David Attenborough's Born Ultimatum
The Optimum Population Trust, which campaigns to limit the number of people on the planet in order to tackle climate change and other global ills, has just appointed Sir David Attenborough as a patron.
Many would agree with Sir David and the OPT that human overpopulation is the root cause of a lot of environmental problems. Six million humans are born every month, and each will emit anywhere from 0.1 tonnes of CO2 a year in Burkina Faso to 37 tonnes annually in Kuwait. By taking measures to reduce the planet's population now, so the argument goes, we would reduce emissions and make life easier for future generations.
So far so good. But is it true that 'the world's population is ... exploding', as the OPT claims? Depends on your definition of detonation. According to 'Panicology' by Simon Briscoe and Hugh Aldersey-Williams, only 'a minority of geographies' are exploding, while many countries are actually dwindling in population:
'The United Nations forecasts that nine countries will account for half of the world's projected population increase in the period up to 2050. These are India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, the US, Ethiopia and China ... with the population of the developed world remaining unchanged at around 1.2 billion.'
In fact, we are arguably already over the 'worst'. World population doubled in the 40 years from 1959 to 1999 - 3 billion to 6 billion - but the annual rate of increase has almost halved since its peak in 1963. The UN predicts that world population will ultimately stabilise somewhere in the region of 10 billion (click this link to launch a pdf of the report) with a significant proportion of the population increase due to improved life expectancy.
We've already had the 'Green Revolution' that ensured we didn't all starve in the 1980s. Who's to say we can't have a Carbon Revolution with room enough for everyone too?
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