Go on, admit it. How many of you were tipping Mark Webber for the 2010 world championship at the start of the year?
Hugely popular, massively likeable, a sports nut who's as happy to shoot the breeze about Didier Drogba, Lance Armstrong or Ricky Ponting as he is to talk about Fernando Alonso, Adrian Newey or Bernie Ecclestone.
But Jenson Button's successor as the next Formula 1 champion? Alonso, Lewis Hamilton or Sebastian Vettel maybe, but not the 34-year-old Australian who had only won his first grand prix in 2009.
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After his worst run of results in Formula 1, Lewis Hamilton came to Suzuka looking for a strong start to a weekend that could make or break his challenge for the world championship.
If you think that sounds a touch melodramatic, then bear in mind the words of one McLaren leading official who told me on Thursday evening: "If he fails to score here, it's game over."
Having failed to finish three of his last four races and watched Mark Webber and Fernando Alonso overtake him in the standings, the last thing the 2008 champion needed was an early accident in practice.
But halfway through the first session, on his first proper run of the day, that's exactly what happened.
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