Crucial duel

Have a feeling that Labour are going to just squeeze the win ...

bbc blog

You might at least republish the comments previously made.

Otherwise I'll start thinking conspiracy!

There is a young leader called Cam
Who doesn't, in truth, give a damn
Ahead in the polls
Due to bashing the proles
He's now in a bit of a jam!

Brown crashed the economy and is now using his failure to beat up Scotland - "you need my billions to prop up your banks that I have ruined. You need me. You need me"


Scotland doesn't need Brown.

Here are the previous posts

# 1. At 6:17pm on 30 Oct 2008, power_to_the_ppl

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# 2. At 6:25pm on 30 Oct 2008, JohnConstable wrote:

Yes, the outcome will ripple beyond the border.

We use that word 'border' without thinking but of course, when you do think about it, then borders delineate countries.

Salmond and the SNP will get there eventually, thus freeing us English too.

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# 3. At 6:26pm on 30 Oct 2008, power_to_the_ppl wrote:

The first post on two consecutive blogs... oooh yeeaahh.

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# 4. At 6:29pm on 30 Oct 2008, JohnConstable wrote:

Glenrothes, Fife, gud for business, gud for life.

Some may fondly remember that one.

Scots with whom I was working with at the time in England were pretty scathing about the accent.

But then native Scots can spot a fraud very easily, quite unlike us hapless English.

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# 5. At 6:31pm on 30 Oct 2008, oldnat wrote:

The result is likely to be close, whoever gets to waste their time sitting on Westminster's back-benches - the cushiest job in the world is to be an MP from Scotland, since most of the issues raised with English MPs are the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament.

Since the Tories only interest is whether they come 3rd or 4th, this by-election will not affect the politics of most of you on this blog.

The contest is primarily between those who have hope for a better future (sometimes seen through very rose-tinted glasses) - the SNP : and those who peddle fear, gloom and try to persuade the voters of their inadequacy - Labour.

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# 6. At 6:32pm on 30 Oct 2008, pattymkirkwood wrote:

Labour are truly desperate if they think wheeling out Alex Ferguson will help them win votes in Fife!

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# 7. At 6:35pm on 30 Oct 2008, power_to_the_ppl wrote:

The coming Nu-Labour defeat
Is going to be reeeaaaalllllyyyy sweet,
Much to Gordon's chagrin
He'll pay for his sin,
We've had enough Labour deceit!

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# 8. At 6:40pm on 30 Oct 2008, Thomas_Porter wrote:

The people of Glenrothes should keep in mind who has brought Britain to her knees. Gordon Brown, the Labour Party have practically tore Britain apart and we are sinking into debt that they appear unable to control.

The Labour Party, along with Gordon Brown have received a bounce by appearing to lead the way out of the economic crises. Don't forget who put us there, also do not forget who will be paying for their mistakes in the generations to come.

I hope the Scottish National Party win but the outcome remains uncertain. I would be pleased for the Conservatives to win Glenrothes rather then Labour...

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# 9. At 6:48pm on 30 Oct 2008, CarrotsneedaQUANGO2 wrote:

Oldnat... Close? do you really think so?




Come on Glenrothes, show Mr Brown what you really

What most of us think of him.

Spoil his week.


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# 10. At 6:52pm on 30 Oct 2008, kaybraes wrote:

1,3,7 ??? My, my, what have you been saying?? You've been lying low Nick , scared you get dragged into the Ross/ Brand saga ? At least it generated more enthusiasm than parliament does on most days. Here in Scotland we're just thankful for Billy Connely's command of the obscene language. It comes out somehow better from him than from the other two. Anyway , a lot of hot air is swirling round Glenrothes; to put it in context, this is probably one of Labour's safest strongholds, if they lose, in spite of what they say, it will be a disaster for Brown.If they win with anything less than a substantial majority, it will be a disaster for Brown. So to put it mildly the SNP are in a can't lose situation. Whatever happens, Brown's days are numbered anyway, he and his eyebrowed familiar are flailing around like the proverbial drowning men looking for a straw to cling on to, and with each passing day are getting further and further out of their depth. It is not now a case of whether he loses the next election, but by how much.

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# 11. At 6:58pm on 30 Oct 2008, DispairingWonderer wrote:

oldnat, though I won't deny that the tories and lib dems have very little/no chance, you must admit, it is votes for them that could quite easily and dramatically tip the balance one way or the other. Every little detail is counting in this election.

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# 12. At 6:59pm on 30 Oct 2008, power_to_the_ppl wrote:

If I lived in Glenrothes I'd keep a bucket of water (or something else) by the door just in case Broon turned up to canvass.

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# 13. At 7:00pm on 30 Oct 2008, DisgustedDorothy wrote:

Well if Labour lose they certainly won't be able to fault the media .
We are suffering from the usual bias and misreporting or "mis speaking"if you prefer from the media and its pundits, we even have William Hill used as a method of polling the views and voting intentions in Glenrothes.
We have article upon article glowing with praise for the Labour Party , we have football managers throwing their weight behind the PM, Scottish in nationality English in team.
I rather hoped the furore over the two unfunny juvenile delinquents on Radio 2 might make the BBC consider its position in the wider sense, like the impartial bit in its contract.

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# 14. At 7:02pm on 30 Oct 2008, oldnat wrote:

#9 Carrots

You need to understand that Labour dominated Scotland for 50 years.

Part of their system was always to persuade Scots that they were "victims" unable to stand up for themselves, and always dependent on the protection of others.

We've made huge progress away from that mindset, but large numbers of people have spent all their adult lives thinking that way.

Some who dared to hope will have gone back to the old way of thinking due to the propaganda in the current financial crisis.

We'll see how many on Nov 6.

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# 15. At 7:04pm on 30 Oct 2008, power_to_the_ppl wrote:

re: 10, kaybraes

1,3,7 ??? My, my, what have you been saying??

The truth kaybraes! Only Brown's Broadcasting Corporation and their biased news-drones don't like it...

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# 16. At 7:04pm on 30 Oct 2008, Brownedov wrote:

#5 oldnat

Surprised you didn't mention Cameron's pitch that of course Scotland could be successful if independent but would do better still in a Tory-led UK - a subliminal message to vote anything but NuLab.

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# 17. At 7:08pm on 30 Oct 2008, jonathan_cook wrote:

Labour has taken people and votes for granted in places like Glenrothes for years and done little to help people.


It is time to give Labour the kicking it richly deserves.

Come on SNP!!


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# 18. At 7:14pm on 30 Oct 2008, jonathan_cook wrote:

5 Oldnat

Has Brown had a bounce in the polls in Scotland - following his supposed economic leadership of the world?


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# 19. At 7:20pm on 30 Oct 2008, the-real-truth

This comment is awaiting moderation. Explain

#1

I think the nature of the contest is such that the outcome is nigh unpredictable. That said, if Labour do win, it will certainly be squeezed unless they find yet another miracle.

Labour are refusing to try and save Scottish banking jobs. This fact and other right wing policies (ID cards, Trident, middle eastern wars, workfare, student fees) should make people think carefully before voting Labour.

#4

Well said!

It's Brown who needs scotland! What happens if it goes independant? A scottish prime minister in an english government?

Somehow i think not.

the scotts have always had a strong nationalist streak. labour no longer exists it has been replaced by neu labour who are infact rebel tories who wanted power under there own name.
if labour wins this upcoming by-election sadly it will only show how gullable some people are.
if the scotish people want more independence then voting for any english party is an error they will have to live with.
so the prime minister was there to inflict his pressence on the public it makes me wonder when he was last in his constituancy?
i only hope he has the decency to stay away from this area during elections.
in many respects scotland deserves its independence and when its ready i hope they achieve it.
and i can only hope voters of that by-election vote in droves showing westminster its no longer wanted.

@ 6

Yes, it looks like it's going to be very close - I'm going to predict a Labour win by about 1,200 votes. A victory for the SNP would be more exciting, of course, but in this case I think we are in for a disappointment.

THE TRUTH ABOUT SCOTLAND

Sir,

The article "Salmond Slapped down by Norway Minister" in the Daily Mail on 29 October contained several incorrect and misleading statements attributed to Norway's Foreign Minister, Jonas Gahr Støre.

Firstly, there is no "growing anger in Norway" over comparisons made between Scotland and Norway during the debate in the United Kingdom against the backdrop of the current global financial crisis.

Secondly, no accusations have been made by Mr Støre against Mr Salmond, as alleged in the article. In the interview, the Foreign Minister merely pointed out factual similarities and differences between the challenges presently faced by Scotland and Norway. Inferring from this that Mr Støre is of the view that Mr Salmond has in any way lied or mislead the public, is simply incorrect.

In short, the Norwegian Foreign Minister did not intend to criticise either side in this debate, which is a domestic political discussion. What he strongly emphasised in the interview with the Daily Mail and which, sadly, was simply omitted from the article, was his sincere appreciation of the warm ongoing relationship between Scotland and Norway.

Yours sincerely,
Bjarne Lindstrøm
Ambassador of Norway

original #18 jonathan_cook

I'd just posted a response when the techies screwed it up.

What I was saying was that "Brown bounce" s the wrong way to look at it up here.

We've only had one poll here since the financial crisis - Brownedov can give you the details.

However, during the summer when the English media were obsessing about Brown/Miliband/Cameron, Scots responses in the polls were much more pro Brown when "forced to choose" than in the English regions.

I think this might be because many SNP supporters would prefer "Brown to Home Counties types" as the lesser of 2 evils.

Oh Purleease. We don't want Gordon's head to get any bigger than it is now. He already thinks he's saved the world and he can save Glenrothes too. I pray he doesn't.

More Labour lies - they say the SNP run Council are charging people for alarms etc yet had the council remained Labour this charge would still have been imposed as it has in many other councils, Labour Liberal and SNP!

PS I wouldn't vote SNP on principle but if I lived in Glenrothes I would - just to help give McBroon a kicking!

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

"Now some in Labour are daring to believe that they can retain this seat. Gordon Brown is now seen as an asset. The near collapse of Scotland's two major banks has raised real doubts about the capacity of this country to go it alone. Though the economic crisis is the backdrop against which this contest is being fought there is little evidence yet of its effect on this constituency."

Is that the technical error your talking about? Don't remember that bit in the "incompletely published owing to a technical error" version.

Funny, a similar thing like that happened just the other day......

Labour, with over a 10,000 majority was expected to lose before GB's miraculous rescue of not only our economy, but also those of our european partners, leading the way for the rest of the world.

Who was in charge of our economy for the last decade again?

I sincerely hope the people of Glenrothes do not believe the labour spin that Scotland 'cannae go it alone' due to the banking crisis. Moreover, that they realise the handling of the economy has been dismal in the least, and that this highlights the need for fiscal autonomy.

The politics of fear and negativity can only last so long and will never prevail.

Just had to repost this.
#258 Charles_E_Hardwidge

CEH: "Okay, back to you Eyebrows-sensei."

I guess that means something to you, but has no resonance for (or should that be with) me.

Alistair Darling. C'mon, loosen up a bit."

Sorry Charles, I was never educated at the private and expensive Loretto School. Guess you have to be "given" a very expensive private education to be a real "Labour" leader nowadays.

Surely even you can see the irony in that!

As I understand it, Darling (bearded then) was a supporter of the International Marxist Group, the British section of the Trotskyist Fourth International.

Plus ca change...

CEH: "Labour couldn't take on the City or magic new business out of thin air, and the anti-regulation and anti-micromanagement brigade in here would have a field day if they had tried it."

Labour never tried to take on the City. Blair was all over them like a rash. (Needing a well-paid exit route, which he seems to have achieved...)

Brown thought he showed "working class " independence by turning up to key City functions without wearing a penguin suit. If it that was that important, why did he change his kit when he'd become PM?

Brown made regulation lighter. Thatcher introduced the "Big Bang". But there were regulations. Brown relaxed the regulations. And had plenty of time to readjust if he felt it appropriate. He didn't impose adequate rules. If you work in the City and have a bunch of new limitations, you wouldn't be happy. But maybe millions of voters would have learned to appreciate a bit of control.

CEH: "Governments can't magic new business."

Don't care what wings they come from, there's no evidence that any government can create new business.

What they can do is create an environment within which people with innovative ideas can get traction. I just haven't seen much evidence of that.

CEH: "I see this slowdown as overdue and an opportunity. People can sieze that or fall back on failed patterns."

This slowdown has arrived like an out of control train at the buffers.

It didn't need to happen. Poor - actually catestrophic - failure of regulation allowed this.

Disaster always offers an opportunity.

Just can't see how a government that presided over the UK disaster believes it can simply turn a page and assume that everybody will believe that "all that stuff was yesterday, but we're here for tomorrow".

I don't have a lot of faith in any political party.

But I'd be happy to exile those who led us this far to Elba.

I've said before that getting it wrong shouldn't be assumed to be a sacking offence.

Ignoring the facts that you got it wrong should allow you to find a cardboard box to doss in somewhere and contemplate the misery you've inflicted on others.

Welcome back Nick. I thought you were off investigating Lord Mandy's shenanigans. Oh well.

As for Glenrothes, I think it may have been decided in this evening's vote where Scottish Labour chose Westminster over Scottish interests, yet again. No doubt voters in Glenrothes took note.

#11 VincentMcdee

Can you give the source for the letter from the Ambassador?

The bust brought to Scotland by "An arc of stupidity":

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath - Gordon Brown

Edinburgh South West - Alistair Darling

Normanton - Ed Balls


Will these people help Scotland escape the bust?

RE Comment 4 from Jontahan_cook, Brown ruined the banks???? I dont think so. Greedy ( and sadly, mainly Scottish) bankers ruined the banks.

Bill McFadden

#15 pttp

Never mind, my #5 saved all the lost comments for posterity - including your fanous "This comment has been referred to the moderators"

:-)

Glenrothes is North of the boarder win or lose it'll make no difference to us, except give us earache one way or another this is just a by-election, we want a real one thats the one what counts.

It really would be interested to see what GB did if or when we dispatched him from Westminster, would he go running back to Scotland or stand to face the humiliation of being defeated at the first attempt, this guy never won an election as PM.

How many Labour seats are left in Scotland? One thing for sure I'm dreading the General election someday the debts will have to be paid back and with the declining industry and jobs taxes will surely have to rise - so much for relying on capitalism, housing and banks with a declining industry.

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

It seems a little perverse that Brown should campaign on the proposition that RBS and HBOS were failing, and the Scottish economy couldn't handle it, when total control over UK banking/finance houses was based in Westminster.

It's certainly surprising that Scot-based banks were so profligate in their financial affairs. I guess it's not just MPs or PMs who can have delusions of financial grandeur.

But rather odd that Brown seems to be saying, "look what a mess you've got yourselves into", when the same issue has affected banks across the UK. AND he keeps saying it's a global problem. So nothing he, the MSPs or anyone could have done about it.

For me, that's just wrong. The lack of proper regulation allowed companies to do some really stupid things.

THEY should have been aware and cautious.

WE could have expected a reasonable system of regulation to stop them just drifting into excesses.

I've no axe to grind about how the Scots vote.

It's as far away as Paris...

#22

North though Glenrothes may be, this by-election represents a massive change in thinking throughout Britain, should the SNP win. If Labour win, it just as importantly shows that Brown has clawed back enough respect to actually win something.

More sensationally, should the SNP win, the chance of an England independant of Scotland, if you want to see it that way, becomes manifold more likely.

It affects you very much.

re: 3, sagamix

There is a young leader called Cam
Who doesn't, in truth, give a damn
Ahead in the polls
Due to bashing the proles
He's now in a bit of a jam!

The reason that Cam is ahead
Is mostly 'cause Labour is dead:
Their tax is ill-gotten,
Their 'vision' is rotten,
We'd vote for a monkey instead!

And Labour's spying, and 42 days,
Have really weakened their case,
But I'll give Cam a go
'Cause at least that we know
That he'll get rid of that database!

re: 22, oldnat

Thanks!

21 Billmcfadden

Bill,

Take a look at this video - Brown is at fault for the bust. He could also have acted to stop the banks crash.

Brown could have saved the Scottish banks

#21.

Billmcfadden.

"RE Comment 4 from Jontahan_cook, Brown ruined the banks???? I dont think so. Greedy ( and sadly, mainly Scottish) bankers ruined the banks."

Hello there, where have you been the past 11 years? Gordon Brown created the regulation for which the banks were suppose to obay... Brown was the reason British Banks were able to takes the risks that they did and Brown was the reason Britain has to bail out the banks once they lost. If Brown was not so greedy or at least unable to receive the taxes those bankers generated from their risks would he have allowed the bankers to take those risks in the first place?

Austraila has incredibly tough regulation which their banks have to follow. Who's laughing now?

By the way could you please provide evidence to support your statement that the majority of greedy bankers were Scottish? It sounds like you are attempting to shift the blame to a nationality...

Nick

Saw you on BBC1 News escorting a frail old man around Glenrothes. Good to see you doing the Good Samaritan act/charity work. Dunno why it was on the TV news though. Anything to get out of the office I suppose.

What's going on? Shuffling the cards?

It'll be an ominous sign for the Tories and Englandshire if Labour wins the Glenrothes by-election; and I think they just might.

It'll teach the Tories a thing or two about creating some clear blue water between themselves and the Labour shambles. The Tories' preoccupation with trying to look like Labour-Lite whilst failing in its duty as Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is now coming home to roost. It's about time the Tories came up with an alternative to the Labour government and told us all about it. Until then, they can forget being voted into power. We all may as well stay with the devil we know; god, did I just say that?

And I was once a Tory voter!!

Here is a good question to ask Gordon on the Glenrothes campaign trail:

Can you add up Gordon?

7. At 7:47pm on 30 Oct 2008, sandPerran wrote:
Labour are refusing to try and save Scottish banking jobs. This fact and other right wing policies (ID cards, Trident, middle eastern wars, workfare, student fees) should make people think carefully before voting Labour.


As oldnat will testify, I sit neutral here, so do not feel I am trying to defend Labour here.

However, people are quick to say let's scrap this and that without thinking of the LONG term consequences.

ID cards/wars - I'm in agreement they need scrapped

Trident - no, partly since you cannot predict world status in 10 or 20 years, plus you need to replace the many jobs reliant on Trident.

Student fees - look at just how many people go into further education, research what the cost would be to the taxpayer (already hefty) and then ask what are the tangible benefits and the cost effectiveness.

I disagree that Labour are using the HBOS for political purposes. This is a conspiracy theory. And HBOS also has English jobs at stake. If you were not aware, the H stands for Halifax.

Back to topic - the SNP have more to lose by not winning the seat than Gordon Brown has to lose should the SNP be victorious.

Alex Salmond is a competent politician, but he made - in my opinion - a huge mistake by using other small countries as examples of how successful Scotland can be - until Iceland blew it.

Tories? Might actually do relatively well.

Lib Dems - no hope I'm afraid. I think voters in general are realising that a vote for them means splitting either a labour or tory vote, depending on your preference.

re: 33, moraymint

We all may as well stay with the devil we know; god, did I just say that?

Listen to yourself man! That's what they want you to think! What reason do Labour have to drop their rights-infringing schemes like ID cards if people just say what you said and vote for them anyway?

We must resist Nu-Stasi and their legislation-creep every step of the way! Be strong brother!

33 Moraymint


"We all may as well stay with the devil we know; god, did I just say that?"


No way!

Remember two things (of many):

1. Iraq

2. The smashed British economy.


If you have the opportunity to vote in Glenrothes - do not be taken in by recent headlines spun by Mandelson and Campbell.


Brown and Labour need to be removed from office.

Gordon Brown couldn't shake the Scottish dust from his heels fast enough when he headed south to forward his career and I have no doubt at all that when he gets tossed out of his current job with his own fat pension in tact having ruined the rest of us, he will be looking to Europe or Cape Cod to enhance his earnings not Fife. He signed up to devolution (only brought in to stymie the Nats) he has shown arrogance and scant respect for the Scottish Parliament which, under Alex Salmond has opened so many eyes to much more favourable opportunities for the Scottish people.

Some may give Gordon Brown credit for his handling of the current crisis but i'm not one of them. I hold him personally responsible for the mess we are now. And his hatred of the SNP is visceral to the point that I don't trust him to put Scotland's interests before his own in this crisis. His appalling stewardship which has wrecked the Uk economy for goodness knows how many years to come borders on the criminal.

#35

I disagree. Much of what you said was very much opinionated, there are two equally valid sides to most of those arguments and you have simply picked one.

The fact, in addition, that Alex Salmond can enact these, admittedly expensive, measures with the scottish population loving him more by the second for it is a testement to his more than mere "competence" as a politician.

As for HBOS, Gordon Brown is a fool if he ISN'T thinking of it as a political opportunity! If he backs down, it could result in another 10p tax thing anyway, so politics is therefore heavily influencing his decisions. He regains yet again a little more prestige by solving a problem on this scale, as I said, it would be insane not to think of it as such.

We shall see about the tories, Goldie hasn't been quite as vocal as some of her fellow leaders, but that may pay off...

Nick,

is Scotland a country, simple question, simple answer, of course it is.

Is America a country, another simple question, another simple answer, of course it is.

Now then, the British government tells us constantly that whoever is victorious in the American election is actually none of our business. We will do business and work together with whosever is elected.

So, what business is it of Gordon Brown, who is the unelected Prime Minister, who took over as a result of a coup, to get involved in the election of any foreign country.

Basically, he and his wife should have kept out of the whole business. Mind you he was the chancellor who paid for the war which was a war of agression against a sovereign nation state, where the President of the defeated country was eventually executed by hanging.

In the meantime America sends its Special Forces into Syria, America flies Drones into Pakistan and kills families, oh, and Turkey is able to take action against a sovereign democratic nation state, where our forces are stationed, to protect its interests. Oh, that's right it was Iraq again. As in America when it comes down to it, it is this awful war that will prove the undoing of labour. It's not the economy, it's the war and how will Brown explain the defeat of our forces in Afghanistan and Iraq. We've lost, plain and simple, all the money has been wasted, all the lives have been for nothing, and it was all done in our name.

That is why the Scottish people must throw this awful government out. You can do it, please. Oh, anybody seen any Russian oligarchs in yachts lately.

#2 oldnat
I've seen it happen once before on the NR threads, but then they posted two identically named threads.

#5 oldnat
Many thanks for the breakdown recovery services.

#12 oldnat
Fewer thanks for unauthorised offering of my psephological services. FWIW, the only recent poll is the last weekend's YouGov polls, see #116 et seq on Brian Taylor's Silencing the analysts thread. I repeat my main post below with references to the thread linked to.

My own take on Glenrothes is that voters are much more likely to play it in line with the SP plurality seats, where the changes since 2007 are Lab +13.03%, SNP +38.57%, LibDem -11.29%, Con -3.09%, Other +55.94%.

Applying that to the Glenrothes boundaries, and the 48% turnout which I've predicted before as the likely maximum, that would double the SNP's notional majority from 2007 to about 1,800.

OTOH, if the seat really is seen as make or break for the Government, it would be more likely to play in line with Westminster voting intention, in which case the changes since 2005 are Lab -2.50%, SNP +66.44%, Con +23.84%, LibDem -52.27%, Other -54.08%.

Applying that to Glenrothes, with the same 48% turnout, that would be enough for Labour to hang on to the seat by over 3,000 votes.

In both cases, if there is no substantial squeeze effect, the Tories and LibDems would save their deposits.

As well as squeeze effects, the above ignores all the other by-election factors which almost always punish an incumbent government, so I do think there's still all to play for. I'm also rather with Neil_Small147's #119 that Mandelson's return to the front pages will not be an unalloyed asset and sneckedagain's #123 that polling may have ended at the same time as any Brown "bounce".

Overall, I'm in agreement with oldnat's #118 that the SNP should be cautiously optimistic.

I'd also recommend a look at Guido's Glenrothes: Punters V Pundits, Round II.

#18 warblers
"As for Glenrothes, I think it may have been decided in this evening's vote where Scottish Labour chose Westminster over Scottish interests, yet again. No doubt voters in Glenrothes took note."

Spot on, and no doubt both the LibDems (it was their leader who tabled the motion) and the SNP will be doing their best to make sure they're aware of it as well as "Duff" Gordon's denial and Capt. Darling's dithering.

Nick,

there must be an inquiry, a public one at that, into what has been going on with respect to the Scottish banks which hit trouble, namely the Royal Bank of Scotland, and the Bank of Scotland. I know that they are part of larger groups but there is something not quite right. I smell rotten fish somewhere.

Funny how they have been baled out and there is all the media attention on them , just as a bye-election is being held. Is this not another example of Pork Barrel Politics.

I regard Gordon Brown as a one trick poney, but my main concern at the moment is the evidence being brought to the de Menezas inquest, I am becoming very concerned.

42 Brownedov

What vote is happening tonight?

I truly hope the people of Glenrothes aren't the fools that the government takes them for and they take this opportunity to give Gordon a good kicking.

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

Thank God I am old. I will soon quit this mortal coil, and it will go to hell without my help or intervention.

SNP ? Fools, all of you. Politically inept, financially corrupt, morally broken, socially unacceptable, lacking intelligence, needing attention from Weight-watches (r). Salmon, filleted, deboned, skinned, out of sell by date, finished.

I think as a neutral in this debate that it is fairly obvious the SNP are the party with the momentum in Scotland vs Labour. Despite Gordon Brown's supposed bounce due to the perception that he has waved the magic 'wad' over the financial crisis and bailed us out, he has in fact done nothing of the sort and has committed the country to another round of spiraling spend creating more debt. He blames the banks for over extending themselves in areas of lending or leverage, i would like to know why he has used the country the same way, he has allowed an extraordinary amount of household and government debt to be accumulated under the pretense that it is still less than our peer countries. So we are the 'keep up with the Jone's' fiscal policy followers. Didn't Keynes suggest that we should put money aside in the good years so we can survive the bad years, this recession is inevitable we had the opportunity to get through it by a responsible budgets in previous years, if Scottish Banks are in difficulty its no fault of the SNP.

#44 jonathan_cook

If Brownedov doesn't mind me taking the ball back .....

The vote took place earlier today in the Scottish Parliament concerning HBOS (the Scottish Parliament works less anti-social hours as it has fewer members making loadsa money in the courts and boardrooms than Westminster).

You can see how it works in Scottish politics (they really are different from yours) on Brian Taylor's blog - Strict Neutrality

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

18. warblers
"Welcome back Nick. I thought you were off investigating Lord Mandy's shenanigans. Oh well"

Hmm. I thought Nick might be composing his apology to Osborne - having pilloried him all last week for doing nothing wrong!

#4 and #7

Where as yes Gordon Brown is very very much responsible for some of the problems we face. I am affraid you can't pass the buck that HBOS made a number of very very serious errors in concern to its business.

And also, as a side from posts on the similar blog around HBOS on the Scottish political blog. The H in HBOS stands for Halifax. What about protecting English and Scottish Banking Jobs affected by this crisis happening to an English and Scottish bank?

For me it getting rediculous. I wonder if people care about the lives of workers and indeed customers of this institution or is it just another reason to have the whole England/Scotland rar rar rar debate which really is terribly dull in the modern age. Jobs and communities are going to be affected both sides of the border, it about time people started thinking about both, and not just attaching their colours to their own backyard flagpole.

But anyway, Mr Brown has his chance to get us out of this mess he made and to be honest, for me he not doing too bad.

That's it from me, and my wee campaign to put the H.. Back in HBOS..

#44 jonathan_cook
"What vote is happening tonight?"

A Holyrood motion re HBOS - see this website's MSPs warn against bank takeover.

Won by 61 (LibDems, SNP, etc.) to 40 (NuLan, Tory)

#47 jovialwhetherornot

"SNP ? Fools, all of you. Politically inept, financially corrupt, morally broken, socially unacceptable, lacking intelligence, needing attention from Weight-watches (r). Salmon, filleted, deboned, skinned, out of sell by date, finished."

Dear Readers,

'Don't often post here, however, felt compelled to make some contribution in these strangest of times....

Given the facts of: -
a) the resignation of the Controller of Radio 2;
b) the 12-week suspension of one of the BBC's 'biggest acts' (don't watch the show personally), and;
c) the departure of one of the station's stable of alternative comedians,
only one question remains in my mind: by what means can we possibly bring popular pressure to bear against the present most undemocratic of UK Governments ?

It would appear that more people feel more strongly about Russell Brand's excesses than the total of votes that will probably be cast in the forthcoming Glenrothes By-election !

So how does one register a complaint ?

A view often expressed around these parts (Fife) is that GB plc represents little but a politically misguided, totalitarian-tending waste of everyone's time & patience.

Please follow-up this post with 30,000+ complaints to some institution or other.... you know it's your duty.

Best Wishes.

#40 T A Griffin (TAG) wrote:

"Nick,

is Scotland a country, simple question, simple answer, of course it is.

Is America a country, another simple question, another simple answer, of course it is."

Sorry TAG, America is not a country. It's a continent.

The USA is a country within the North American continent. It has many states having varying legal systems, tied together within the framework of a central Bill of Rights.

Scotland is a country (like Wales and England) that lives within the UK structure.

The first head of the England/Wales and Scotland union was a Scot.

The Act of Union was partly driven because the Scots messed up their finances and a bit of slippery money from the English won their hearts...

I don't really care who wins a Westminster seat in Scotland. Whoever is elected will not be able to represent his/her electorate on key matters which they'll be allowed to vote on for the "non-Scottish" parts of the Union.

So, in a way, I'd prefer it to be someone who won't bother to come south and claim "second home allowances".

The US War of Independence had a snappy catch phrase. "No taxation without representation". Sounds like a good idea to me. If George III had a bit of sense, he'd have done a deal.

In our Union, I'd like "No representation without suffering the same taxation consequences as every other MP".

That would mean that Scot MPs wouldn't be able to vote for University fees for the English, while their constituents get free access (because MPs have absolutely no influence on such matters for their constituents).

The West Lothian question hasn't been answered - or even addressed - by the party who gave the Scots a degree of self-governance...

#47 jovialwhetherornot

It's obviously being so cheerful that keeps you going.

Many, perhaps most Scots have crticisms of him - I certainly do - but at least he's pro-Scotland, which is a lot more than you can say of any NuLab apparatchik from "Duff" Gordon down.

At least Cameron - doubtless properly educated by Aunty Annabel - has realised that dissing Scotland is no longer a winning strategy there.

Smart kid.

My #54 was referred.

I quoted the words of #47 jovialwhetherornot

and added the following - "An interesting way to describe a third of the Scottish electorate - and that, dear English readers, is why Labour will lose Scotland ."

A strange referral!

Just a little point that should be noted. HBOS is most certainly not a Scottish bank . It is a large English bank with a smallish Scottish arm. Halifax is by far rhe biggest bit of HBOS and the BOS died when Halifax swallowed it.
What we have had is a cosmetic appearance of a big building in Edinburgh with all real decision making in Yorkshire. What we should be striving for is letting Halifax (which carries the toxic debt)be swallowed by Lloyds and BOS be set free and re-established as a Scottish institution.

Brown /Darling are in a lose/lose situation on this one but it may take soemtime to pan out.

The media and the Scottish media in particular is disgracing itself in this by-election. It is determined to save Brown at Glenrothes.

Nick, you say:

Not long ago no one doubted the outcome. Labour was expected to lose to the SNP like they did a couple of weeks ago in Glasgow East.

What's going on Nick? Surely your sense of time can't be as skewed as your political judgment?

#58 power_to_the_ppl

Judging by the youth of "Duff" Gordon in the pic, perhaps that was young William Hague receiving the impetus to make his famous speech at the next Tory conference.

#62 pttp

Nick is a UK political correspondent. He seems to be quite good on their political issues, but he is woefully weak on the different Scottish system.

It's not just his lack of understanding of time (good point, I hadn't noticed his slip), but that only the more extreme SNP people thought Glenrothes would be easy.

Glasgow East and Glenrothes are very different constituencies, and only commentators from outside imagine that "Scottish" seats are necessarily similar.

In Glenrothes, the significant move for the SNP from being behind Labour to (marginally) ahead took place by 2007. In Glasgow, the shift didn't take place till 2008, and is not yet embedded.

The fascinating contest in Glenrothes is between a huge, energetic SNP machine flooding the constituency with determined workers and a pathetic Labour effort relying, as it did in Glasgow East, on workers imported from South of the border.

The difference this time is that the whole media is tring to give Glenrothes to Brown and we have huge media coverage of stunts from Labour like flying visits by GB's wife and carefull controlled cameos of Brown meeting carefully chosen Labour supporters for a few minutes.

I suspect the media is underestimating the intelligence of the Scottish electorate who are always very quick to realise when they are having their plonkers pulled.
Listrening to Nick Robinson on BBC news tonight indicated he has swallowed the spin as well.

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Something that may be a key issue in Glenrothes but hasn't been mentioned on this thread as yet is Local Income Tax.

The SNP Scottish Government want to use their devolved power to vary income tax by 3 pence in the GBP to scrap residential council tax. This is popular according to the opinion polls as most will pay less and supported with reservations and differences by the LibDems who want LIT for the UK - see their Axe the Tax. NuLab and the official Tories oppose it vehemently.

Many in Scotland wonder if the vehemence of the arch-unionists is because they're concerned that it would be both popular and successful, leading to their "core vote" in England clamouring for it to the dismay of their paymasters.

What do residents of England think?

#67 Brownedov

Judging by the postings on this thread, it seems there are few Brits left.

It is essentially an English blog. They have their own dynamic, and good luck to them.

I wonder if "British" Labour understand how irrelevant their belief system has become within their "United" Kingdom.

39. At 9:23pm on 30 Oct 2008, DispairingWonderer wrote:

The fact, in addition, that Alex Salmond can enact these, admittedly expensive, measures with the scottish population loving him more by the second for it is a testement to his more than mere "competence" as a politician.

------------

Alex Salmond is not "loved" by the whole of the Scottish population. He is viewed by many as being smug, although with the woeful opposition we have up here he's every right to be I suppose.

#68 oldnat

You're right and as there are no takers yet for the invitation in #67, I think I'll call it a night soon.

#60 sneckedagain wrote:

"Just a little point that should be noted. HBOS is most certainly not a Scottish bank . It is a large English bank with a smallish Scottish arm. Halifax is by far rhe biggest bit of HBOS and the BOS died when Halifax swallowed it."

I understand that one key aspect of BoS didn't die when it was gobbled up by Halifax. That's to say it's role as the only authorised issuer of Scottish banknotes.

It still surprises me to realise that the BoE was allowed to be created as an organisation which would support English government enterprises - and was never a real player in the commercial market - while the BoS was deliberately prohibited from being simply a "government bank".

I've never really understood why any organisation should be allowed to "print money" unless they hold tangible assets to fulfill the promises printed on the banknotes.

In England, that says "I promise to pay the bearer on demand, the sum of XXX".

But it really doesn't mean anything.

If BOS could be self-sufficient, were it not part of the HBOS, I'd be happy to see a dissolution of that marriage.

And see Halifax deal directly with the UK government to work out what it needs to become a proper business again.

Not so sure about RBS. Their problems seem to have been based on high-risk, over-priced international expansion. Thank goodness it was run by Scots, so we southerners don't get to share the blame - only the support costs.

"Brown /Darling are in a lose/lose situation on this one but it may take soemtime to pan out."

We're all in a lose/lose situation... Just can't believe it has been a Scottish non- economist who brought all of us to this point.

I very much like your Blogs on UK Politics Nick,but I think you need to do a lot of research on Scotland's.Absolutely nobody is predicting the death of Nationalism,.Not only is the SNP in power,but the Salmond Government is hugely popular,if that were not the case we would not be discussing the possibility of Labour losing this Seat.

Ah, print money, great idea, the IMF and all leading G8 conuntries should consider new monies to stabilise this situation and of course they could recoup it over the next 100 years or so.

Its only money, they could easily print new wealth.

Yes great idea!

Headline TV news today - the BBC is consumed by interest in itself - Jonathan Ross and Russell Brand. Oh yes - and of course - they getting all excited about an election (no - not that Scottish one!) Obama (of course).


The economy here is nose diving and there are going to be voters casting opinions on the government's performance. Yet - we have silence on the government and Glenrothes.


Posters above state the media want to retain Labour.

As for the BBC itself it is not difficult to conclude that the BBC (SL-Auntie??) is biased against the SNP.

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

ppl @ 27

A bit like Duelling Banjos, aren't we? - or perhaps not since people will be relieved to know that that was probably my one and only.

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Nick,

the famous unknown moderaters may decide that this one is inappropriate for your blog but I think not. I am studying Philosophy, Politics and Economics as well as having worked in the financial industry for over forty years.

What is my point. The government is having to borrow huge sums of money, they have in the past and they will in the future. How do they fund this, through Gilts as much as anything else.

One of these is Treasury 8% 2021, currently priced at 132.02. What does this mean to the man in the street, it means that you buy this at the current price and that in the year 2021 the government promises to redeem the stock at 100.00, or par. Yes folks, you can buy something in the market where the governmnet promises to give you 32.02 pounds less than what you paid for it. Now that is a really good deal.

One, you don't actually get 8% per year in interest, because tax is deducted and the real irony is that you can't even offset your guaranteed losses against Capital Gains Tax liability against gains on other investments.

Nick, this is a cruel duel, where there is only one winner and it is not the taxpaying public who will be left standing. It is knowledge which needs to be spread, not tittle tattle, but knowledge. Not whistleblowing, but information, transparency if you like.

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#78 TAG

I've just read your post.

I am sure what you say is true but it's hard to believe that the Government can get away with hoodwinking the public like this. If they expect other financial institutions to be transparent and they are not, surely this amounts to sharp practice.

Britain is better off without Nu Labour

And England is better off without Scotland




Therefore the more Scottish nationalist victories the better

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Dead cat bounce. Taxi for Brown.

So what will happen when blustering Brown collides with irrelevant Salmond? Hopefully they will both vanish in a puff of smoke.

Both are products of a political culture which has long ago failed to connect with reality. I call it Blairite politics.

As the poet Adrian Mitchell once put it:

`If you see a chair
And the chairs's not there
That's a Blair.'

Scotland can no more be an independent country as England could recover its empire. This is fools living in a glorious past now long gone.

In times like these we need each other and have to cleave to what we hold in common and not pick at the things that make us different.

I hope the electorate of Glenrothes votes other than SNP or Labour as neither of these parties has a clue as to what is going on.

Brown - ditching all previous convictions that 'Prime Ministers don't do by elections' - has already visited this hitherto virtually unknown constituency three times.

Nu Labour are poring all their resources into securing this seat (the only thing they haven't yet tried is to call the SNP candidate a 'toff' - but they probably will...

Now, as a result of all this Nu-Labour may - just may - retain a seat it holds with an over 10,000 majority.

And this is supposed to be an indicator of success?

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"Gordon Brown is now seen as an asset. The near collapse of Scotland's two major banks has raised real doubts about the capacity of this country to go it alone."

Hang on Nick, Gordon Brown was in charge of regulating the banks that nearly collapsed; if scotland was independent then they could have controlled their own banks' regulation and done a proper job.

How can Gordon Brown who basically caused the collapse of the scottish banks be regarded as an asset?

He personally caused not only the banking meltdown, but also the recession, by a combination of not bothering to regulate and allowing public/private debt to balloon, how on earth can he be regarded as the saviour when he's the architect of all the problems that we have?

I still fail to understand how the BBC can continue to spout the labour line that Gordon Brown has no responsibility for anything bad that's happened yet is somehow responsible for saving the planet.

A week or so ago the BBC had a "credit crunch trial" on newsnight.

Sadly, when it got to the prosecution case against the government, the BBC switched off the signal to Scotland and they had to watch something else instead.

'nuff said.

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Nick

You miss a rather important point.

Voting SNP is not a vote for independance; rather it is a vote for a referendum on independance.

Even if somone does not want independance, but supports the SNP sticking up for the scottish people they can still get what they want by voting SNP and then 'no' in any referendum on independance.

My money is on the SNP. The only thing that may put off some voters is the thought that this may be the fist step to getting all their MP's repatriated from wesminster, I understand that they don't want them either.

re: 75 T A Griffin (TAG)

There is an alternative but using the same kind of arguments.

The freedom of the BBC is indeed non-existent because it's funded by the tax-payer, so it's basically a government tool. They're naturally left-wing at the BBC so under a labour government the bias becomes even worse than under a tory government.

However, the solution, rather than trying to separate it technically from the government via more laws etc (ie to stop pressure from government), is to commercialise it entirely, so that it's no longer dependent on government; it thereby gains 100% freedom.

Privatise the BBC; that's the only way it's going to survive in the long term; people won't stomach a tax-payer funded tv organisation any more; the BBC's public status is, I think, going to come to an end fairly soon (at least I hope so).

That way they get all the freedom they want, they can be as biased as they want politically without getting scorn from tax-payers, and nobody has to pay 150 quid a year to not watch it. That is the only long term workable solution.

Why are we still paying 150 quid a year just so that they don't have to have adverts on the telly? I think it's doomed.

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Oh yes... my comment that got lost on the fist post... started a bit like...

-

As Brown has broken all his rules now - golden and about campaigning at by-elections...

Can we take it as read that Gordon sees this as a confidence vote in himself - and on that basis agree, now, that if Labour lose then Gordon must go?

It would be a shame for mandleson not to get another chance to resign for breaking the ministerial code.

[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]

Mandleson clearly has broken the code by refusing to answer questions about Oleg -- this certainly contravenes the rule on 'openess' on the final page...

Go on Nick -- take him down.

#81

Since when have I ever caused anybody 'faintly autistic' never, so do not even try going there.

Now I have referred Gordon Brown as a nose picking Aspidistra. Quote me on that if you like but never accuse me of using the term 'faintly autistic'.

Now I know you never actually say it was me but anybody reading your comment would assume that it was, many others have tried but failed, Project Griffin does not sleep.

In the meantime continue to listen to the de Menezes inquest.

This is a summary of an interview on Radio 5 Live Breakfast Show by Nicky Campbell interviewing Paul Gambaccini. Paul was very careful about what he said, but indicated that journalists ought to have investigated the background of what was going on in Radio 2 with more vigour.

At the end of the interview, Nicky sounded very chastened - when someone with the stature of Paul speaks the radio community listens.

https://my.telegraph.co.uk/cropper/blog/2008/10/31/paul_gambaccini_tells_it_as_it_is

I have searched the internet but a full transcript is not available - yet?