow.

Quite right. And what she said does fly in the face of what we can see out here on the street.

It is noticeable that there is a dearth of cars and shoppers about. Our local shops are feeling the pinch and Waitrose, yes even Waitrose, seem to be low on stock (cash flow) and trying hard to attract with offers.

I was in Marks and Spencer in London Colney (a big flagship Marks near Elstree and Borehamwood) and its food store was bereft of customers. They again have the Dine in for £10 to attract the bees round the honeypot, although I have to say one can be resourceful and make a meal for £2 sans wine by buying basic good food.

Slimey Schoolboy journalism

At Its best.!




Wouldn’t it be funny if there really were some green shoots?


And we look back at the Gaff


And see it was the start of the recovery.

I’m not saying that is the case.



But it Would be Very very very Funny if it turned out to be the case!



Keep up the Tomfoolery and continue to prey on the inexperienced.


Ho ho ho ho ho

#25

I dont mean of course to deliberately misinform the public as to the problems

Why change the habit of a lifetime? That's what Labour have been doing for the past 10 years.

Yes, it was a legitimate story.

But I would have liked Lady V's comments to have always been broadcast in the context of the question that was actually asked of her. It was by your old mate John Suchet, from ITN wasn't it ?

If the actual question is being broadcast as well as the answer, I can form my own view on the comments rather than have the BBC tell me they were disgraceful amid all the job losses...

The other criticism is that the fuller piece of the Lady V interview that was shown on News24 just before 6pm, had a very different feel to the bits that were selectively shown and re-sequenced on later bulletins....

As I say, I'm generally supportive of the BBC, but it went a bit wrong on this occasion, in the enthusiasm to report a scandal instead of reporting the news...

Get in trouble, Nick? Mandelson tell you to get back to the keyborad and apologise?

Why don't you grow a backbone and tell him you're independent? Or meant to be might be more appropriate.

Nick,

It is no doubt true that the Baroness made a mistake, which was rapidly picked up by people looking for silly ministerial slips.

I'd question whether it should have been the "top pick" for your blog.

That - on a day when Hoon announced the Heathrow expansion - and when Harman tried to slip in the attempt to limit FOI disclosures of MPs' expenses...

Maybe you just wanted to throw a bone that would keep the dogs howling away from those more critical events?

#25 - Our 'economic health' is dependant on our ability to run an economy. It is in this regard the Labour Party have proved themselves to be woefully inadequate.

Still no news on Damien Grieve and the inquiries?

Wonder when that will get buried when it comes clear that the police over reacted and abused power?

I can think of good and bad reasons why the media have jumped on this (which I still think they have). 1) Because she is an enormously powerful figure in the Brown administration who has enjoyed the shadows, and a bit more scrutiny of her role may well be in the public interest. 2) She has habitually ignored (i.e. snubbed) media attention and this is payback.

Maybe it's a bit of both.

Either way, she is reputedly either a meanie who doesn't listen or a tough but sensible operator who can get things done. Or maybe both :-)

You'd have to say, Nick, with everything else that's going on, this is a strange topic for a blog, albeit a bit of interaction is always welcome. Ex-generals denouncing Trident (only GBP20bn at stake after all), Tory threats to reverse the Heathrow decision (estimated cost GBP30bn, in 2007) and plans for a 'Bad Bank' (GBP100Bn?) are the top three stories on the politics pages, to say nothing of the Heathrow decision itself and MPs expenses slipping under the radar.

Surely one, if not all of these deserve greater scrutiny than a junior minister no-one knows making comments no-one really cares about?

Could it be that someone, somewhere is trying to regain the initiative on the news agenda?

Nick

This story like so many others these days reflects a general dumbing down of political stories. It's all process or reduced to the level of 'celebrity politics'. Peolpe who say daft things get lots of coverage, exaggeration is rewarded. Sensible analysis or reasonable comment is boring. Why don't you put on roller skates and a silly wig and complete the 'process' you love so much.

Nick

I cannot understand why you felt the need to justify or explain this story but I am assuming that your decision to do so was triggered by more than remarks from a couple of contributors to your blog. You have been the subject of much more credible adverse comment in the past without feeling the need to explain.

The story was manifestly legitimate and the reporting of it was factual and perfectly fair.
Can anybody really believe that the fact that words uttered by a Government minister might have been ill-judged or hapless makes it illegitimate to report them ? Surely not reporting them would be more worthy of criticism
?
Go on - tell us who or what really rattled your cage.

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

I think there is also an issue about how many 'ministers' GB has created ,ennobled and then presumably paid or remunerated from the public purse. Don't they have anyone elected as an MP who could do these jobs? How many of these back door punters are there?What does all this cost??

Still a non-story, and now you look even more defensive as you realise you have fallen into another one of those pointless media circle jerks about trivia when there is actual serious news to report - as you yourself point out, ironically.

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

The RRU seems to be strangely quiet at the moment...

Confused by Nick's rather damning comments?

shellingout @ 28

I can well believe that Nick is not covering the MP's expenses story.

Because it is non-news.

Everybody surely knows by now that they are troughing it bigtime but more fool us for allowing that via our disinterest in politics.

We need to be informed of the things we don't know, but despite things like FOI, 'they' still somehow manage to keep their secrets.

By the way, in my opinion, there isn't a 'real-world' and another world.

It is more a case of many parallel worlds.

For example, professional politicians mostly inhabit their very own little world.

The 'rich' has another world all of their own.

So do working people, the poor, the dispossessed, the retired and so on.

This is, I hope, a more realistic way of looking at the situation than just coming out with tired old clichés like 'the real world'.

CrookedDice

"...most people simply believe that the Westminister tit-for tat game of He Said, She Said is an irrelevance that only has any real interest to those in the Westminster village."


................................................................

The tit-for-tat game is merely for our benefit, and not for those in Westminster.

I expect politicians (from all sides) will enjoy a brandy and a havana cigar in the Commons bar together while they all have a good laugh about the shenanigans of the day.

#38

Her actual words were more or less what any normally prudent person would say in response to that particular question.

What she certainly wasn't doing was claiming a premature victory over recession, like poor old Vamp in 1991.

As Nick's follow-up reveals she is so incompetent that in March of last year she didn't even realise a recession was nailed on. That's aside from the previous decade of blithely running massive budget deficits and accepting praise from the economically dysphasic front-bench for presiding over the biggest build up of national and private debt in history.

Yeah! What could possibly go wrong!

They hug their pillows at night and wish to God they were merely incompetent.

This government is to economics what Eddie the Eagle is to pole-vaulting.

I still think there is a tone of desperate justification in your response Nick.

And no wonder. You journalists love a whiff of this kind of 'scandal', but most people recognise it as entirely superficial.

This is why we end up with such duff politicians. They have to be the kinds of people that are happy obsessing over how they come across to the media. Great at saying nothing in a million different ways.

Rather than intellectual heavyweights that might make the odd gaffe in the spotlight but are honest and good at their job.

You said yourself Nick that 'being the consummate "backroom girl" that she is and not a frontline politician she did not spot the trap.'

Why should she? I'd rather her head was buried in the economy than media trap-spotting. You Guys are Not The Story.

Its fun though (you must admit) watching all these Zanu-NuLabour functionaries trying to sound like they know what their doing, as they flounder and posture while the economic depression juggernaut bears down on them. Hehe.

Even Lordy Mandy now has fear in his eyes after his meetings. He knows the game is up. This is now becoming a repeat of Sunny Jim's government in the 70s.

As they say in the market, the real question is, at what point do we reach 'capitulation' then we can clear-out and start again.

BTW, all credit to you Nick for responding to posts. Most wouldn't

Obviously the government will try to play down bad news. On the other hand I don't accept Nicks defence.

The only defence is that political commentators like to make mischief. Demonstrating at length that someone on the inside doesn't have a political insiders knowledge is their speciality.

Even if the victim is employed for their business skills.

There will be viewers who are interested in this speciality although they probably decreased after several similar gloating interviews by the end of Newsnight.

@9 Kinglone
"
Also perhaps - why can the government never get their figures even remotely near reality?"

Its obvious really Brown thinks that 5 x 52 = 275

As I pointed out yesterday this is an error factor of 5.4%

By this assumption if you multiply the 15 quid error by the number of families you get a 400million error in the budget.

do this for every tax that Brown has meddled with and you arrive at a grand total of about 1 trillion quid

onwardho @26 said..

"The problem about green shoots is that it depends on your circumstances.
There ARE signs that recovery is underway "

Perhaps you could elaborate on those signs?

Please don't even try to mention the Supermarkets plans for more stores/more staff.People have to eat regardless of the economic situation..and perhaps are electing to eat more at home ,rather than going out,due to cost.

So what real signs can you see of a recovery under way?

#3 U9461192

Has it spot on.

I con't care too much about this being covered or not - its only a few words by someone that noone outside westminster had ever heard of before. Whats one 'wasted' blog entry (if it was indeed wasted).

How about following up on the REAL meat of the news?

The labour government are so out of touch, out of control, and living in their un-accountable la-la land, that even their back benchers are frustrated to the point of direct action (grabbing the mace).

Given that - how the hell do you think the general public in this country feel about them????

This really was a non story. The plain simple fact of the matter is that we have allowed ourselves to be talked in to this down turn, yes we would have had one anyway but if we'd have all stopped over hyping it it would not have been so bad. Every one I know has started saving, not a bad thing, but if nobody spend then it just worse.

therefore, maybe it's time to talk up our economy and then just may we could start on the road back up. Peolpe should stop moaning and be more positive.

Nick

I think you have returned in 2009 with a pretty good record

a gaff is a gaff and should be reported

Also your blog refering to Digby was also on the money. Although I did put the story into an entry within Green shoots 1
Do I get a finders fee ;-)

Of course GREEN SHOOTS should carry a GOVERNMENT HEALTH WARNING .....

The Tories are ALLERGIC to GOOD NEWS !

61 johnconstable

Don't remember coming out with a cliche like 'the real world'. I don't know who you were referring to but it wasn't me.

Really the green shoots story is a non-entity, compared to Mr Brown’s business expert saying that this recession would have no redundancies or closures. WHAT!?! Sorry this woman is meant to be an expert and she didn’t realise that people would be made redundant and businesses would close? Really? Where did she get her expertise from? And Gordon made her a baroness? Crickey, I’m sorry Derrick but I am meant o respect our PM, when he chooses people like this to advise him?

Nick -

This just shows that the media are more interested in finding some new scandal or hot story to report rather than real news.

If there were important stories about job losses that day why weren't you commenting on the political implications of them, rather than whether or not is was wrong of some minister no-one's heard of to say the two words 'green shoots'?

Dear Nick "Chemical Ali" - pretending you have been besieged by comments and had to justify making news out of the "green shoots" debacle - if you read the comments in yesterday's blog there are very few taking that line. As we said yesterday, you used the headline to dedicate half your column to the Tory comment made in 1992.

Nice try.

66. At 3:27pm on 16 Jan 2009, CaptainJuJu wrote:


BTW, all credit to you Nick for responding to posts. Most wouldn't


Your not wrong, head over to www.labourlist.org.

Talk about a slaughter, and not a response in sight.

Nick,

I'm beginning to believe you are putting a New Year Resolution into effect! Good post.

Without trying to make too much of the 'green shoots' comment, here in God's Waiting Room unemployment was 40% higher in Nov 2008 than 12 months prior to that. That looks suspiciously like 'business hibernation' to me.

And the High Street in God's Waiting Room, which is, appropriately, Terminus Road, is looking pretty grim with too many empty retail units.

And for those who don't get it, the Waiting Room is Eastbourne.

#64

"Rather than intellectual heavyweights that might make the odd gaffe in the spotlight but are honest and good at their job."

Anyone particular in mind? They haven't "saved the world" recently by any chance?

So not only is the video of John McDonnell removed, but so are any comments.

This country and the BBC in particular are relishing their descent into authoritarianism it seems.

In the days of new media, when people can tell each other the news, the BBC needs to be very careful it doesn't make itself irrelevant.

If I went to the supermarket and bought a dozen eggs, and then I take them back the next day saying "but I thought these were quail's eggs; it didn't say "not quail's eggs" on the box, it just said eggs"...

...would that mean that tesco's are at fault, or that I'm simply a mindless idiot with no understanding of what eggs are?

"what made this crunch different from those of 10 or 20 years ago was that they had come with redundancies and closures" !!! eh? what kind of recession doesn't have redundancies/closures? What world are these people living in and why does the chief adviser on business matters to the PM not understand any maths/economics/business at all?

I fail to see why Nick should apologise for the previous topic being a "non-story" - it was highly relevant when before/during a depression the chief business adviser to the PM is constantly saying things that either make no logical sense or which are totally untrue.

Is it just me or does she look very smug in the pic in the article?

61. At 3:20pm on 16 Jan 2009, JohnConstable wrote:
shellingout @ 28

I can well believe that Nick is not covering the MP's expenses story.

Because it is non-news



Surely the government moving to alter an Act of parliment soley for the purpose of hiding how they spend our money on themselves is much more of a news item than the one above.

Surely the light of publicity is what get people interested in the topic or more importantly the Hypocrisy.



And surely an MP stealing the speakers mace is worth a word or 2

Dont you think?

Nah, people were right the first time round.

This was a non story

The only reason Mandleson and others reacted later was because the former chairman of the young Conservatives had overblown the story in the first place.

If it had been left as it was, a casual, not very interesting remark, then nothing else would have been said - which would have been perfectly fine.

A story is a good story because an editor/journalist/publishes decides it is to fit their own agenda - not because it is actually of public interest. which this one most definitely isn't.

Out of touch?

Brown said today about the 2012 olympics "We are ahead of schedule - 3,000 people have already been employed, 11,000 next year and in total about 30,000 people will have worked here by 2012," he said.

"It is a huge employment generator and job creator for the future."


If he thinks 30,000 over three years is huge what is he going to do when he has 3 million unemployed?

Out of touch?
"The UK's nuclear deterrent should be scrapped, according to a group of retired senior military officers. "

and yet Brown wants to press ahead in spending the money

Nick needs to take a break.

Yes Vadera represents the government, but she was entitled to say what she said surely.

Nick should stop OVER-READING into people's words. She was not parroting Lamont, was she, so the hapless link is really overdone.

Lamont's speech was a dogmatic public address to a conference in which he referred to "the green shoots of economic spring" as part of a long argument that the UK was coming out of a recession. He liked using metaphors in his rhetoric. Gordon Brown was entitled to his opinions in the 1990s. Surely Vadera is also entitled to her own opinions and to express them with certain sensitivity. She did it on this occasion.

I don't approve of the BBC Political Editor's love-in with Alistair Stewart or ITV on this occasion. It's not in the interests of BBC public service.

The situation which occurred was so benign: Alistair asked Vadera, in the last 15 or so seconds of a metaphor-question laden ITV lunchtime news interview:


"Final and briefest thought possible -you're a former banker and businessperson yourself and now a Minister, when will we see the green shoots of recovery?"


Vadera clearly recognised the economic downturn and uncertainties such as job losses when she replied back to the question. She said:


“Well, it’s a very uncertain world right now globally but, I wouldn’t want to be the one to predict it. I’m seeing a few green shoots but it’s a little bit too early to say exactly how they’ll grow”

This was a careful answer trying to instil some confidence for people watching, but not giving any forecast of what exactly will happen. She was expressing her opinion, sensitively, but saying it's premature to say what will happen. It's the Government's job to instil people with confidence.

Nick took two words out of a full and sensitive answer to a question and tried to suggest there was ill practice in her answer by linking her with Lamont. Yet she was closing an interview in a light, midday news programme, and using the interviewer's terms when answering the question.

Just been chatting to some of the bods in the City who came up with some interesting ideas on where the recession might be heading:

1). Following the bail out of AIB the Irish Government requires new funds from a bond issue. If these fail to take off the country effectively becomes bankrupt and needs bailing out.

2). The EU would be strongly against Ireland being bailed out by the IMF (who have limited funds anyway) and would like to see an EU solution if possible for political reasons.

3). The only EU countries with sufficient funds for such a bail-out would be France and Germany but this would be a real stretch - ideally, and politically, they would like the UK to be part of the solution.

4). This would entail the UK joining the Euro on an 'emergency' basis meaning that the UK Government can argue that there is no time to hold a referendum on the issue and will push through joining the Euro as 'extraordinary measures for extraordinary times.'

Sound far fetched? Well, plenty of mileage in this for the current Government.

First, the UK joins the Euro without the 'need' for a referendum due to the 'extraordinary times we face.' Second, France and Germany's need for the UK would allow the UK to negotiate from a strong position on joining the Euro, for example, dealing with CAP etc. Third, and perhaps the clincher, this would totally throw the Conservatives into disarray who would be torn apart by in-fighting and likely implode over the issue.

End result - join the Euro on favourable terms with no need for a referendum, Tories torn apart over the issue - five more years for Labour!

#62 Shellingout

I think that those who see politics as a point scoring game are largely the politicans themselves and journalists who would rather report on slip ups by minor ministers than comment on the larger issues of the day.

I feel most people would rather the airtime given to such stories was spent properly scrutinising the stories behind the soundbites.

5. At 1:52pm on 16 Jan 2009, fadedfred wrote:
Isnt it a bugger when your victim is proved right. After hearing your jokey comments about Ms Vadera on Today, I set out on my rounds tuned to Radio 5 Live. On and after 10.00 am Victoria Derbyshire and the 5 Live News kept repeating a news release from the Royal Institiution of Chartered Surveyors (The estate agents trade union) which said that enquiries and requests to be registered as house buyers had increased for the last 3 months and were now running at twice the level of this time last year. Most seemed to be first time buyers hoping to enter the market.

===

I have just returned from our local estate agent. Their sales are curently 50% of target. The problem is that would-be first time buyers cannot get mortgages, because of a lack of funds and because they do not have the necessary deposit now demanded.

It's all very well going in and registering an interest, but that does't mean you will actually be able to buy a property.

"Sales volumes are currently about 60% lower than a year ago while prices, according to the latest Halifax survey, fell by 16% in the course of last year.

And the number of new mortgages approved for house buying in November was 67% lower than a year ago, according to the Bank of England's latest figures.

As such they suggest that sales will fall further in the coming months."


BTW I have registered my interest in a Bugatti Veyron, but I don't think I will actually be buying one!

PS Just seen this:

"Honda has announced that it plans to stop production at its plant in Swindon for the months of April and May, because of a collapse in global sales.

The carmaker had already announced in November the plant would be shut during February and March.

This represents the longest continuous halt in production at any UK car plant."

Not many green shoots in Swindon then, or have Honda got it wrong as well?

71. At 3:39pm on 16 Jan 2009, Stevie_me_me_me wrote:
This really was a non story. The plain simple fact of the matter is that we have allowed ourselves to be talked in to this down turn, yes we would have had one anyway but if we'd have all stopped over hyping it it would not have been so bad. Every one I know has started saving, not a bad thing, but if nobody spend then it just worse.

===

Get out there and buy a new Honda then, Stevie, your country needs you!

Sorry Nick but you can't use the fact that she and Mandelson did media interviews about the misplaced remark to justify the original media storm - they were only doing so because of the media storm. A case of the Westminster village eating itself methinks...

Out of touch?
Labour state that Heathrow needs another runway because Paris, Frankfurt and Amsterdam all have four runways

This is not quite true
Paris
Charles de gaulle 2 operational and a second airport with 2 although only one operational at a time as the other is for a diferent wind direction

Frankfurt
3 runways 2 main and one for a change of wind direction

Amsterdam
Schipol 4 runways 2 main and 2 for two seperate wind directions

Of these only Paris has additional airports nearby

London has 5 airports
Luton 1 runway, Stansted 1 runway with a second being planned, Gatwick 1 runway, London city airport 1 runway and Heathrow 2 runways

So London already has 6 runways operational at the same time that is the same as Paris Frankfurt and Amsterdam added together!

It is a complete fabrication that business will go elsewhere if Heathrow doesnt get another runway we already have more capacity with stansted almost certain to get another runway.

Boris has put forward probably the best solution putting an airport to the east in the estuary area couple this with a link into the high speed rail links and we would have people flying into there and not cramming more into a tiny space in the built up area of west London

#86 - he will classify them as something else so they don't count.

Can anyone out there tell me what qualifications the dear Baroness has to be:
a) Business Minister?
b) A 'Baroness'?

Seems like our Irish friends are doing the common sense thing and reducing public sector wages to reduce their defecit.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4241720/Ireland-plans-drastic-cuts-to-prevent-debt-crisis.html

It's the first thing you would expect a sensible government to do.

Can't imagine that Gordon would risk doing this for the UK and alienating his voters. Especially with talk of an election in the air!

Name checks for those who support the government minister! Word up to Nick my fellow baldy!

I would agree it is a gaffe and her apologising and the Prince of Darkness smiling about it just prove what a bad situation we really are in. Brown made his political career from bashing the Tories, driving such a force into the party that they have taken 10 years and 3 leaders to recover. Slogan upon slogan about how bad they were, much hay made for speeches such as Lamont's and others.

Now the boot is on the other foot it is non-news. I'm curious but if a minister makes a gaffe, and people are suffering directly contradicting her, it is slightly more than a gaffe, but more an embarrassment. This will haunt the government in months to come - let's return to it in say April when there are still no green shoots appearing. The US is still in the midst of this, and we are 6 months behind them economically!

73. At 3:46pm on 16 Jan 2009, onward-ho wrote:
Of course GREEN SHOOTS should carry a GOVERNMENT HEALTH WARNING .....

The Tories are ALLERGIC to GOOD NEWS !

===

"Citigroup to split as losses grow"

" 'Brutal' outlook for carmakers"

" Four-month shutdown for Honda UK"

" UK car sales fall to 12-year-low"

" Toyota shuts plants for 11 days"

" Intel profits drop 90%"

"High Street hit by downturn"

"Honda slashes jobs and production"

" Sales slide at Currys and Argos"

" Grattan to shed over 1,000 staff"

" Barclays cuts another 2,100 jobs"

" UK economy downturn 'frightening'"

" Mortgage lending still falling"

" House sales 'continuing to fall'"

" House prices 'fell 15.9% in 2008'"

" Mortgage rationing gets tougher"

===

All from the BBC website today.

Not much good news there, onward-ho!

Oh and any comment on the MP who decided he was absolutely outraged on the state of our democracy over Heathrow so he grabbed the mace and was banned for 5 days from Westminster?
Surely this is worth a blog.
Another right of parliament ridden roughshod over by Brown!