Darling's big gamble

I feel like I just watched a desperate poker player decide that as the blinds are too big he might as well go all-in on a 2-7 off-suit.

With my money and my kids futures.

Hey, let's all gamble with several billion pounds. While we're at it, why not put £10 billion on the 2.30 at Doncaster? It's only the nation's money that's all. Tell you what, the crown jewels are worth a bob or two - let's pawn them for £5 billion (they're only part of Britain's heritage after all). Finally, sell the people! That's it, kill everyone and sell off the body parts - that'll work.

Absolutely astonishing - I'd be hung up by the you-know-whats by the missus if I gambled as much as £30, yet this govt is risking to ruin the nation on a punt. This is appalling. Even if you're a core Labour voter - surely you must be able to see the madness and desperation in this.

I cannot believe that the economy will grow as forecast.

Even if the credit crunch is sorted out, too many people will be scared to borrow again

And that is what was responsible for most of the 'growth' in the British Economy - especially in the last few years.

This is truly a gamble and I see nothing that encourages me to think it will work.

I know some of it will work by the law of averages but we are facing the biggest economic crisis in sixty years - not my words - and this is just a feeble response.

Where is the determination to turn things around, to set new visions and goals? No sunlit uplands for the British, I fear.

I am sorry but this government has run out of steam, run out of ideas and now it has run out of money.

It is reduced to flashing its credit card at the bookies.

It is a gamble he has to take, and one the Tories would have taken if in power. They are just playing politics.

I can guarantee that the economy would have been in exactly the same position now who ever had been in power.

That the global mess would have happened in exactly the same way.

George Osborne's posturing at the dispatch box today was that of a spoilt school bully. I refuse to vote for anyone, Tory, Labour or Liberal who is so arrogant and vicious.

It is the Torys' city friends that have been building this situation since the early eighties when they were told to go forth and do as they liked, and Jim Slater was their idol.

But the true lie falls to both Parties as they believe they can actually do something about it.

The genie is out of the bottle has been for decades. It is just sad that we will pick up the tab.

win or lose we all pay for a long long time

This is just tinkering so much for the promised help....

Fantastic all out troubles will be over by next Summer.

Nice one Alistair youre a star



All hail the Android Emperor

How incredible.
One minute he is abolishing the 10% "to simplyfy the tax system" now he is adding
a 45% rate.

For heavens sake wasn't this the perfect chance to announce a fundamental change to a truly progressive tax system (a la France?) It has to be crazy that one pound is not taxed and the next can be charged at 20%. It would enable us to start to symplyfy the whole system for the 21st century.

What am I missing?

I can't see what other real choice he had. Opting to cross his arms and say "there's nothing we can do" would have been met with disastrous consequences. As with everything these days, we want results now and never prepared to wait.

Remind me some of the reason of the Credit crunch. Oh, yes. People spending beyond their means. hmm...

Indeed they are the parameters of the bet and to succed all three need to come to pass. The odds are very very poor.

This is all about shoring up core support to try to turn a whitewash at the next election into a crashing defeat and leaving a huge problem behind for the incoming probably conservative government.

Having spent the contents of the piggy bank he had to sell the freehold, he has now taken a second mortgage out on it safe in knowledge he is going bankrupt and will never have to pay it back.

Low politics of the very worst kind - he should be ashamed of himself.

I wonder if the borrowing of 118 billion (aargh) includes the off balance sheet items, which will probably rise if there's more spent on railways, housing, hospitals etc. What does everyone think?

So..

15bn a year fiscal stimulus.

Employer's and employee's paying 40bn more a year.

How is taxing jobs going to make this recession shorter?

How is taxing the very lifeblood of the economy going to keep people paying taxes and growing the economy.

It won't.

The VAT cut doesn't apply to

Food,
Domestic energy
Petrol/diesel
Alcohol
Tobacco..

I've just found out thanks to the NI changes and fiscal drag on the income tax threshold I'm 30 quid a month worse off.

So I have spent 1200 pounds in the shops a month to be quits.

I won't, I'll be spending nothing. I'm battening down the hatches for worse to come.

It's a simple choice.

Vote for more of our good money wasted on Labour's pet projects (ID Cards, Children's database) and their voters, or vote for someone else who will govern ALL of Britain.

Er...hang on. We will all have to pay it back even in the best of circumstances. This will cost us £100 billion easily. The housing market is on its' knees, the city is bust, we are not going to have some miracle in any quarter in 2009, 2010 or ever. At the recovery time I hope that we are able to tap the wealthy to request as nicely as possible that they pay a bit more, but the loopholes still remain.

It seems Alistair is a betting man - he's betting his job that the public are so gullible they'll fall for this sham budget and believe that the debt black hole we're in is because the government wishes to rekindle the economy they've thouroughly drenched.

We'll see how good his cards are when they call the snap election next year.

Darling predicts that we will not be in total recovery until 2015. That takes care of the entire first term of any new Government. Guess who may have to carry the can? Disgraceful!

Nick,

notice that commentators on Radio 5 are going for the conservative MPs for baying when Darling made some of his announcements.

I am not at all surprised that they were either, I mean the gall of the two of them Darling Brown. We are in a better position than most, I mean, you couldn't make it up.

As for Brown sat on the front bench grinning like a cheshire cat. He will never learn will he. Serious man for serious times, you've got to laugh.

In the meantime a British citizen still lies dead in Pakistan, killed by an American remotely controlled Drone. Meantime the de Menezes inquest continues. Meanwhile Gordon still didn't ackowledge the death of the soldiers last week, nor did he understand about Baby P.

At least he was not picking his nose during the Darling speech. However, what he failed to understand is the fact that he is unelected as Prime Minister, he doesn't understand the real problem. We do not live in a representative democracy. We are ruled by a despot.

Finally, you have to laugh because this was not a budget, it was a Pre-Budget report, and so there will not even be a vote for the Tories to vote against. So, all the nonsense about whether the conservatives would vote for or against is well, nonsense.

By the way Nick, do you STILL have to have George Osbourne's holiday in Corfu link shown on your blog - it is so passee.

The Next Election.

Whenever it is, the truth is both parties have the same economic scenario.

If taxes have to rise under Labour they probably will under the Tories too because the scale of public service cuts would be vast if not and couldn't be wished away with the oldest con in the book "cut waste".

Hundreds of thousands of redundancies, massive upfront severence payments and massive revenue costs of benefit payments.

The Tory "Final Solution" all over again.

It's not a gamble though is it because Darling must know deep down that it wont be him that has to pick up the tab in a few years time. He can't really lose unless by some unforeseen circumstance Gordon Brown is returned for a fourth term.

Not so much a gamble as a last desperate throw of the dice. " Drowning man clutching at straw " springs to mind. The whole budget smells of Gordon Brown, sneaky , untruthful, full of meaningless rhetoric and I suspect, totally ineffective as the answer to the problems Brown got the country into. Do they honestly think that the tiny amounts ( on a personal basis ) being handed out will have any affect on the wider economy. Already rumour is rife that they already may be having difficulty raising the cash they intend to borrow on anything like sustainable terms. The hole we're in may just have got bigger. This was a budget all about preparing the way for a June election, with more giveaway in April and the bad news about tax rises already mentioned therefore not required to be mentioned again, and hopefully forgotten about by the punters. The rise in the stock market was more about the US bailing out their biggest bank than Darling's non event budget statement.

Can I make a useful suggestion to the Chancellor. If he wants to know how to pay for the tax cuts he has announced then he need look no further than Public Sector Pensions. Brown had absolutely no scrupples about raiding the pensions of people working in the private sector so why shouldn't the Labour government do the same to public sector pensions.

I just find this so depressing, the current financial crisis has occurred because of irresponsible borrowing and economies fuelled by unsustainable consumerism and unsustainable house prices – and what is the proposed solution? More of the same! Has Darling learnt nothing? – surely this will lead to an even worse boom bust disaster a few years further along with an economy grappling with a crippling debt – but I assume Darling believes it won’t be his problem then – no it will be ours and our children’s ...

Nick.. you have made a typing error.

Presumably you mean the "eye wateringly large half a trillion additional pounds of borrowing he unveiled today"

In any case, if cassius is right we won't have to wait and see because inflation will take care of it:


https://cassiuswrites.blogspot.com/2008/11/we-may-not-have-to-wait-for-darlings.html

Okay he's bet 20 billion pounds.

How do we bet that he's got it wrong because that's an absolute certainty!

Definitely best summed up by Sir Richard Mottram when Martin Sixsmith resigned.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Mottram

This is a disaster for our country. To saddle every tax payer with another £3000.00 of debt is ludicrous.

There is no way this unfunded tax cutting fiscal stimulus will work. Brown & Darling can dress it up anyway they like, but they may as well roll dice.

The G20 countries in Washington agreed ONLY countries with solid surplus' should attempt this exercise. France and Germany are not going down this route.

Every tax payer will suffer massively. Brown remains in denial as he watches impotently the disintegration of the economy. He has ruined our pensions, ruined our savings and now ruined our economy.

Nick

Usually, in the case of a bet, it is clear whether or not a winner or loser has been backed. Not in this game.

Who will be the judge in terms of whether or not the gamble succeeded ? No matter what happens, Brown will say, "It would have been worse, but for the action we took."

Impossible to prove, impossible to disprove.

Did I hear correctly on Nick's report on the main 6 pm BBC news?

Did I hear him say that if the Chancellor's big punt with our money pays off in the short term then he (Nick) was looking forward to Labour winning a fourth election?

If I did mishear then apologies.

Or was it simply left-wing right-wing balance with Peston the Knowledge on the programme?

Is anybody modding this to approve some of these posts??

Also notice the tax rise for business on fuel. They are taking the VAT off (therefore claimable) but adding it in duty (not claimable)

With one hand he giveth and the other he taketh away!

Gordon just bought a drink at the last chance saloon.

If it comes off (which I doubt), he will hail himself as the country's saviour and we'll never hear the end of it.

If he loses, well - what has he got to lose?
The Conservatives will pick up the poisoned chalice in 2010 and they will have to increase taxes to pay it all back. Enter Labour again in 2014 under the guise of high taxation to "get the country back on it's feet!"

God help the lot of us!

If the Public Debt is heading for a Trillion (or more) then I assume this is the official borrowings figure?

What is the accumulating size of the PFI debt currently residing somewhere off-shore?

It would be nice to know how the country will also pay for that.

Silly me - we'll borrow it!

#5

I beg to differ. The last tory govt left the economy in an extremely healthy state, which this Labour govt has abused and squandered. Name the last Labour govt which left the economy in a healthy state? Go on, name it. You'll be going back a long, long time. I appreciate that, for a Labour supporter, this must be a hard pill to swallow, but in the last 11 years your beloved party has absolutely bust this country for at least 2 decades. I say 'bust', but there's a more appropriate word to use which wouldn't get past the moderators.

Have to say the 'fiscal stimulus' element doesn't seem very stimulating. There is a lot of giving with one hand and taking with the other. Also, converting VAT to fuel duty tax will hit the transport sector because they can't reclaim fuel duty, but they can reclaim VAT.

I'm extremely disappointed in the other side of the equation. This could never just be about throwing money about (which hasn't been done very successfully), but also had to be about reining in public spending. GBP5bn of 'efficiency' savings hardly scratches the surface, when we know from bitter experience that efficient is not a description that even the most rabid labour apologist could direct at this government.

Most importantly, and worryingly, and I suspect what will condemn the currency over the next few weeks/months, is that as per usual, labour has taken the most optimistic possibly projections, tweaked them upwards and then rounded them up again for good measure when arriving at their figures. It will not take long for the markets to see through these and realise that they are simply not sustainable.

The idea that negative growth will only last for the first two quarters of next year is risible. But it does pretty much confirm that 6 June will be the day for GE, because if they wait till 2010, and the economy is still in recession, it will be clear to everyone that their figures are a complete and utter fiction.

How about suggesting that our MP's have a review and cut on their expenses? That should save us a few hundred thousand at least!

This is a joke.

The economy is not going to grow as predicted.


Scorched Earth policy sounds like such a meaningless phrase given the announcements Labour made today. It is far, far worse than that.


No wonder Gordon Brown looked so ill and embarrassed on the front bench today. In his heart he knows he has wrecked the country.


Social mobility anyone?


Well yes- we are going to be very Socially Mobile. Just not in the direction Labour hoped.


The lesson is. Never, ever, ever vote in a Labour government again.


If somehow Labour do get re-elected one day - then immediately diversify all your assets into gold and run for the hills and dig a bunker.

Can the government tell me if my customers standing orders will still be paid in december now the amounts are wrong? Can anyone tell me how I get new payment instructions set up in 4 days to avoid going into a cash flow black hole in December? Can anyone tell me how we make sure all our customers software is changed to use to the 15% rate in 4 days? Can anyone tell me the benefit of having to cancel all my useful projects this week to deal with the effects of this ridiculous stunt. In fact can anyone now tell me why I should bother running a business at all? Can anyone tell my why an UNELECTED prime minister can saddle us with debt like this for years? ELECTION NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IF ANYONE AGREES LET IT BE KNOWN AND FAST BEFORE WE ALL END UP IN MASSIVE DEBT FOR YEARS AND YEARS!!!

What is worse - these borrowing and debt figures will be the false figures that don't take into account PFI or Public Sector Pensions debt.

So the figures are made to look more rosy since they not only exclude total debt but are also based on overly positive economic growth forecasts.


By the way - anyone notice the Fiscal Stimulus? I didn't see one.


Thanks Labour.

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

The Sun's headline was wrong at the time, but so apt for now:

'Will the last one leaving Britain turn the lights out?'

If we can even afford them . . .

NB 38

Brown is such a loser I wouldn't give him a pound to buy me a lottery ticket.

Guess What! He's just gambled away squillions of our money on a non runner.

32# Peaslaker

Easy to your question.

The Blair/Brown Government 1997/01.

The Blair/Brown Government 2001/05


The very reason they got re-elected at the end of these governments was the "Economy Stupid"

The odds of Labour winning the next election have just gone from 2/1 to 2.45/1

So when you say ''If Mr Darling wins his bet the economy will be boosted'' do we assume the opposite?

I think it was a great statement in doing absolutely nothing and as such the economy will run its course with no interference as it should be done.

The only gamble is whether the headline giveaways will be sufficient to con the electorate and allow Gordon Brown to call an election next year.

We had just such giveaways before each of the last two general elections.

This is the same. A small handout followed by huge tax increases.

If we re-elect this government we have only ourselves to blame. Even the bible told us we must save in the good years to have something for the bad. Gordon Brown should have read about Moses before spending even more than was earned in the good years such that we already had a huge deficit going in to the recession. This is why the UK is the worst prepared major economy for a recession.

It used to be the custom that leaking details of a budget was a resigning matter. Remember the Chancellor Hugh Dalton in 1947 - he made a remark to a journalist on his way into the House to deliver his budget and was later forced to resign.

These days, it's all spin and leaks!

Announcing in advance that VAT is to be lowered will no doubt cause some people to put off large purchases until next week.

Brown knows he will lose the next election so he is deliberately wrecking the economy with reckless borrowing.

Callaghan and Healey brought this country to its knees in 1979 by sheer incompetence. Brown is destroying our chances of recovery as an act of wilful vandalism, to leave as big a mess as possible for the next government. He is like a spoilt child who says if he can't have his way, he wants his ball back!

Brown is effectively borrowing money from us, then lending it back to us with 'temporary' tax cuts. It's time these people were shown the door.

I would like the name of Darling's and Brown 's Optician - so that I can buy a nice pair of VAT-reduced rose-tinted spectacles.

Then I'm off to the pub to have a pint of whatever those two clowns are drinking - because they could not have been sober when they cooked up this half-baked mees and tried to call it a plan.

Also, sadly I am of an age when I may never see this wretched debt paid off. Thanks guys!!

Lol - I advise everyone to take a look at the pre-budget report quotes (from political figures not the public)

Surprisingly enough, nearly all the commentators (and we're not just talking the tories here, also CBI, IFS, CoC) find quite a few faults mixed in there

The unions meanwhile regard it as a 100% success, showing just who this government serves:

"The report gives Britain a reason to be optimistic this Christmas and beyond. This is a welcome warm-up exercise after 30 years of inaction and neo-liberal economics. Gordon Brown has thrown off the shackles of new Labour to reveal the real Labour."
Derek Simpson - Unite

Couldn't have said it better myself...sickening

What did you mean by, in response to Brown's PBR plans:

"If the public like them we'll all be happy, Labour will win a fourth term, if not it will be a Conservative Chancellor who will be putting out the bills"

I just can't believe the sanctimonious hypocrisy.

They have given the "higher paid" - code for big-bucks folk - a warning that there will be a tax increase in the near future. That allows them the time to work out, with their financial advisors and lawyers, how to shelter as much as possible, to reduce the actual amount of tax they will pay.

Darling and Brown say that, as their manifesto said they wouldn't increase personal taxes, it's only fair to give warning of their intentions.

Excuse me.

Where in the manifesto did it say that the poorest tier in society would have THEIR tax raised from 10p to 20p?

Did they get a warning that, after another election, they would have to pay more tax?

And be told that the NEXT manifesto would include that change?

Not at all. It just happened...

It was Gordon's way of shafting people. For their own good, no doubt. And, by trying to create a "pay-back", all sorts of stupid and expensive arrangements were put in place to attempt to "equalise" most - not all - people's real income. By making them dependent on state hand-outs.

That's the worst type of socialism. The "come to us", hand-out philosophy that created economic carnage in the USSR and China.

It's about time that all the rowlocks that appears on here about the nasty "Tory boys' friends" stuff is dumped.

How can it be reasonable for a Labour government to raise taxes on the poorest - without flagging it in a manifesto - but defer increased taxes on those who could more readily pay it?

God help us all.

Over many years, I've voted for all sorts of parties. Tory, Labour, Liberals or Independents - depending on the national or local conditions.

I have never, ever, come across such a bunch of stuffed up, self-regarding folk that now run this nation.

Possibly the worst hypocrisy is the Chancellor's talk about "efficiency savings". Whenever the Tories talk about it, New Labour ask "where will you cut front-line services". But now they brag about historical savings and promise more in the future.

IF they saved in the past few years, then why was it necessary to keep on raising tax levels?

IF they could do it in the future, then why are opposition parties wrong to say that cuts - efficiency savings - can't possibly work?

This administration plans to give MPs a really long break, very soon.

So just who will be around to disect the constant stream of legislation that pours out of Brussels?

Who will be ploughing their way through the huge increases in general and corporate legislation and regulation that strangles British business?

National debt... who cares?

It seems pretty obvious that Brown and Co have already decided that they can't win the next election, so a scorched earth approach will leave their successors with so many problems that normal service will not be possible for another decade.

Thank goodness that the majority of the present government will no longer be involved with managing an economy (except getting the turkey for their family Christmas. Or should that be Wintertide, or some other rubbish...?).

Gordon has been happy recently, because he found a way to blame others for the disgraceful waste of UK plc's resources.

We will have the pleasure of paying for his "quite suitable" pension. Shame that the people who pay for his pension have seen their own pension schemes going down the pan.

But, hey ho... You can only be a good Socialist nowadays if you've got a few dozen bottles of decent wine in the cellar.

How exactly can we tell if Darling's gamble pays off? There is no way of knowing what the future would have been without these measures.

Presumably the Government will just tell us that things are better than they would otherwise have been and expect us to believe it.

#41 Eatonrifle

I take your point but I fear you deliberately missed mine. What I meant was, when was the last time an outgoing Labour govt left the economy in a healthy state?

39 bluntjeremy

I think a lot of local councils are doing just that to the street lamps every evening, because they can't afford to run them.

Even though council tax has pretty much doubled over the last decade....

The problem with heavy government borrowing is of course its possible effect on the value of the pound. Germany, France and Italy all have larger outstanding public debts than the UK has. However they have the advantage of membership of the Eurozone.

The euro is backed by the combined weight of the economies of all the member countries, while the sterling area, on which the pound depends, consists essentially nowadays of only the UK.

I wonder if Gordon Brown now regrets blocking UK membership of the Eurozone. If the UK had joined, the extra borrowing required to reduce the effect of the recession would have been less risky.

Impressive speech. Ali D touched a lot of bases. Sounds like some might work. Pensioners will be glad for their extra fiver a week.

I'm also impressed that an attempt has been made to redress the imbalance that has grown between high earners and the proportionate tax they pay. We have after all seen some very high earners bring the western world economy to the brink of collapse. It is only fair they pay a bit more of the tax that is being used to rescue them from themselves.

This is otherwise classic Nu-Labour. The VAT cut is a window dressing, and a very expensive one at that - something for them to throw at the Tories "We cut VAT when you would sit back and do nothing". I would expect the effect of this cut on spending to be nil. We also had some very small handouts to low earners.

So we had costly window dressing and minor tax cutting. Classic.

He did give us the specter of increased NI.

We have tax increases planned for 2011. Have Labour learned nothing from this past year? The "10p tax fiasco" was planned for 12 months ahead, at a point in time when no-one could predict the state of the economy. It was an act of arrogance. Now we see the same thing, but now the plan is for a change over two years ahead.

Labour have been very bad at predicting what was going to happen (even by their own admission) and I doubt they have improved.

ALi D has had some good ideas about how to help the economy, and he's had some bad ones. Sadly, he does not know which is which.

Why do I keep remembering Auden?

"Every farthing of the cost,
All the dreadful cards foretell,
Shall be paid .."

50- Oh I can't give you the year but it was well before I was born (in fact before most here were born). Certainly Brown's reputation for prudence was largely based on the healthy economy he inherited in 1997. The funny thing is I discuss these matters with friends. Some are very clearly Labour voters and the sad thing is there is no reasoning with them when you point out just how much their government has messed up. You can explain that a large part of the crisis is Brown's work and through his failings and it doesn't register. You can argue that the ecomomy was in greatshape in1997, that there was a big surplus and Britain has Europe's largest pension fund. It won' t matter. I am not Tory or Lib Dem, I will vote on who I think is right for that time but I am staggered at the sheer stupidity of some people whose only argument is to dig Thatcher up. You think this is how the rest of Europe chose their governments? By looking back?
No. An obsession with the Thatcher years, and an obsession with who is a toff and who isn't is stagnating any progress we as a society have to make. Do I care about what the damage will be? Well in the short term yes. In the long term no as I will be moving abroad with my husband in a few years.
But this country is going to be very bad for a long time. Back to being the sick man of Europe. And this after again a Labour government. You had your 11 year party, now the bill has arrived and no one can pay. You can keep your biased BBC, your spin and lies and your PM that thinks he can get away by lying to us all.

One more thing. The USA kicked out a president that had brought the country to its knees financially. That courted the large spenders in the city and that started an illegal war. We were all rejoicing here. But will we kick out our own government who did all this and more?

Well I am not sure people are clever enough to understand the level of debt Brown has gotten us into.

50#Peaslaker

Well only slightly but you're not the first to peddle the idea that in 1997 Labour were bequethed a golden economic legacy.

On what measure?

Interest rates?
Inflation?
Employment?
Even Borrowing against GDP was onlt at the level of the UK up till 2007/8.

And if you're honest enough to admit it and many aren't there was no worldwide economic credit crunch fed reession during the last Tory administration was there?

I support, as a matter of principle, higher rates of tax on very high earners. Should be doing that anyway - but from a redistribution perspective rather than a pay back borrowing angle. Having said that, I think this whole package is a bit of a joke. It's just tinkering around on the margins of the problem (as per usual). Cutting VAT for one year by 2.5 pc will have ZILCHO impact. Why, for heaven's sake, don't they do something big if they're going to do something. Otherwise, don't bother. This recession is going to be very very severe - it's going to be epoch changing in ways we don't yet understand. Either do something big or do nothing - another 20 bill of borrowing, on top of what's already there, is trivial and a waste of everyone's time.

#36
I feel for you, man.

Ali D would not have considered such inconveniences. He would also not have considered why so many items are priced at the psychological levels of £0.99, £9.99, £99.99. It's easier to sell off something marked at the "half price" of £49.99 instead of its full price of £99.99. Mark something as "Now £97.58" and customers will be wondering what the hell is going on.

This is like the prelude to the 2005 election all over again.. Give the voters lots of goodies, if you win, withdraw them; if you lose, it s some-one elses problem. Forget Darling, it is the Prime Minister

#56 Eatonrifle

You still haven't answered the question, which seems to be a trait of Labour supporters (just listen to the PM at PMQs)!

The question was; when was the last outgoing Labour govt that left the economy in a healthy state? Asking me a question isn't the same as answering a question! It's a fair question too!

Terrifying.

Welcome to 2010: the new Middle Ages, where a pint of ale costs six eggs and a tankful of petrol costs a pig and three chickens.

Thanks Labour.

So the government is going to save an extra £5 billion in efficiency savings in 2010-11.

Or to put it another way, the government are wasting £5 billion in 2008-09 and they will be wasting the same £5 billion in 2009-10 before they finally get round to sorting this waste out in 2010-11.

Unbelievable!

Nick, In your television interview with Peston could I believe it that even you showed a little doubt as to weather the figures really add up. Yes, you use the word gamble, a last throw of the dice of a desperate goverment.

#21 could not agree more.

The death of Nu-Labour

An excellent deconstruction of Brown's lies

peas @ 60

well hang on, there's only been 2 outgoing labour governments in the last fifty odd years - also, governments tend to lose if the economy is going bad, don't they? - so, to be fair, I don't think you have much of a point

I completely support taxes being raised on the obscenely rich. I'm sure were the Tories in Number 10, we'd be seeing massive tax breaks for the rich and huge tax rises on the poor. Lucky for us, people with morals currently reside in Downing Street.

Peaslaker/Eatonrifle,

you both appear to be falling into the all Labour bad/all tory good and vice versa trap.

The answer to the original question is 97/01 Blair Brown by a wide variety of measures.

It was the first labour government ever to achieve the feat since the war (it couldn't have been worse after the war). It actually technically was better than the state when they received it from John Major.
It is the last term and a half that knackered it.

Brakes applied too late or not at all (in this case) = car crash (higher the speed more the damage - and we were moving fast)

re: 68, TheHandOfHistory

Lucky for us, people with morals currently reside in Downing Street.

LOL pull the other one! You mean those people who DOUBLED tax on the poorest?

With all this debt we are stacking up for ourselves in the near future can we still afford to host the Olympics in 2012? Perhaps we should offer the Olympic baton to the French, purely in the interests of good neighbourly relations. After all they were very keen to win the bid.

60#Peaslaker.

I'm sure you understand that a term such as "economic health" is both relative and subjective and not just limited to "outgoing" governments but all terms of Government.

Theres only been two outgoing Labour Govrnmernments in the last 58 years!! and it proves nothing .

Your premise is that ougoing Tory Government leaves the UK with a healthy economy? Based on 1997 presumeably? As stated in my previous post that is at least debateable.

The previous outgoing Tory, Ted Heath in 1974 left an economic disaster (three day weeks, high inflation, high borrowing, power cuts) that set the scene for the rest of the decade.

The Thatcher Government of 79-83 was hardly an economic success, remember that recession?

power_2_the_ppl

The people who doubled tax on the poorest were the Tories in the 80's and 90's - a party you support despite them being completely contradictory to your name, "power_2_the_ppl".

#57.

Sagamix

Welcome to our world.

Do you know what really kills me? You know, with the economy they inherited in 1997. The one that was starting to deliver surpluses and increased spending on 'infrastructure' and all that?

Do you know what really gets my goat?

I'll tell you.

It would have been easier to get it right.

They had to really go out of their way to screw it up so badly. Not just a little bit out of their way. Not even a two or three year mid-term brain-wobble out of the way. No. They had to go a full decade out of their way to screw things up so comprehensively.

It would have been easier to get it right.

That's what kills me.

65 and 66 Power-to-ppl

Both those links you posted say it all.



Thanks Labour.

Sorry Nick, but what a one-sided economically illiterate blog. What you don't ask of course is, what are the risks if we follow Tory policies and do nothing?

The risks are pretty plain, especially if other governments around the world are as idiotic as our current Opposition (fortunately Obama and his advisors are not idiots).

If we do nothing, it is almost certain that the world will go into the worst recession for eighty years, destroying vast swathes of productive capacity which will take years if ever to come back. Unemployment will rocket, living standards will fall, and social unrest and conflict are inevitable.

But then, hey, better to inflict this on the world than raising taxes on British Daily Mail readers. Pathetic narrow mindedness.

message 5 Old Boar: "I can guarantee that the economy would have been in exactly the same position now who ever had been in power."

eh? Do you know what guarantee means? Do you know what Ken Clarke's 'tight' fiscal policies were? Brown did the opposite as soon as he could.

Only your last sentence is true.

re: 73, The Hand Of History

It's the year 2008 dontcha know... Perhaps Rip Van Winkle would be a more appropriate username for you.

The Labour party doubled tax on the poorest... check it out here.

Justify that.

RE: artisticsocrates

Just so you understand - Darling did not increase the weekly state pension beyond what it was due to increase by anyway.

And to make matters worse for pensioners, their average inflation cost is c. twice the RPI so again in fact they will be worse off going into next year.

Nothing changes regardless of which party is in government - lots of rhetoric, no action.

Nick, I'll happily take the bet with you - against Darling's predictions that is!

What is so shocking is how a government who have shown themselves to be utterly incompetent and completely incapable of understanding why we are in this situation, is allowed to continue so recklessly and, when they fail, which they will, just walk away and put it down to bad luck.

The situation is farcical. Indeed, if the situation wasn't so serious, we could see this as a reworking of a comedy classic, Dad's Army - Brown as Captain Mainwaring and Darling as Sgt Wilson - well, as Private Fraser would say 'We're doomed, doomed!'.

novoludo wrote:
Sorry Nick, but what a one-sided economically illiterate blog. What you don't ask of course is, what are the risks if we follow Tory policies and do nothing?


From what I have seen the idea that the Tories wanted to do nothing seems to be a New Labour invention - the Tories have suggested ideas like suspension of corporation taxes and company NI to keep smaller companies afloat (and allow them to keep on staff that will otherwise be on the dole). They also suggested ideas to encourage companies to hire new staff. From what I have seen New Labour have actually used some of these ideas.

I don't think that the Tories have came out with the best ideas here - my opinion is that the Lib Dems have the right idea, sending money into the pockets of the low and middle earners is a very positive thing.
However, doing all we can to keep companies afloat is also sensible.

The New Labour ideas doesn't really do much in the short term (I suspect that many companies will consider the VAT cut to be extra profit) and the tax increases could potentially mean that anyone earning 30,000 or above would be worse off (that is based on a comment I read - I am sure once people have had a chance to check the numbers this will change) but even a government minister said that by 2011 anyone earning over £40,000 would be worse off - yes this is quite a lot but we are not talking "mega bucks".

#78,

I'm not going to check out your Tory propoganda links.

The economic recession we're in now is as a direct result of greedy Tory businessmen like Conrad Black.

#76

If we do nothing, it is almost certain that the world will go into the worst recession for eighty years, destroying vast swathes of productive capacity which will take years if ever to come back. Unemployment will rocket, living standards will fall, and social unrest and conflict are inevitable.

What productive capacity are you talking about? Our capacity to cold-call folk in their own homes and sell them another loan? Our capacity to inflate the value of a two bed ex-local authority flat by another 15% per year? Our capacity to remortgage and go and treat ourselves to a Porsche Cayenne and an all-inclusive holiday in Mauritius?

Even with spending at 8% of GDP your scenario is nailed-on.

The 'tough choice' we needed today was Darling standing up and saying he'd had a talk with the other main parties, there had been a consensus, we have been living outside our means and we'd learned our lesson. The borrowing stops here!

What we got was 500,000,000,000 pounds of planned borrowing from a government who not once in eleven years of trying, one budget per year, five years of annual projected borrowings per year, PLUS half-yearly pre-budget reports, one hundred individual borrowing projections - some as little as six months in advance - not ONCE surprised on the downside. Half a trillion pounds of projected borrowing. And a 100-0 record for being delusionally optimistic

We are so doomed.

Utter incompetence.

We will need to redefine incompetence.

Just as there was a proposal to quantify a unit of beauty as a 'Helena' after Helen of Troy - being the Unit of Beauty required to launch a thousand ships we will need a new unit of incompetence. I submit such a unit 'The Brown'. The level of incompetence required to destroy a nation, its currency and its entire international standing.

Oh, looked at the UK - they are sooooo Browned.

Oh, look at the England cricket team, they are soooo Brown.

Did you see that David Beckham miss that penalty? He was sooooo Brown.

If we do nothing, it is almost certain that the world will go into the worst recession for eighty years, destroying vast swathes of productive capacity which will take years if ever to come back. Unemployment will rocket, living standards will fall, and social unrest and conflict are inevitable.

But then, hey, better to inflict this on the world than raising taxes on British Daily Mail readers. Pathetic narrow mindedness.

I've seen heroin addicts refuse treatment for a fatal infection if they couldn't get their methadone in hospital.

When people are locked into failing ways they never listen: see arrogant big business and the consumer boom.

When the consequences of their decisions becomes clear they don't want to accept the medicine: see undermining the fiscal stimulus and job layoffs.

When the pain of treatment kicks in they blame someone else: see violence in hospitals from the disturbed and drunks.

When someone promises a cost free easy way out they get sucked back in to the problems that caused it: "Don't worry mate, you can share my needle."

Masters of the Universe and urban sophisticates like to pretend they're different or better but they're not.

It would be nice if this story had a happy ending but people procrastinate. They never want to hear the truth so voting for Tory lies is a cheap and easy way out.

The sad thing is people know this...

I just watched the BBC Six O'Clock news on iPlayer.



Things must be bad for Labour. The BBC reported the news almost straight and with little bias. (The way they did during the early days of Labour's Iraq war).


In the main discussion of the situation, I only noticed one bit of bias. The lack of bias was clearly a bit of a surprise.

Obviously - the report wasn't squeaky clean. At one point they liken Brown's bust to other recessions. They name Lamont as a Tory, but Denis Healey appears to belong to 'no party'.

I didn't notice any cobblers coming from Nick Robinson. Of course Robert 'son of Labour peer' Peston managed to conclude his piece that "the markets bounced back due to the Chancellors speach", rather than welcoming news on Citi Bank or Obama's economic team being announced.

As I say - things must be dire for Labour - if the BBC are largely broadcasting the facts. Who'd have thought it?!

6 O'Clock News

Well, the master has spoken.

68 TheHandOfHistory:

"I completely support taxes being raised on the obscenely rich. I'm sure were the Tories in Number 10, we'd be seeing massive tax breaks for the rich and huge tax rises on the poor. Lucky for us, people with morals currently reside in Downing Street."

Isn't it a pity that "people with morals" didn't bother to tax the "obscenely rich" when they were piling up their big bonuses over the last 5 - 10 years?

In fact, those "moral" guys were so busy getting so far up the orifices of business that they couldn't even think of raising taxes, at a time when money was sloshing around in tyhe City.

New Labour was committed to keeping business "on-side". Pity.

But, they (Blair allowed Brown to commit it and Brown forced Darling to see it through) raised the rate of tax on the poorest paid from 10p to 20p.

Do you really think THAT was "moral"?

The apparent cost of rectifying that assault is about GBP 2.5 - 3 Billion.

Tinkering with VAT could have a GBP 12Billion impact.

So why didn't these "moral" guys re-establish the 10p break and increase personal allowances?

That would help people. And the poorest people need money to spend on things to live.

As retailers chop prices to attract trade, it will be impossible to see whether the reduction in VAT has any real impact on the cost of life.

This is a politically naive pre-budget statement.

Hopefully the last from this administration...

82 TheHandofHistory


I agree with you. Thanks to the fiscal stimulus, I think that now is the time to buy this for the rest of my family as well.

I now know the reason that they chose "Labour" as the name for their political party.


What they mean is "Labour" - as in the phrase:

"Labour under a misapprehension"



It is now all clear. They have set out (and succeeded) to deceive from day 1.

From what I have seen the idea that the Tories wanted to do nothing seems to be a New Labour invention - the Tories have suggested ideas like suspension of corporation taxes and company NI to keep smaller companies afloat (and allow them to keep on staff that will otherwise be on the dole). They also suggested ideas to encourage companies to hire new staff. From what I have seen New Labour have actually used some of these ideas.

The Tories were just want to hand out tax freebies with no guarantee of delivery from business. Finance is just a surface thing. What matters is attitude and I see no great uptake there. The danger is business will just flinch at the challenge, bank the money, and cut jobs anyway. That's what they did during the Thatcher years and there's no reason to suppose they've changed.

By focusing on investment and job creation and retention people will be more likely to create a better and more agreeable outcome. British industry and society is a borderline basket case even after all the positive work Labour have done and falling back now is the last thing it needs. This is why being circumspect about tax freebies, and pressing forward with the Brown agenda and a forth Labour government is needed more than ever.

I haven't seen a peep from the Tories about raising R&D, a long-term attitude to finance, or fair wages. Not a peep, and these people are supposed to be the party of developing business opportunity and everyone's pal? At the first whiff of danger they shrivelled like a sheet of polythene exposed to the flame. Where's the vision? Where's the leadership? Where's the guts? I don't see it, probably, because the Tories don't have it in them. Paper tigers, the lot of 'em.

82 TheHandOfHistory wrote:

"The economic recession we're in now is as a direct result of greedy Tory businessmen like Conrad Black."

And presumably nasty, greedy businessmen like Lord Drayton, who spotted the opportunity to corner a market just before this government decided that it would commit to a particular product?

Oh, that can't be right, can it?

He's a Labour Minister...

Conrad Black is a Canadian. Pain in the a**e like Rupert Murdoch. But Blair flew to Oz to court Murdoch and his team before the 1997 election.

Being eager to make money is not a Tory preserve.

Just check out Tony Blair's GBP 12 Million over the last year...

You may say he's not representative of Labour. But he provided the face which allowed this adminsitration to come into power.

And 20+ ex-Labour ministers are now engaged with private companies (often involved with areas within which they had ministerial competence).

I don't like that at all.

I would be happy to vote for any party that didn't screw with the poorest part of the population, didn't assume that a moderate income was "rich", and didn't treat the "rich" as a very special breed who need handling with kid gloves.

This PRB is a disgrace.

#87 fairlyopenlytory,

Running a large country is a very difficult and complicated business. Mistakes happen. It's not easy to decide what bits of the pie to cut up.

86 Vagueofgodalming

Christ on a bike. Labour has clearly also been spinning a personal line for Krugman's own ears.


Labour will stop at nothing to push the lies will they?!

Will those who proclaim the answers come forward and say so?

Or does the dust of by-gone years block their ability to hear the truth.

Naive: the action to command the balanced approach or Naive: in the unaction of the completely deflated tories.

I'm comfortable in the knowledge that to do something is better than just to stand-by and watch.

Good will and Good grace are effective and the response to active means, will always over-power the weak and dare I say Naive non players.

As the snow falls, on the hill side, lift up your hearts and remember, its good to do something.

In fact, those "moral" guys were so busy getting so far up the orifices of business that they couldn't even think of raising taxes, at a time when money was sloshing around in tyhe City.

New Labour was committed to keeping business "on-side". Pity.

But, they (Blair allowed Brown to commit it and Brown forced Darling to see it through) raised the rate of tax on the poorest paid from 10p to 20p.

Do you really think THAT was "moral"?

People forget how big business fought change and how they screamed at the merest whiff that their house price rise would slow. They also forget how Labour has massively redistributed income to the poor via tax credits while the Tories still vehemently oppose a rise in the minimum wage.

If the Tories were so good why do they side with the CBI in opposing corporate governance law, and why don't the wealthy classes who hire accountants to take the strain helps out the poor with organising their tax credits? Perhaps, it's something to do with the Tories not wanting to dilute their power and privilege, eh?

I note, the record of George Osborne is still stuck on trying to undermine economic recovery and almost shrill with indignation that Alistair Darling remove his capacity for cheap and easy tax bribes. If Labour repackage their presentation so people are better educated about the realities and tune assistance so folks in need get their due he'll blow a circuit.

I remember being told by my mother about the formation of the NHS and how people where so pleased at being able to get treatment including, things like free glasses and dentistry. By focusing on economic opportunity and helping folks get their due Labour can draw an immovable line on Tory arrogance and greed. There is no going backwards, only forwards: life, not death.

#89,

HAHAHA... that's really hilarious! You should do stand up. -_-

Commentators keep referring to this package of measures as a "big gamble". Is it not the case that doing nothing would be an even bigger gamble and more expensive in the long run.
Another point-The record borrowing is compared with previous records-i.e. Healey, Lamont etc. However, I fear that these comparisions are based on nominal numbers and not adjusted for inflation. By doing so the media is unwittingly (or otherwise) engaging in uninformed scare mongering.
Finally, I am going to smash my TV if I hear once more a Tory politician repeat that they would not start from here. This is useless. The public know that-what they desperately want is a semblance of an alternative solution-only the Liberals seem to be addressing this need. Osbourne and Cameron are treating all this as a Junior common room debate. If they could only spend as much time listening to the pain and angiush of ordinary people as they do in coinning clever sound bites, our country's interests would be better served.

#85
jonathan_cook

You are to politcal bias what Mary Whitehouse was to swearing and other such nastiness........

Please get yourself a life.

Bill

I saw Billy Elliot at the theatre on Saturday night. It reminded me of why it is totally immoral to vote Tory.

84 Charles_E_Hardwidge wrote:

"Masters of the Universe and urban sophisticates like to pretend they're different or better but they're not.

It would be nice if this story had a happy ending but people procrastinate. They never want to hear the truth so voting for Tory lies is a cheap and easy way out.

The sad thing is people know this..."

The sad thing, dear Charles, is that the procrastinating population voted for Labour lies. Well, in truth, most of them didn't, but our peculiar system allowed this obnoxious, deceitful, government to be in place.

Far as I can see, there are just as many well-heeled super-rich ready to give support to Labour as to Tory - or other - party funds.

Whoever thought that a Labour government would snatch away a 10p tax-rate for the poorest?

Was that in the manifesto?

Was it necessary? No.

Could it have been stopped? Yes.

Why didn't Brown think twice before scrapping that concession to the poorest folk?

And why, after so much opposition from the nation and his own party, did he insist that it should be executed by Darling?

Making a minimal tax concession peremanent just doesn't fix the problem that HE created.

Masters of the Universe?

Do you mean the financial organisations that Brown decided should be treated with such delicacy that the over-sight body he created - the FSA - couldn't be bothered to check out why Northern Rock's operation was flawed?

Or bother to check whether the funds they claimed were "assets" were actually worthless bits of paper?

Come on.

This has been the worst bunch of socially suicidal idiots to have been in government during my voting lifetime.

"The world" got it wrong.

Not true.

The USA allowed stupid things to happen.

The UK government could have forced our institutions to explain why a bit of paper saying that "pretend value" was worth anything at all...

I'd offer you a cheque for GBP14BIllion.

Wouldn't you like to know whether it was backed by some real funds?

Sorry. Forgot. You're into computer games. So pretend stuff really does exist....

Well it must, if people can get divorced because a couple of atavars get too excited.

What a pity that this whole sorry bunch couldn't prove to be atavars.

At least, when we turn off the PC, they'd just disappear.